ORH_wxman

Nice. Thanks Chris. Yeah that ORH number is close to mine. Even a bit earlier but I only did since 1991...long term will prob nudge slightly earlier with those 10/8/88 and 10/10/79 plus the 5 consecutive October snowfalls from 1960-1964. And the 1980s were really good for early/mid November snowfalls too. If I threw my 1995-2002 years into your numbers it might push back the date a day or so since those years averaged November 12th for first measurable.

Happy birthday to one of the biggest weenies of all time. Definite hall of famer. Hopefully we can grab a snow event next week as a belated present.

First freeze for ORH. They hit 33 a couple weeks ago but couldnt quite get that last degree.

Your numbers are a couple days earlier than ORH which is surprising. Though you go back prior to 1991 which is where I started. 1988 was really early on 10/8 so that would prob push back the date. Then add in the early November 1987 and 1986 snowfalls and that prob pushes it back even further.

I don't have the numbers for everyone else, but just doing a quick calculation for ORH since 1990, I get November 20th as average first measurable. (Obviously average first trace happens earlier) So your guesstimate range was accurate. Maybe Chris could pull up the official averages for everyone at his finger tips. My ORH numbers include the lost 1995-2002 years when had a couple October snowfalls so they are probably different than the official ncdc numbers. (But mine will be more accurate)

Maybe. But that negative height anomaly near Hudson Bay and just east of there counts too. That's part of the domain...so even if you say Greenland cancels out the central Atlantic, Hudson Bay to just south of Baffin Island is going to tip it. Regardless, the cfs pattern is much more classic for -NAO.

Yeah. That's actually even more than I thought initially was incorporated down in the Atlantic basin.

GGEM is pushing the 11/8 idea

He's saying those positive anomalies over Greenland have no response to the south and southwest on the cansips. Look at that swath of positive height anomalies across the Atlantic exactly where the negative anomalies are on the cfs. That looks like a positive NAO pattern despite the anomalies over Greenland. So it might technically be negative based on the cpc definition, it actually behaves more like a positive NAO for our downstream sensible wx.

We tried to tell them.

The positive height anomaly is kind of blah, but that swath of good negative anomalies stretching from the central Atlantic all the way back into the northeast is very classic -NAO response. Either way, we'd take it.

It was breezy out for trick or treating with my son but nothing too bad. Mostly dry. A bit of drizzle near the end. Def glad they didn't cancel it. The mild evening made it nice not to have to bundle up.

Nothing will ever beat him selling hot dogs at the local high school baseball game when he could have been chasing in southern MA on 6/1/11

Seems like people forgot 2017 really quickly.

Are people really feeling the difference between 65/63 and 59/56? Not arguing it's not a torch...but I think we can measure that with the temps.

Def impressive dews....but I'd rather measure the torch aspect by temps. Nobody in winter is going to be pimping -30F dewpoints if the 2m temps stay comfortably above record values. Well maybe a few weenies like us on here but nobody else will care. Recod high mins are where we can measure it more directly.

Yep. Lol. Gonna be an epic SE MA winter now.

First snow event inside of 200h now? GFS has it at 186-192. Lol Euro should track it through Ottawa in a couple hours.

Yeah this is wipeout city. But luckily the pattern looks pretty good for snow making coming up. They'll be blowing a ton of snow in the next two weeks.

If you don't radiate then it's even a bit late for freeze. But the Lowell coop up there actually had first freeze 10/6. That's earlier than their 10/14 average. But they are clearly a rad spot.

I think he meant the consistency of the 50s and 60s. Usually we have at least a few days in the 40s mixed in but we haven't really had that. Even the 70s have been pretty rare. It's been really steady slightly above average. ORH has had exactly one day with highs in the 40s (47 this past Sunday). That's not really typical. We haven't had that signature cold shot that gives many their first freeze. Mostly just the rad spots got freezes. I wouldn't say its overly rare though. I remember 1994 and 1998 being quite mild. Obviously we remember the super torch of 2017 but that was different than this month which was really steady.

It does look like we start to lose the EPO block toward mid-month and beyond, but we'll have to see as we get closer that it's not breaking down too quickly which happens often.

SW CT was living large for many years ...but they've missed the meat of some of the recent snow blitzes like March 2018 (2nd big one that month was mostly east), Dec 2017 (missed most of the Xmas storm), Feb 2017 (round two was mostly north of HFD-PVD), and even the best of Feb '15 was east though everyone got in on it. They were jackpotting a bunch in 2010-2013 time frame. I'm sure they'll be some storms soon where they cash in more.

I've never heard of that before this year. We had octo-bomb in 2011 move the trick or treating but that was an extreme case with trees down in a bunch of towns. I remember trick or treating in rain multiple times when younger. 1991 and 1993. Hell, '91 was windy too on the tail end of the perfect storm. Rain was winding down but it was nasty out. '93 was brutal too. Like 35F and rain.

Yeah that's actually pretty classic for mid-winter extreme Arctic outbreaks. I remember years ago going back and looking at our top 10-15 worst ones and a huge majority of them have a big positive height anomaly deep into the Arctic Ocean versus just over AK. There's a bit of Atlantic support on this setup too. For those rooting for snow, it's actually probably better to cut the 11/8 system and delay the heart of the cold plunge several days. The longwave pattern gets a bit more favorable and you gain some climo (esp up in the source region where they are losing 5-6 minutes a day of sun).