ORH_wxman

I thought it was more amped than the Euro for sure. It's the 84h NAM though....lol

12z NAM is def more amped than the flat 06z run....clown range for NAM, but the changes were a bit earlier....like mentioned yesterday, watch that shortwave in Canada around 66-72 hours. Note how the 12z nam is quite a bit further southwest that shortwave than the 06z run...that gives us a more amped look edit: this fooking forum still having trouble with animated gifs....so GD annoying.... here's the side by side comparison. 12z on right, 06z left

There's definitely a nice looking ribbon of ML fronto potential on this. It's pretty classic for a stripe of heavier snow along that ribbon wherever it sets up. Some of these model runs are trying to wind this up a little bit too before it exits stage right...we'll have to watch that. If it trends a little deeper as we get closer on the late blooming aspect, then we'd have to watch for another area of ML fronto enhancement that starts tilting more NE-SW or even NNE/SSW...but that's something to worry about closer in.

06z EPS came in a little flatter too like the OP. Not surprising. Seems to generally mirror the OP trends and it's not a major shift. But that's probably what you want to see if you are south of the pike...keep the mid-level warmth at bay.

Lol...yeah it happened twice to you. I forgot that. In the 12/29/12 event too.

06z euro only goes to 90h right before the event starts but fwiw, it looks slightly suppressed from 00z. Still consider that model noise 4 days out.

Scooter throwing furniture and breaking windows like Nov 2012 when Jerry was doing naked snow angels in Brookline and you were getting a 34F downpour?

Yeah but Tday was early on 11/22...occurred only 6 days after the nov 15-16 event. Tday is nov 28 this year.

Lol, we'd probably lose all of our snowpack by 11/20 even if we got hit by both storms. Too early to maintain it at our latitude...esp with the pattern looking like it may relax a little. But i hope we get another event right before Tday

This is prob a tough setup for the south coast in general. Still a ways to go, but we'd probably want to see the cold press another 50-100 miles south before the wave moves in to benefit the south coast.

Well unless there's a good block. In those cases, you can rule out scenarios like ORH to TOL raining. But this is fast flow with southern stream interaction being a key piece...even if not a full phase....but the system origin is southern stream and then the northern stream sort of takes it over on a euro scenario as a little southern streak ejects across Oklahoma and Arkansas and the northern stream gobbles it up. To get this more north than the euro, two things can do it: 1. Northern stream digs even further southwest 2. Southern stream ejects a lot more energy quicker. Or some combo of the two.

One of SNE's worst icing events on record was November 26-28, 1921. Right to the coast too...over an inch of ice in a huge area with Pretty decent swaths over 2 inches thick. It was a cold event that started as snow and had some sleet mixed in during the latter part of the ice storm. Temps mostly in the 20s unlike the December 2008 ice storm which was marginal temps of 30-31F. November 17, 2002 had a bad one near and just south of the pike. Esp N CT. I remember ORH having decent ice but sleet cut it down a bit compared to further south where some spots got half an inch. There's been some lighter ones too...Thanksgiving 1985 actually knocked power out to some towns in ORH county. So they do happen even if rarer than winter months.

Could honestly end up anywhere in a 300-500 mile wide band. It's an unmanned firehose look. But I agree the fast flow and limited time for amplification will make it tough to get too far north. But if that southern stream ejects a bit stronger, you could end up with a congrats Montreal and powderfreak easily. But the models are where you want them to be right now...either SNE hit or too suppressed. THat can still change.

Euro ensembles are a really solid look at 114-120. Starting to get into a non-fantasy zone here.

Euro going for another threat on 11/12. As mentioned earlier, prob multiple shortwaves to watch in the pattern over the next 10-12 days.

Yeah the southern stream seems pretty constant on most guidance. Smaller differences. The northern stream though is swinging wildly. Not surprising given the source region. That shortwave is probably sitting over wrangel island or Siberia somewhere right now with sparse data network.

The big key in this system is seeing how much the northern stream can interact with the southern stream....notice the huge difference in the northern stream from the GGEM to the GFS....these are today's 12z runs. The GGEM has the northern stream much further southwest than the GFS....this allows the southern stream to phase into it later on which produces the system further north and impacting us Now notice the GFS....northern stream shortwave is barely in the picture: This will be something important to watch going forward if this is going to prodce.

GGEM gone wild....

For anyone who has to be up early in the morning (and I find is especially bad with with kids), DST absolutely blows donkey balls. Really glad we've fallen back. I'm fine with DST from April to maybe early October, but this BS of waiting until November and going as early as March 8-10 really sucks.

Lot of cold around and we get a reload around d9-10. There will prob be a couple potential shortwaves to track including the suppressed one next Friday which could easily come back. Fast flow is never easy on guidance. I wouldn't expect a plowable event but the pattern can support one of the timing is there. It is definitely a thread-the-needle setup though.

Lol my post was in jest too. But if we're counting, November snowfall is actually usually a good sign. Last year was in the minority.

We need some different rules for November. 2012 had 6"+ in the interior on Nov 7 and it ended up a huge winter. We had other years too with big early/mid Nov snows like 2004, 1987, and 1986 that were good winters too. Maybe "if the storm gives over 8" and it occurs on a Friday and happens within 3 days of the ides of November" then it will be a ratter winter.

That's incorrect. Son of Sandy was 11/7/2012. This would be the day after.

Euro...SNE smoked. Lol.

They're gonna be able to build a huge base the next two weeks. Should be some really cold nights where they can become very efficient versus the more marginal nights. Good news for the World Cup there. Hopefully no 12-18 hour tropical cutters 2nd half of month. That's really the only thing that can ruin it.