ORH_wxman

Agreed. I feels like it's more a C-1" for SNE except the Berkshires and NW CT where hey could get some upslope assist post-front.

Expectations out of whack after last year. They are usually out of whack anyway this time of year but I think last year's snow and record cold outbreak made it worse this year. You're gonna be good for warning snows in this...we're probably screwed down here unfortunately unless we can get some anafront wave action. Too bad because something a little slower and digging further could give everyone pretty good snows without too much "stealing of snow". But maybe 1-3" can still happen for a bunch of folks.

In SNE we probbably want to root for slower like Tip mentioned. Flatter isn't gonna happen this close in where we stay all snow wire to wire...it just is too much ground to make up too close in....but we could catch some action at the end if we can slow everything down and redevelop a wave further south on the frontal boundary. 18z gfs def got warmer toward the euro. But it still has some post-frontal snows as it is digging the trough more.

Euro is definitely the warmest of any guidance but it took a little tick colder. You can def see it in NNE. Didn't make much difference for us down here since it was rain either way. A little more precip is trying to hang back post-front though. That's a trend we'll want to see.

Euro tickling colder. Won't be enough for SNE I don't think, but better to tick colder than not.

Even then it's been questionable in recent years. It runs hot and cold. I like to use it in CAD since it does well showing the BL holding tough.

Ukie doesn't look bad. Hard to tell with 12 hour increments but def some accumulating snow in SNE I think. Looks a bit like NAM or GFS.

Yeah a little tickle colder. We'd need a lot more help to think about warning snows in SNE though. I'm just hoping to get measurable...an inch or two for the Arctic blast. Would be nice if euro comes on board for a period of snow at the end.

Reggie ain't playing ball for SNE.

NAM has a period of ZR or FZDZ before the snow over the interior....I could def see some icing issues even in a bit of a warmer solution in the midlevels because with the exception of the euro, the sfc low is tracking to the southeast. Euro basically tracks it overhead.

NAM is a pretty good way to get most people involved in accumulating snow. But I ain't buying it until there's some more support. GFS kind of did that at 06z though a little less robust.

GFS flips us to snow for an inch or two. Euro is putrid though. Furthest NW and no snow...maybe a few flakes to end it.

The stronger push south of the cold actually helps in this scenario to create better frontogenesis. So hopefully we get that. You get that push south and then the second shortwave has to run the system into a much colder airmass which produces good thermal packing and better fronto and prob more defined midlevels....but it seems we're not going to get that and instead it's going to ride along the weaker frontal boundary that stays NW and the system stays elongated. But who knows...still enough time for it to change but it has to really start trending hard tonight or early tomorrow I'd think.

When I was up in Rangeley in the summer of 2015, all of the locals were terrified that the mountain was not going to open the next year. (They were right...4 years running) They kept saying how important it was to the local economy. Glad to see they will be back.

Yeah the wet look there angers me....lol. That would drive me nuts. Vail and some of the other Colorado resorts have them too and I get irrationally angry when I see pic of them.

Keep an eye on late next week too into next weekend.

Still need many more ticks on Euro....this is incremental. But at least the NW trend has halted for the moment and there's a few models that give us some snow. So while I'm pretty skeptical of much of anything, still cannot rule it out.

Euro coming in a bit flatter/colder too...but not like the Ukie.

Yeah it's like when SNE weenies post those maps last year at 96 hours and then by 60 hours out powderfreak was talking with 3 other people about getting buried while the rest of us were talking about an inch or two before a flip to ZR and rain.

Flurries here. Good to see daytime flakes flying even if it's not first measurable.

That was a good ukie shift. And I agree that is probably a good snow event for interior SNE. I'll pay a little more attention since it led the way with the initial westward tracks.

GFS is a bit more suppressed than 06z so far....won't be enough for SNE this run, but might be good enough for CNE.

Reggie is actually fairly suppressed and prob would be pretty snowy for at least N of pike. Yeah its clown range....

Ha. That would be hilarious to see either 12z or 00z tonight violently swing back to the colder look.