ORH_wxman

Biggest factor I found over the years was RH...you basically need close to full saturation to get refreeze on untreated roads and preferably for several hours. Like just an hour or two may not really be enough to make it bad. Even something like we had the other day with the anafront changeover was almost too marginal...we had an hour or two maybe with High RH and below freezing temps but the strong NW winds were actually keeping RH a bit lower than optimal. Like it was snowing at 31/25 or something and some of that standing water was evaporating and then everything ended quickly and we dried out really really quickly. By far the best way to get flash freezes around here are the cold tucks from the NE...usually there's still precip going on when that happens...even if light...and we don't get that downslope drying. But obvioisly a more organized anafront can get it done...3/8/05 has kind of always been the poster child for that.

Yeah would've been nice to grab 2 or 3 inches for this cold shot...but man, this is still impressive. There's a little tiny marsh pond I have to drive by before I get to my sons preschool and it was completely frozen this morning. Pretty crazy for 11/13. It's not even like 11/27 or something where some ice isn't that weird but still indicative of below average temps...this is really early for this type of stuff. We don't really get a chance to warm that much before that next little nasty cold shot this weekend.

GFS was garbage around d5-7 range but I feel like once we got to d3-4, GFS beat it as it was showing that uglier look with the low along the front looping up through interior SNE and the euro finally latched on once inside of 60h.

It's definitely extremely marginal. It would take a lot of things to go right to get legit snow out of the d7 system.

Yep. Even after the rest of the cold bias, it is still awful in CAD and marine influence.

The euro was not far off from the gfs solution. So it's plausible. I would still hedge toward something less exciting at d7 but it's something to watch.

Prob fake news below 900-925 though over elevated interior. Esp given the model.

Got quite a bit colder this run. Looked like PNA ridge area got higher heights. -NAO look too.

Nothing obvious. Have to watch the d7 system maybe for something sneaky in a marginal airmass.

Record was 33F. So they got pretty close. A degree or two closer than I thought they would but a record nonetheless. Looks like BOS got to 33F as well. Maybe 34 between obs but I don't have the detailed site up on my phone. Easy record though even with the issues there. 36F was the record at BOS. ORH hit 25F so far. That obliterates the old record of 32F.

Right. That's why it would be really tough to win public opinion on the idea. The idea of mountain lions roaming around the woods and waiting to ambush an unsuspecting hiker triggers our deepest survival instincts which is to focus on and eliminate the predatorial threat. Not the more abstract and modern issue of deer causing car crash fatalities.

Them too.

I always say it about once per year...but reintroduce the cougar. I think people are too panicky for it to happen any time soon but it would actually likely save lives if we did it. It would reduce the number of deer car crash fatalities by a significantly higher number than the rogue fatal attack on a jogger or hiker.

This has been getting more robust across guidance as we get closer. May have to watch for something sneaky because of it. It's been a while since we had a real nice NAO block in the early cold season...we had a great one in March 2018 that really helped that year finish with a bang. Would be nicer to have it in December but we might be able to get an event in 2nd half of November here if it can hold strong.

The 1911 record would have been at the old site in Hartford.

Nobody downslopes like BDL on a NW wind.

If it's supposed to be for BOS then there's a lot of errors there. Only 4 months were set in the 2010s and one of them has a massive ** next to it (July 2019) as it only beat 1983 by 0.7 and we know how warm Logan is running right now...unlikely it was warmer than several other years that were within 1.5-2F too. 2 of the "seasons" were also not in the 2010s....hottest summer (1949 and 1983 tied) and hottest winter (2001-2002)

For which site is this? It's not true for BOS.

http://threadex.rcc-acis.org/

Apparently Logan Asos checked out so it must be a siting issue around the Asos station and not the instrumentation itself? Not sure what would it be...maybe they called up Stowe to install a heated sidewalk to the fence there.

Ya'll can come out to the woods behind my house and take out as many deer as you want...they are relentless in stealing my bird seed. If you like gamey bird meat, there's about a thousand wild turkeys back there too.

Wonder if ORH can put up a sub-26F high....the earliest they've ever done it was 11/20 when they put up 23F for a high in 1951. They put up 26F last year on 11/15, the day of the snow event which was the earliest sub-27F high (also not broken until that 11/20 date previously) Both 2m model temps and MOS say it may be done...both are around 24-25F.

Record low maxes today: BOS: 36F (1874) ORH 32F (2013) BDL: 33F (1911) PVD: 37F (1911) CON: 30F (1894) PWM: 33F (1990) BTV: 28F (1916) Hard to see any of these standing up....even the BOS battle of ** vs Oxen of yore

Haha...I wonder what the narrative would be if it was a furnace November. I somehow doubt it would be "we're going to get record cold this winter."

Yes that is finger lake effect snow. Pretty classic. Need about 330-340 flow which is what they have. It's usually best if you have he Georgian bay connection going over the top of a weak ridge but they don't really have that this morning so the snow showers prob aren't too heavy.