ORH_wxman

Yeah if that upper air solution actually verified, I'd expect a lot of SNE to flip to snow actually. It would probably trend colder in the MLs as we got closer...it's probably flushing the fresh -10C 850s we get 18-24 hours earlier a bit quick too as an aside from the dynamical cooling aspect...or at least not allowing that drier mid-level air to hang tougher.

It's a very dynamic solution aloft...that would honestly probably be enough to flip a lot of people to parachutes. Of course, its' also 5+ days out...so I'm sure it will hold serve...

That's really close in the interior of SNE....its like between 0-1C isothermal at 18z Sunday.

Northeats of you....ORH hills down to NE CT/NW RI.

Yeah the IVT tries to blow up a bit before it moves east...may need to watch for a little burst on the coast late tomorrow PM into evening.

Euro tries to give the interior hills a weenie inch or so tomorrow.

I'd def rather have it a bit SE at this time range than NW with the marginal airmass in place and not a ton of confluence. Hope it trends stronger into a hit...that would help with dynamic cooling as well.

Yeah Ukie and GGEM are whiffs...but worth keeping an eye on....there's enough cold for some snow over the interior anyway....maybe to the coast like the GFS has.

We knew you'd embrace the GFS eventually

Gonna want the mid-levels to develop like this or better

Here's the BOS sounding tomorrow afternoon...

Dont' be surprised at a lot of weenie snow around tomorrow....soundings look pretty decent.

New Years 2018 was pretty good.

A lot of our best Decembers didn't have a great PAC pattern. 2007, 2002 (interior), even 1995 was so-so....amazing NAO block though. Kind of weird actually. I'll have to make a composite of the top 10 decembers and see if that holds when I add in all the other good years.

Right...but your "big storm" bias is showing here. Who said anything about "crushed"? It wouldn't take that much for like a 3-6" advisory type over the elevated interior. Is it favored? No. But we can't rule it out.

It prob plays into the subconscious bias...I've seen a lot of marginal setups work out in the interior over the years. Obviously near the coast it doesn't happen as often.

It's admittedly an uphill battle...but there's this shot of brief (but real) cold on Friday night/Saturday. So if that can set the stage enough...we could pull off something over the interior. The storm itself needs to be a little better organized too.

#ineedahug

Euro is legit close to snow over interior on sunday morning. I wouldn't totally give up on that one yet.

Slight nitpick....but BOS had 23.1" in the Feb 7-9, 2015....so not technically two feet. Though they probably slightly under measured according to most of the obs around them.

Not sure if one of the theadex type sites can do it....Chris has a link to a good one that isn't just the extremes. I don't have the averages for BDL for 12"+ storms. For ORH, since 1950, there have been 80 events of 12"+....but obviously some winters go without one. So in those 69 winters, 44 of them had at least one 12"+ event. That means 25 of them did not. So if you go by the binary "yes" or "no"....then the probability of getting at least one event would be 64%. BDL is a significantly worse spot for big storms than ORH, so my guess is the odds would be somewhere around half of ORH's. Maybe a bit more....like 35-40%. I know this information is available somewhere in the climate normals in the NCDC (now NCEI) probability sections, but I cannot navigate that disaster of a site anymore. Not user-friendly at all for finding those values.

Glad we don't live there

I had to miss the snowfall that morning...I was torching down in NJ....but we came home to a fresh 5.5-6.0"....and bitter cold. It's definitely been a bleak streak of white Xmas's around here....for ORH which averages about 60-65% chance for a white christmas, here's the past 10 years: 2009: About 7" pack...mostly from the 12/19-20 storm that really crushed SE MA 2010: About 2" mostly from the retro storm on 12/20-22 that got the Cape with a foot 2011: Bare ground 2012: 1 inch of fresh falling snow that morning....last second rescue as model guidance was kind of meh on the snow. But then it started falling predawn and lasted 3-4 hours. 2013: Swiss cheese pack of about 2-3 inches that survived the grinch storm leftover from the big snows that fell between 12/9-12/17 2014: Bare gorund 2015: Bare Ground 2016: Patches....but counts as bare ground...i think 2-3 inches survived up by Hubbdave 2017: Xmas morning 4-6" on top of about 2-3" leftover from earlier 2018: Bare ground So we've gone 4 out of the last 5 with bare ground or mostly bare ground. Pretty bad...and even 2013 wasn't a clean pack, and 2012 had to be rescued by a fluffy inch. We had a good run in the 2000s....between 2000-2010, we had 8 out of 11 (only 2001, 2004, and 2006 failed)

Probably but it's not impossible to get something next Sunday. GFS/GGEM were fish food while Euro was too warm....something in between is what the Ukie is going for.

Were you sleeping during Christmas 2017?