ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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Start at a million...can always adjust upward if needed.
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That is a rather windy Thanksgiving on the 12z Euro...prob some snow showers too.
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The block doesn't look different on this run vs previous runs (if anything, the 06z run had a slightly stronger block)....but the southern stream is looking weaker and the northern stream is not diving into it as much...so I think that was that.
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Yeah it's literally perfect for SNE...it probably would cause some dynamic snow over the elevated interior if that happened. But if we could deepen it a little more, even better. This pattern like 2-3 weeks from now would be pretty sweet.
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Yeah basically we need a Euro type track but maybe just a hair deeper with the upper low...so if it nukes out a bit more than shown, then we'd probably have a big dynamic flip to heavy wet snow. Obviously that's a lot of things that need to go right.
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As in any very marginal setup...keep expectations low.
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Yeah that's super close....maybe a WaWa walloper?
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Not a ton better here though.....
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Hanging from the chairlift by your reindeer sweater on the 12z Euro...
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I don't think I've ever seen an ensemble mean have heights this jacked in the arctic region on a D16 prog....lol. I thought the last 36 hours of the GEFS were impressive, but they weren't this sick. GEFS gone wild.
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We need that ULL to close off and see if the fun can get into the ORH hills. That 12z solution was kind of weak and open.
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Yeah that was a nice move by the NAM....from a Killington-Gene-Alex crusher to a whiff for even SNE....lol
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Looks like a ski area special right now....could be a nice base builder for them. Hopefully this tracks a little further south for the interior peeps in CNE or SNE....but the models the last 2 runs have been pretty consistent actually. They seem to be honing in over a Cape type track....but if this does scoot a little east then it brings a lot more of the interior in play for a dynamic flip.
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Def liking the pattern into December. Even as the NAO tries to wane near end of run, the PAC is getting really favorable.
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You lost me on the phantom Mar '16 storm.
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Flakeage on WaWa base cams. So that's around 1000-1100 feet or so.
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Still pretty warm in the LLs. We'll have to wait until the wind shifts NW. It's still out of the NE at ORH. It's too bad it's not a little colder right now because this precip is blossoming pretty good.
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Yep. Pretty good agreement with 18z euro on starting this from A Mitch-ORH axis and then beware of the little blowup in coastal E MA late tomorrow PM and early evening.
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It's possible. I prob wouldnt forecast that but it wouldn't be shocking if that occurred. I'd like to see a little more defined sfc IVT than shown right now to be confident in more than snow showers.
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Gonna be in Quincy until 3pm. Maybe I'll weenie through Chickatawbut Rd on the way back. Lol
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Def the most favored area. Esp elevations. But this could pop a little further SE as we go through the afternoon....gotta watch for a little surprise. It gets pretty chilly aloft...I don't hate the soundings and we get the classic almost-calm look in the midlevels. Hopefully there's enough LL convergence. Keep expectations low but keep an eye on the radar tomorrow.
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Justt saw the 18z euro. That was pretty weenie-ish as far as weak IVTs go.
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Yeah that's not bad. It isn't the Siberian express, but it's serviceable if that's what December looked like.
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Heights have been shifting a lot from run to run int he EPO region....guidance is definitely struggling there.
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