ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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Lol, look at this sounding from the new HRR for ORH....that is how you dynamically flip....that's obscene omega in the snow growth region. That what it will take.
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Yeah I got no issues with the first half of December as of now...just as long as people aren't expecting 2003 or 2007 to walk through that door....keep expectations in perspective, but I do think we'll have a couple good chances in there.
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That stinger on the HRRR is epic. It's not a surprise it would flip the interior to snow on that. I just don't trust that there will actually be a stinger that intense. It's punching big VVs up to like 400mb in that thing....lol
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Yeah that's gonna be fun...lol. Hey, we got the tix for face value though so can't complain too much. I feel bad for those who might have scalped then for 800 bucks.
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NAM is really interesting later. It flips ORH down to Kevin. Prob even gives some accumulations. But I don't really trust it here.
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Reminds me of the 3/2 storm last year. We got duped by about two model cycles 36-48 hours out...including the euro...that was slamming us with 8-15" of snow only to slide back east and turned into a 2-4" event. We did get the big 3/4 event a couple days later to take the sting out a bit but that was still a rough model headfake.
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The ghost of messenger haunting N Greens....reindeer sweaters just littering the chairlifts and trees.
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It could end as some snow. Tough call but it probably wouldn't be enough to accumulate unless it's really pounding. Models have a hell of a stinger though so worth keeping an eye on....esp up toward hubbdave and Chris.
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12z NAM looks like it is tickling back SE a bit this run but the 06z run was mega-zonked so that isn't a shock.
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If you don't have to make a decision until tonight, you could see another full round of guidance (plus 18z runs) to see if there is a tick in either direction. If it ticks SE then obviously Loon is the choice.
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Kmart is prob safer than Loon.
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At the current airport location since 1948...it has been 36 out of 71 Novembers with less than 1". 24 of those failed to get measurable. (Most of them a trace...only 5 failed to produce even a trace)
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Well not surprising with Sunday River's superior snow making operation and the cold we've had. They've also had some natural snow to help out and hopefully they'll get hit with another 6"+ on the back end of this one.
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No overthinking it...go to the Stowe hottubs at the hotel. They're gonna get destroyed unless we get the messenger shuffle. If we do get it, then go park up near wildcat.
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Yeah the NAO is trying to push 12/2 south. But I agree the best look for winter threats is probably the following week when the cold is more established. At least that's the way it looks now. Back when we were all more level-headed years ago, we used to talk about how guidance tried to rush the changes...probably same deal here.
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Your neighbors said they saw a few chairs go through your living room window.
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You need the messenger shuffle. Or you could just throw a tirade like Scooter did a couple days before the 3/4 event this year and then all the next runs turned into a jackpot for him. You might have that same power.
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I'd be pretty pumped if we can dryslot down in Foxborough by 4pm...I'll be at the game and don't need to be watching in a 37F deformation rain band.
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We're all of the sudden getting more phasing from the northern stream which hasn't been present since some of the runs 2+ days ago.
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Powerfreak can hang the ARW solution this evening to his wall
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It really doesn't sting that much this early. You can count on one hand how many snowfalls over 10" have occurred at ORH (1000 feet in interior SNE) in the month of November. And you can probably count on 2 hands the number over 6 inches. Nevermind somewhere on the coastal plain.
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They would def play a big role. Though even the lower areas would do well in CNE if the GFS verified. Btw, 18z euro trended poorly. Open wave and not the deepening MLs we're looking for.
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Prob like 90-95%...maybe 75% for ORH. At least for anything accumulating. It def could end as a few mangled flakes pretty easily.
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The runs today have deepened the core of the ULL more than before...which is the trend we need for snow. So we're seeing a little more dynamic cooling in the meat of the deformation precip. We'll see if we can cool things another tick...but CNE is starting to maybe thread the needle here?
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Chicken coop collapser on the 18z gfs. Destroys monads and Mitch too.
