ORH_wxman

YEah my gut is the pellets tickle the pike region but probably after most of the meat of the WCB has fallen...CT is a tougher call. There's some runs that show a large portion of the WCB as being sleet...but some show a lot of snow first.

Watch the WCB portion from like E CT up through SE NH...it actually tries to get some easterly inflow by the time it reaches that point so it is in the beginning stages of transforming into the CCB. There could be some big time enhancement there for a time.

Pretty hard not to get excited looping the EPS at 72-96 hours...that's about as good as it gets for SNE. If there's one nitpick, maybe cool the column a little more to remove the threat of taint for southern zones during the WAA, but otherwise that is full green light for bigtime snow amounts.

Both statements are true?

GFS tickling a little colder than 18z...through 72 hours.

Yeah even though there might be a bit of taint in CT...that's still looking pretty decent.

NAM is setting up for a pretty nice round 2 at the end of it's run....Kevin's days and days of snow.

18z def coming in a bit warmer.

That could be underforecasted quite a bit on guidance. Mid-level magic look and I like the deep layer inflow.

That's actually a pretty sweet look Monday night.

Chickens walking on bare ground that run.

Holding serve pretty much through 78h. Maybe just the slightest hair colder.

Yeah. We're looking at a powerful ULL and it is dec 1-2. Really early in season. I feel like there's going to want to be a tug north...I've always felt ptype issues are the main worry for anyone south of MA/NH border rather than suppression.

Might almost taint ORH on the mean. Close call. But the GFS suite is definitely the warmest right now. I still have a feeling we're gonna need some buffer in the final 36-48 hours. That's a really vigorous ULL that will produce plenty of SE convection.

It's possible if this evolves right, someone could put up a monster total there. I don't want to start speculating on numbers this far out as this could still flip the script and end up mostly for the reindeer sweaters, but that prolonged deep layer easterly and northeasterly flow could really benefit the interior hills.

Don't worry. We're only about 24 hours away from the zonked runs that start a rapid-fire set of posts from you to dryslot...then the messenger shuffle will pull the rug out at the last second and as that happens, we'll see dendrite pretend he doesn't want 18" of snow for a couple posts and then he will eventually cheer it on....Scooter will throw a tantrum and then he gets into a CJ setup by Monday and Monday night and ends up with over a foot. Ginxy will insist you're still getting at least 20 inches of light synoptic plus upslope while you forecast 4-7". Lava rock complains his way to a foot in the CCB on Monday evening.

GFS has been the furthest north for several runs now so it's not a surprise at all if it comes south. More interesting will be whether the other globals come south again.

Oh sorry. Lol. I must've missed those posts. I woulda posted it if I saw them.

It's not whiffing. We prob want it a bit south for the inevitable north tick that happens between 48 and 24 hours when he models start sensing all the southern convection....then we get the messenger shuffle inside 24h that ticks it back a shade SE. But you gotta withstand that 48 to 24 trend.

Seems like you are in a bit better mood today...you must've released all that anger you had from Ryan warning people about the snow potential by taking our advice and spraying all those dog dookies against the fence. I'm glad.

I've been watching Scooter high on each model run...even as close as like 54-60 hours...it was obvious it was coming in colder.

I thought the heads-up was being nice...lol. It's fine to ask questions...but if everyone asked what a model shows for their backyard, the threads would get totally cluttered with those same questions. Thats why I said "blatent IMBY questions"....I think asking for a general area is a little easier to handle.

FYI this is a good way to get suspended from the site. Blatant IMBY questions are frowned upon.

Yep. Tickled a little better again. Scooter high came in about 2mb better.