ORH_wxman

That RGEM run was ridiculous. Ticked a little colder too.

It's all about lift. The lift is kind of meh on the NAM until like after 00z which helps that warm nose lift further north. Then it tries to crash back down (esp below 800mb) when the bigger lift hits.

The stuff Monday afternoon/night is definitely favored to be better further west. It's looked that way for a few runs now. But eastern spots will probably get in on it late Monday night and early Tuesday.

Meh. The ASH area is in one of the best spots for front end. Gonna be hard to jack in both parts of the storm. This is an incredible event for this early in the season so unless someone really gets raked over the coals in an epic subsidence zone and gets like 3" for the entire event...then they aren't getting my empathy.

That map is excluding the front end precip.

He's lurking in the weeds waiting for the token uber amped euro run that jackpots him to Hermiker NY.

Ukie one looks off over a lot off central and Easter SNE but that is probably not the clown map's fault...More a function of the Ukie torching the lower levels. It frequently seems to do that in coastals.

Yeah the late Monday and Monday night stuff is interesting...the midlevel tracks have been consistently pretty good despite the little qpf maxima shifting around quite a bit. I could see some overperfing fluff bands in that as midlevel soundings get really nice for a while. A lot of it depends on the little vortmaxima pinwheeling around the ULL too.

Yeah the ageo component is already like due north by late Sunday night and prob NNW or NW by Monday morning...that's gonna just rapidly drain those 20s right to like HVN if they do creep above freezing for a time before that. So may have to watch for a flash freeze there...further north, HFD area prob never makes it above freezing is my guess.

Also agree with Ryan RE: surface temps...:take the under for much of the region that is west of I-95 and north of about a PVD to HVN line. We may actually see temps fall during late Sunday night/predawn monday as the sfc low strengthens off to the southeast.

There will probably be a lot of that the final 6-8 hours. Wouldn't surprise me if weenie flakes linger much of the day Tuesday in eastern areas. But the accumulating stuff is probably ending early Tuesday morning there.

Prob early morning sometime. Eastern areas it may linger into early afternoon. It depends exactly on the ULL obviously.

Depends where you are. I think the further northeast you are, round 1 is better. But I agree round 2 is probably going to be undernodeled in many spots. Even on this euro run after it destroys western zones, it looks good further east Monday night.

WCB crushes. And then it's still pretty good Monday night. But Monday morning and midday could be mixed crapola. Still hard to complain though for Dec 1-2

WCB crushes. And then it's still pretty good Monday night. But Monday morning and midday could be mixed crapola. Still hard to complain though for Dec 1-2

Ukie likes to torch the low levels on coastals so it prob isn't showing a lot for BOS.

Need to ask ginxy to post those weird ukie qpf maps. Or Ray I think has access to them on his vendor.

Yep. BOS area got smoked by the CF enhancement.

I nicknamed jbenedet "The Pope" because his screename reminded of Pope Benedict

Euro looked more cohesive on the qpf maps. The mid-levels look pretty good on the soundings. I could see qpf being a little underdone in round 2 while overdone in round 1. Though someone is gonna get crushed for a time in round 1 as that flow start to turn easterly....classic bent back WF...that looks most likely up in eastern and northeastern areas. Round 2 could be sneaky good out west though...even as round 1 isn't totally finished in eastern MA and SE NH. Like overnight Sunday night it could already start going mid-level magic out near Chris and then also filling in over W CT.

Prob overdone. Take 2/3rds usually on these thumps. Still a pretty nice hit though even when you do that. Like half an inch of liquid. Then we wait for round 2.

Now maybe the slightest tick colder again at 66h? Lol. Basically noise.

Looks a smidge warmer now at 60h.

GFS looks pretty close to 06z. Maybe just the slightest tick colder through 48h but it's nothing significant yet.

That's a pretty weenie-ish ML look on the NAM for Monday and Monday night. Most guidance has actually been showing that but the placement is differing slightly.