ORH_wxman

Looks like E MA gets another 2-3" after this point Tuesday morning on the meteocentre site. Reggie is also shoving the sfc front way too far inland...it has ORH raining for a time while CEF is snowing....that is pretty much guaranteed to never happen unless you bisect the mid-level warming between them which isn't the case here.

Yeah they are also trying to figure out if the CCB is going to be more coherent or not. There's been a general trend of more coherent in the past few runs but some of those 06z runs did show more holes again. My guess is you will see at least advisory snow (3-5) in round 2.

Yeah. If he can flip back to snow by mid/late Monday afternoon, there's potential for big positive bust there too. The problem is obviously flipping back to snow that soon. Gets fairly mild in low levels on the east side of that CF for a while...but theoretically that should have sunk south of him by Monday late afternoon. So we'll see. 850s are marginal there on some guidance too until Monday evening.

Prob 7-12ish right now. Again...big bust potential though. Esp over interior where Monday may snow a bit more than we think...even before the overnight Monday stuff.

They could technically get like 5" and then another 5" and since they fall more than 24 hours apart they wouldn't verify a warning....

Part 2 was a dud on the 06z run compared to 00z

Holliston/Ashland line. WSW of Natick out toward 495/pike intersection

Don't care. Haven't lived there for 3 years. Lol. But split the diff between BOS and ORH and that sounds about right.

Amazing we haven't figured out round 2 yet. Heck round 1 is hard enough to forecast right now. My gut says round 1 underperforms (relatively speaking) and round 2 overperforms. I think ORH is good for 8-14" but in the back of my mind I'm concerned they keep racking it up all day Monday on NE flow and they never ping or just briefly ping...BOS somewhere around 6-10". Jackpot zone is N ORH county over to Chris's 'hood and maybe monads and Mitch in S VT. And because Kevin will whine if I don't make a CT prediction. I'd go 6-10 there as well. Theres obviously some bigger than normal bust potential with this storm.

Going back years back to the WWBB, Jerry always said he was waiting for this. Well the time has come....Happy Birthday Old Man Winter! Very chilly night. 19F currently.

Ukie for round 2:

We can get the 850 maps at plymouth out to 36h pretty early...doesn't tell us everything, but we can decipher a bit. It looks optimistic to me for round 2 if 850 already looks like that at 36h....it's also pretty cold for the thump

Yeah the RGEM was the most extreme scenario but the other guidance is starting to show it...like GFS is 40 knots now out of the ENE. If that trend continues, then it's going to bust a lot of forecasts too low. There will be some monster totals on that setup.

I'm starting to see more of this in the midlevels since 18z runs today....this is the 00z RGEM at 48...so even before the best of round 2 comes in, and look at how ridiculous that is...like 60 knots of inflow with still excellent thermal packing out to the east and SE of BOS over the ocean....it is hard to imagine there not being a very well defined CCB in that

Lol

GFS starting to come around for round 2. Not as good as the RGEM or NAM or 18z Euro, but good step in that direction.

That's the 18z run. 00z still hasn't updated on that site.

'Oh ok...I was also wondering, lol....I knew the regular one just came out to 48....waiting for the 48-72 panels.

FWIW, the 3km NAM lost the HRRRx as a torch ally. HRRRx looks pretty similar to the RGEM...just maybe not quite as zonked on the QPF. But it has the sleet line in a similar spot at 03z tomorrow night...from about Kevin's fanny over to BDL and eastward to Fozz's new digs.

Still snowing in E MA up into ME at this point

CT peeps will be happy with round 2. Gets going there by Monday afternoon...48h panel looks like its getting primed to hit SNE a lot more too....prob good in the 54 and 60 frames...but we have to wait until meteocentre maps.

Here's the 00z regular NAM without sleet counted as 10 to 1:

Yeah some of ya'll gave up way too quick on the round 2....that thing is a powderkeg setup waiting to explode....just need to wait until ULL gets there in position.

Round 1 was still fine. Just a bit less. Not some huge massive cutback.

Best round 2 we've seen so far by euro. That's prettt big time stuff there with a real coherent CCB.