ORH_wxman

Around 3" now. Coming down really good in this final band.

Yeah I think 2-4/3-5 would have been a better forecast for a chunk of the region. Anyone in the steady stuff east of the river isn't getting just 1".

Wow. Rippage here right now. Prob 2" so far eyeballing?

RAP is going wild...00z looked good but now 01z run is even better. Could be widespread 3-6" for most of CT, RI and central/eastern MA on that run. Prob overdone but interesting to see it getting better. RPM finally stopped looking like Ka-ka too for CT/RI and at least southern MA

Both 3k and 12k NAM at 00z look pretty good from about Kevin over to RI and E MA. Still worried about the dry air but sometimes that NW push can create a nice enhanced band.

Did look like it backed off a little for E MA ...more like 2-3" instead of 4-5" but it was still hitting Ginxy to Fozz in N RI with 5" or so and back to like Kevin with 4".

This is kind of what happened in late Dec 2012. Got a nasty grinch Rainer but then a small event Xmas morning and then the bigger events on 12/26-27 (mostly interior) and 12/29 (the famous Scooter middle finger screwgie)...fairly marginal airmasses with kind of a ka-ka pacific but we had the high heights around Hudson Bay and over toward Davis strait.

We're down to patches and the typical piles/snow banks....woods are holing a little more than just patches....we had been holding onto majority cover still this morning (prob like 75% when I got up) but the rest of today wiped out that out. Really hard to handle 30+ hours of 45+ dewpoints....you need that CAD where you rot in the mid/upper 30s for an extra 6-12 hours.

Dry air advection?

I would expect it as soon as I got more than a 4" pack if I lived in that CAD zone.

Ashburnham is basically the SNE version of that zone....those protected elevated areas in N ORH county can retain pretty efficiently. I've seen us get wiped out on Winter Hill and then drive maybe 5 miles north to the north side of Holden and it can be 100% cover with 6"+ still. Even within the city of ORH, I've seen us hold onto good pack on the north side and the south side is almost totally bare. But generally as a rule, the further north and east you get into the hills, the better protected they become.

Euro looks a bit sharper with the trough and as a result, throws the moisture a little further west than the 06z run.

How is '07-'08 not on there? Pretty sure you got nuked on 12/3 and then it never melted until mid/late April.

Dendrite is definitely in the "weenie CAD zone"....basically from his 'hood up to near Tamarack....including lakes region and up towards IZG.

Ashburnham somehow kept their pack after that obscene 4 day January 2008 massacre.....though latitude helped a lot that winter. That '00-'01 winter was epic, but it took until later December to really get it started. The mid-Dec 2000 event got obliterated by that monster cutter on 12/17-18.

Yeah you need replenishers to sustain snowpack for most of us. Outside of the high mountain areas or extreme weenie CAD zones (like where Tamarack is), it is difficult to keep solid cover without adding to it from time to time. A year like 207-2018 is a good example...we had snow cover start in the Dec 9th storm and it was looking strong well past New Years after the 1/4 storm, but then it took an absolute beating in the mid-month 2 day cutter and anything that survived got finished off in the next cutter a week later. So even though that snowpack made it over a month from the start point, it got wiped out mid-winter because we couldn't keep adding to it after the 1/4 storm and couldn't avoid the epic cutter.

1995 and 2002 weren't on that list since they were during the ASOS disaster years....but yeah, it's rare as you saw from my post above.

It almost never happens outside of maybe the Berkshires at high elevation. The few years can think where pre-Dec 10th snowpack went all the way are maybe 2002, 1995, 1970, and 1960. Most of these were relegated to the interior too, as the CP got wiped out at some point those winters....exception might be 1970-1971. I think 1981-1982 also came close but didn't quite do it. 2013-2014 may have done it as well for N ORH county...they survived the Grinch storm and then also still had snowpack after the epic cutter in Jan 2014.

GGEM shifted east about 500 miles from 00z....it's gonna be all over the place. The guidance at least has a good arctic high to the north right now, so even on the westward solutions, there's a good chance of a front ender and CAD situation.

NAM has been one of the uglier models on this event for the past 3 or 4 runs, so it's useful that it trended better. I don't expect the RGEM or GGEM to verify though and give warning snows. SE MA and RI are def the best spots though for this one.

NAM def looked better than 06z....RPM still looks like ka-ka.

In the anafront events that end up panning out, we usually see a trend toward that low becoming more discrete in the final 48 hours. Hopefully this is one of those times. The ML flow starts backing more each run and QPF starts to juice up as a result.

What a weenie GEFS run.....hopefully the EPS start coming around.

We will rip and read the GGEM at this range....

A lot of those snow depths weren't the peak in E MA and RI either. They got like 6-10" two days later on 1/10. That little inverted trough that turned into a legit storm for eastern areas. I think like 2-4 was forecast.