ORH_wxman

Scooter calling for Tanuary, dryslot punting the rest of December in Lavarock fashion....Kevin punting all snow until 1/20...what a difference two days makes.

I'm selling the snow idea in SNE for now. You'd need to keep seeing the Scooter streak hold its ground or come even further south with no offset from the monster ULL in the plains. Definitely need to watch the ZR situation though.

I like those maps overall. They are usually pretty decent. But I've noticed in that high LE ice pack they will underestimate and then in arctic sand it can overestimate sometimes...not sure what in the algorithm causes it. Arctic sand I can understand since it's prob measuring decent LE but it's low ratio garbage...but not sure why it can't "see" the sleet pack well. They do sometimes get a little kooky late in the year too when you have the classic spring snow pack where woods and shaded areas might have 2 feet of snow with 5-6 inches of water in it but the typical bare patches in south facing torch slopes.

The shaded map is definitely more pessimistic than the obs. Lots of 1.0s (mostly sleet) that are ignored in Interior E MA.

The nohrsc maps seem to really struggle with the hard sleet pack. Calling it bare ground in too many spots.

Yeah. I'm not totally sold yet but it's a good trend. Need to see that shortwave up north trend even stronger imho. It's already done so two runs in a row so maybe it will again at 00z but if it goes back the other way a little bit then we're looking at a cold rain.

It's 120+ hours...I wasn't really looking closely at qpf. Maybe around an inch? It could be a decent system. But QPF is the last thing to be looking at right now. Need to make sure this isn't a true screamer/cutter first. Good trends last night and today though.

That shortwave appeared on last night's guidance and has trended hard south today. Maybe we get one more jump south. Even as is, that's def ice inland. Prob even further south than the verbatim 2m temps show...that's crazy advection from the northeast.

Yes. Still could end up as mostly rain though. But 00z euro was interesting and 12z Ukie looks cold too...GGEM trended colder. Still waiting on 12z euro. GFS still pretty torched but it did come south a lot.

Ice over interior next week? Thats quite the high trying to press down all of the sudden for 12/30-31

ORH MADIS has been really steady and I've checked myself every now and then to other mesos around 1000 feet and haven't seen anything weird.

I haven't seen that at all with similar elevation mesos.

Tuckermans prob averages over 400" per year while MWN is 260". All about the wind when you're talking near the summits.

I probably worded it badly...when I said "selling" I meant it's trying to sell it to us. I should've said buying. It has a pretty nice flip around New Years. But we'll see if it gets delayed. So far it hasn't pushed it back yet.

EPS still selling the PAC flip around New Years.

12/27 is looking pretty ugly right now though can't be ruled out yet. We'll see if we can pop something 12/31-1/1 which may have a more favorable ridge out west.

He used to be Aroostook Sailer back on Eastern too. He's going to be so pissed about not getting 48F and drizzle in June.

I thought he said Vim Toot moved to PA

Yeah last night's runs looked like ka-ka for snow chances but they have been wildly inconsistent which was expected in this pattern. I think the default position is expect nothing for now but don't completely punt the 12/26-12/31 period. The EPS look really good post-New Years though. I think we may have some good chances in early January if that comes to fruition. Let's get the Wilton Felder music cranked up.

I remember those events very well. The first one actually trended way north in the final 36h. It went from CT jackpot to MA jackpot to congrats dendrite in a span of like 3 runs. Every run went 50 miles north. We had like 4" in that one along with some IP/ZR. It was 12/30-31 and then New Years morning was the start of the 2nd one...that one was never progged to crush us down here but we did get heavy snow briefly as it wound up. We kind of got the ass-end of it. I was driving back from NYC early that morning hungover. Left around 7-8am and it was mild down there...like mid-upper 40s and bare ground. Quickly went to 30s north of Merritt and ran into snow on 91 north. Rain like was chasing me though...turned to rain in HFD and even when I got up into Tolland on 84 it was a R/S mix. Finally went to all snow at Union and the line never did advance much further. We stayed all snow in ORH but the precip shut off before we could get warning snows. I remember it really wound up in NH though. Aviation Dave was there that winter in Derry NH and I remember him posting huge totals in that event...like 10"....with maybe even more in Maine? I was a bit bummed we just missed the higher totals. Still a good period though. We had like 20" depth after that New Years event before it got annihilated by that epic Jan 8-12 torch.

Yeah there's some pretty good evidence it's a local max on the chain of mountains going down. The valley gets pretty wide to the west of them before the Catskills so there's some room to reinvigorate upslope streamers. I've also heard that people would drive into that area and see 4-5" of snow and literally 3-5 miles either direction there would be almost nothing. They'd get their own little private snow event. I wish I knew more about the spotters. I think the former guy's son took over but isn't as diligent in measuring every flake like the dad was. So those 1-3" fluffers turn into 0.5" or traces and the 5 inches turn into 2 inchers. There's also going to be some variance at play too...the former guy was measuring during some real weenie years for LES...esp during that 1955-1980 period or so.

The 1970-1971 New Years storm was kind of suppressed. About 4" here but there was more down in CT/RI. Was one of the few storms that hit NYC to D.C. that winter.

I definitely don't remember that. 1/2/87 had a big one but that was obviously a day after New Years.

No he said NYE. 12/31/08. Like 13" in the cranberry bogs...Rays favorite event.

No there hasn't. 12/31 is kind of a local nadir in daily snowfall records around here. Actually the whole several day period from 12/30-1/1 is weak. NYC/adjacent NJ had the 12/30/00 storm but it was nothing special around here (10" or so).