ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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Late '90s had some bad years in certain spots. '97-'98, '98-'99, and '99-'00 could've been very bad years consecutively in the right spots. I think all 3 were putrid in southern CT. Coastal MA and RI did ok in '98-'99 and interior elevated MA did ok in '97-'98.
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Scooter was born in like '79? I'm sure he remembers most of the 80s...esp the dreadful years which mostly started in 84-85. I was born in '81 and I remember most of the shit years in the late 1980s and the lean years actually went into the first 3 seasons of the '90s.
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Well what about the 00z run last night? That was still way south too. These current runs aren't even that north. They don't get much qpf up in NNE...actually anywhere. They are weak. The biggest difference is the obscene deep h5 that the euro had for 2-3 runs which produced a big CCB.
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April 2002 is the one you're thinking of with those multiple 90+ days. We actually ended up getting some wet snow about a week later. Didn't accumulate much though.
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It is still superior in skill to the 12z run given it is 6 hours closer.
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18z Euro is trying to come back a little bit.
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Kind of a weakening clipper/IVT deal.
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Most of the interior has probably already had their biggest snowstorm of the season. 15"+ (20+ in some cases) near and outside the 495 belt for pretty much all of MA and N CT on Dec 1-3. Coastline prob has their biggest still to come. As for this threat, I still say hope for 1-3" and considers that a win given that guidance had powderfreak pond skimming 48-60 hours ago.
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SE MA might get more snow than anyone this run.
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Note how all the non-Euro guidance does not have a close h5 low south of SNE. 06z Euro had it closed off multiple times. Thats why the other models suck for snow down here and have this stripe of advisory snow to maybe low end warning for CNE instead.
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I'm always leery of being on the ass-end of these redevelopers. I want to be northeast. I like where ray is over to the seacoast of NH. The rest of SNE might be great too but I'm hedging on the north bump.
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H5 is more impressive this run to our south. Several contours closed off.
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GFS trended south considerably at 06z...though your area has seen snow on the GFS for several runs in a row now. But people like dendrite and even down to ASH and adjacent NE MA saw plowable snowfall on the latest run.
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So far... NAM was very disjointed...not much CCB but had a swath of moderate snow for CNE and NNE. ICON looked like it trended weaker and south of 18z. Moderate snows for a chunk of SNE RGEM clown range jacked SNE with low end warning snows GFS trended south from 18z but not a lot. Good looking CCB though for NNE...esp Maine and NH. GGEM so far south it whiffs SNE except maybe a little bit in far southern areas.
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NAM looks like ka-ka. It's okay in a 20-30 mile wide stripe from like RUT to dendrite to IZG or so...but overall pretty disjointed...never gets a good CCB cranking.
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Agreed. Noose is starting to tighten for the NNE/CNE crew. You're posting this while dryslot and dendrite are pulling out the old "it's an offhour run so it's probably a blip" reasoning...pretty soon you'll be huddling around the GFS/SREF/RPM group. We know the drill.
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Euro is definitely a big solution for SNE. It is still dumping at 90h when the run ends.
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Incremental improvement on GFS as redevelopment is further southwest but it is still ka-ka for most of New England. Powderfreak to tamarack score a bit though.
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84h NAM does look interesting. But it's the 84h NAM.
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Wow I had thought the cras was dead for years...guess it's fitting that zombie finally got slayed on Halloween.
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That was the model everyone would look to if a storm was hitting Bermuda. The cras would have a KU over ACK with about 5 inches of qpf. Such a terrible model for synoptic winter storms. If my memory serves correctly, I believe it was meant for convection....it used a ton of satellite data input....far more than typical NWP guidance.
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It's been pretty good so far this season but it barfed all over itself on the 12/18 event inside of 72 hours. Plus, back in the day the GFS was so bad with coastals, you could almost ignore it (even nowadays on legit KU-Esque coastals it still has problems imho...though we haven't gotten to test the new core yet...we haven't had a true legit one since March 2018). But GFS was pretty good with SWFE so when you had Euro/GFS agreement at 84-96h I remember you could lock it in...ala 12/13/07 I recall.
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I remember those maps. I used to check that nogaps back in the day circa 2005-2010ish...it had a very consistent SE bias back then so it was worth checking to see if it was coming NW. It would sometimes be a harbinger of a NW trend if you got two runs in a row like that. But nowdays I feel like it's a dartboard...
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Yeah I do use TT. Admittedly though mostly for the HRRR and 3km NAM. Guess I just never noticed the navgem option since I don't usually scroll the global model tab. Check your PM
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Where the heck do you even find the nogaps (errr navgem) these days? I used to peak on the ewall site because it was there and one click away...but it stopped loading on that site sometime before winter started. I didn't bother actively seeking it out since then.
