ORH_wxman

Yeah and the EPS have recently had quite a shift in the Pacific...it's not nearly as negative with the PNA....it's opposing the GEFS suite, so the change may not show up on the ESRL teleconnector site yet (assuming the EPS has the right idea and the GEFS will trend toward it....hardly a lock). But if we get that combo of -EPO/+PNA (or at least neutral PNA), that would certainly be quite a flip in the CONUS pattern and likely sensible wx when it comes to storm system.

Yeah there's no HRRR posts or RAP posts yet because they all look like ka-ka. Same with RPM.

You must've done ok...I had like 4" here. BOS had like 3" maybe?

I remember we had that weenie band out ahead and NW of the man precip shield late that night....it went from you to me...we were the only ones snowing for several hours on the forum....this little narrow band. Everyone else was virga or nothing. I had about 2" of fluff from that band....I think the stuff early the next morning I got another couple to 3 inches. SE MA got like 8".

Interesting that it looks a hair worse at 24h for Maine...but it was def a little better further south down near S coast of CT and LI.

GFS looks very slightly more NW...we're talking very slim changes. But that's better than worse....keeps SE folks in the game.

EPS actually dumps the RNA signal around D11-12....we'll see. RNA with a -NAO would have been a sweet pattern for here, but the ATL has gone to utter trash now from the favorable December setup.

It really does...if all the other guidance looked like that, you'd prob have to forecast advisory snows for BOS back to like E half of CT. But it's a red flag to me that none of the weenie short term models that always show weenie solutions aren't biting. It's possible they are struggling with the complex interaction between the offshore redevelopment/convection and the main shortwave a bit west of that....but you'd think at least one of them would go wild if we were going to be getting advisory snows over a decent area.

Things are definitely looking more favorable after about 1/15...and especially the final 10 days of the month. But even as early as 1/14-15 or so, we get some intense press of cold into central canada and that could leak out way....so we can't rule out an overrunning event just after mid-month. Could obviously be a cutter too...that's how these things go....we start to actually build a western ridge a little bit after that though which will tend to reduce the cutter risk some. Cutters will always be on the table considering how awful the ATL is....the ATL was favorable in the first half of December which really helped us.

Dude that was like 1% of his outlook...the whole thing is about 900 pages.

It looks like there could be a little weenie band NW of the main CCB....say, like BOS to PVD if the main CCB is kissing the Cape....if it's a little SE, then it would be more like GHG-UUU...but this band could give a little mini-surprise to someone. IF this trends a little NW throughout the day today, then it could get into metrowest down to E CT.

A rapidly deepening storm near the benchmark and we're having trouble getting advisory snow to GHG-TAN.

Man, the short term guidance really gets that initial forcing really far west. Like E/C PA to BGM but then t just dries up and the newer forcing takes over south of the islands and LI. Nice gap in the middle where most of us are screwed. Theres gonna be a ton of radar hallucinations today as it will look like a big hit for all of SNE for a time before that initial forcing gets handed off to the offshore stuff. Hopefully with each passing run we see a delay in the offshore stuff becoming dominant.

Yeah I'm bracing for the messenger shuffle today unless we see a quick change in that short term guidance. They are prob telling us something.

Really? I thought 6z euro def looked better. Doesn't help most of us but that was probably pretty decent for S RI and SE MA

Not a big fan of seeing short term guidance like hrrr and rap so paltry. Usually one of those would be going to town if we're gonna see a NW surprise. Throw the rpm in there too.

Yes it does. Can't afford any ticks back SE though....except maybe the NAM. You could still get advisory snows on the NAM of it slightly ticked SE considering it almost brought warning snows to you. Hopefully everything ticks NW again but I'm bracing for the messenger shuffle today.

If the 06z NAM verified then this would be a pretty potent event down in SE MA/RI. But it's kind of on its own right now. Ryan called it on the rpm....went from NW outlier to a total whiff in like 2 runs, LOL. 06z Euro was actually pretty good like scooter said. That would prob be advisory snows for SE MA and RI and maybe back to like ginxy and SE CT.

Ended up with a very marginal improvement in the end....pretty sick CCB just offshore. That needs like 30-40 miles to get the SE peeps.

Trying to make a comeback at 24...made up some ground....streak is moving out a little quicker now.

Shitstreak looks worse on the GFS through 12....don't think this run is gonna help.

A couple hours would probably make a pretty big difference...so it's why we sit and torture ourselves watching this.

Reggie didn't help us at 00z...it looked a bit better early on but then just got kicked east as it approached our latitude and ended up about the same as 18z.

It could definitely keep coming NW bit by bit...but we're running out of time for a large change. We've seen it before, but it's rare. That shitstreak is the reason we're not seeing this be a quick hitting 0.75-1" of qpf over most of SNE. It's possible we end up with something like the RPM where it's 2-4" over a good area with a little zone of higher and maybe far SE MA gets into the real CCB. But it's not like that streak is just going to exert no influence by the time we get to go time. Guidance could be overplaying it by a little bit though which is why we could still see 2-4" as far west as W CT and C/W MA if things go right.

The midlevel goodies are starting to scrape the south coast of RI/MA and the Cape this run though....so again, another tick and it gets pretty good there.