ORH_wxman

Pretty good band down in PYM county to southern Bristol county

Yeah if we're getting hooked dendrite aggregates at 25F, we can go 1 inch per hour with 1+ mile vis easily....meanwhile, I've had arctic sand with half mile vis that is struggling to do better than a half inch per hour.

Good luck to those in SE MA and RI....doesn't look terrible on radar....still hard to believe though that this storm is tracking near or even just inside the BM while intensifying rapidly and this is all we're getting on the radar.

Always good to know your distance to landmarks in the neighborhood. I have a ridge line I can see from my back pretty clearly in winter that is 0.75 miles away as measured on google maps in a straight line. I have a bank of trees looking a different direction that are 0.18 miles away...so I know I'm heavy snow if they are obscured or nearly obscured. I don't have a good landmark that is close to a half mile, but I can usually estimate pretty good based on if the ridge line is gone and the bank of trees is starting to get pretty cloudy looking...then I know I'm prob under a half mile. But I'd def recommend other posters here measure their landmarks so they have an objective/empirical source of visibility. Of course, if you live really close to an ASOS station, you probably don't need to do this. But most of us don't. This is a good site to use: https://www.mapdevelopers.com/distance_finder.php Just convert the map to satellite mode if you want to see different houses/landmarks while zoomed in on your street and then click from your house to whatever landmark you are measuring and it gives straight line distances.

Yeah I think they maybe overplayed the dry air....this isn't a classic dry air scenario either....not like we have ripping N or NW winds in the midlevels. And the sfc def ins't a dry north drain....winds are off the water, albeit light. Soundings do show some midlevel dry air, but it doesn't appear that it is that hard to overcome with this precip shield. Just about every model had zero measurable on LI until after 00z...GFS had a couple hundreths. We'll see how heavy that stuff actually is. Aren't a lot of stations out there.

RAP starting to tickle NW the last couple runs....22z now gets Jimmy with the edge of that CCB band.

21z RAP is excruciating too....has 2" per hour stuff clipping MVY around 05z-06z...doesn't have to be a big error there for it to get onshore. Maybe our south coast posters can get a surprise.

Pressure falls aren't going to be that useful here....the low tracks over the benchmark basically....usually that isa great track for us but we're barely getting the precip past PYM on this one. I'd just look at the radar ad water vapor probably over the next 3-5 hours.

Holy jeez...the GFS has an epic CCB just offshore on the 18z run. Actually gets ACK/MVY and maybe even CHH. Man, if that was literally like 20 miles NW, that would destroy the south coast. That could be a painful radar for those peeps....maybe see lightning flashes on the southern horizon?

I'm not sure if anyone has it past D10 for free....not that I think it's a huge loss though because even the EPS isn't hugel skilled in the 11-15. But it's usually more right than the GEFS. FWIW, the GGEM ensembles agree with the EPS. GEFS has been showing much less ridging out west than the EPS. Here's a few plots from D12-15

We'll see what that developing band does....none of the models had it there at 21z...you only see it closer to 00z. Doesn't necessarily mean it's a meaningful forecast bust in progress, but if we see that thing continue to lift north without weakening and threaten the south coast near 00z, then it's probably meaningful.

South coast def needs to watch these bands as they start to come north

I disregard that talk mostly....since many of them are HDD weenies or they focus on the east as a whole and kind of ignore New England or erroneously lump us in with the Mid-atlantic where the snow climo becomes like Miami after 2/20.

Yeah we have two marginal shots next week....keep expectations low for now but one of them could work out....pattern does get a lot friendlier by 1/17 or so.

Yeah still possible there...though I'd probably lean C-1" right now....but 2" wouldn't be a total shock if a little band on the NW side set up. Just flurries also wouldn't be a total shock either.

We've missed the jump from the top rope on a few of these threats.

It was definitely worth watching down there...it wouldn't have shocked me if you had gotten like 3-4".....right now, I think the hope is now for like an inch or two there.

We used to have a poster "ack waves" from Nantucket, but I haven't seen him post in a long while.

EPS is all about the PNA ridging now....flipped a couple runs ago and has only gotten stronger on the idea.

He did one of the biggest 180s I've seen....he was absolutely trashing this threat at 96 hours when we can see 100-200 mile moves pretty easily....and once we got inside 48 hours, he was all about the model movements.

On the plus side, EPS continues to look excellent in the 11-15...and it's moving forward too. Not getting stuck at like 312-336 hours.

Let's be honest...you're getting wedged....your area does at the least excuse imaginable. The meat of this is still 108-120 hours out. The trend today has been a bit more amped, but we've seen so many of these go flatter from D4-5 inward. Plenty of time to turn this into an ice storm there....or at the very least, a 35F rain.

Stowe this weekend?

We knew today would be a really good system for hallucinations...I mean, can you think this would miss if you had no model information?

Monday night/Tuesday morning.....but yeah, snuck up and really clocked SE MA/RI when all the guidance earlier that day was showing dogshit.