ORH_wxman

Yes....excellent run again. Hard to hate much about the pattern....and as ginxy said, the EPS do like the 1/18 threat. It's still in the early part of the pattern change, so there's more risk for westward solutions on that one than future threats beyond that IMHO.....but we have a good antecedent airmass for that one and the western ridge isjust in the process of building, so there's some good things going on. I'd just be cautious getting too invested in 1/18 just yet though.

The 1/15-16 event still mostly looks like dung on pretty much all guidance....a cutter really. Kind of hard to avoid that actually in this pattern....it could end up flatter as we were musing earlier but it's an uphill battle with the troughing out west and still pretty high heights out east. But the cold front behind that system sets the table for 1/18...that's really been the one to watch I think.

Yeah the valley there is shockingly bad considering the latitude and the average annual snowfall....it is still going to be a lot better than where he is now, but I am always surprised at how little there is when I drive up there. I often drove from ORH up through N ORH county and SW NH on rt 12 to get to 91 and then 89....I'd leave with full snow cover and not see any low snow cover/bare ground until I reached the Champlain valley west of Richmond or so. Still...good spot for frequent refreshers and good cold during arctic shots. Reminds me a bit snowier/colder Ithaca, NY climate....lots of smaller snowfalls and great arctic cold shots, but awful snowfall retention given the other two factors. So easily torched on southerly and southwest winds. BTV prob gets more bigger storms than Ithaca too....Ithaca drove me insane after a while....getting a double digit snow event was like pulling teeth. At first, I loved the frequent 1-3" snowfalls but then started loathing them as it kept reminding me of the penny and nickle climate I was in....I couldn't even call it nickle and dime.

65 knots at 850mb and about 50 knots at 925mb....so yeah, def some big gusts up there tomorrow.

Absolutely....and you can see it on the hemispheric loop where that initial dump of cold next week is due to the initial EPO ridge punching through AK while we still have a bit of west coast troughing folding underneath it. So I definitel think there could be still a few mild days mixed in next week until we get to next weekend or so when the ridging starts moving more over the WC, I'm sure we'll get plenty of posts calling bust-o-rama too during that timeframe.

Actually...I think you were talking about next Thursday Tip...and not next weekend. Yeah the EPS is still cutting next Thursday....but we'll see if that trends flatter like most of these have.

The EPS was definitely more the redeveloper route....of course either scenario could happen at this time range

Yeah they had already started trending yesterday, but they were still notably west of the EPS with the mean ridge....last night, they sort of made the full leap and they are pretty close now. I'd expect that to show up later today when the ESRL site updates for Jan 10 00z.

Last year had big GOA ridging into the EPO region and then it folded wya back west into the west coast for a deeply -PNA....it's why most of the country was pretty cold though....the staunchly negative EPO....we got a little unlucky in SNE missing really close on several SWFEs, but overall it wasn't a bad pattern. But yeah, this modeled pattern has the ridging significantly east of last year which should push the heart of the cold east and help us out in the snow department.

Yeah northern stream dominant pattern for sure....it's really meridional though, so there could def be a storm that forms further south.

It's fine....there are always going to be whiners until they have winter storm warnings and a deformation band over their backyard....but for the rest of the crowd who is interested in some scientific discussion, that's what we see right now. It is a very good look should it come to fruition, and the GEFS now caving to the EPS makes that more likely.

GEFS is caving to the EPS which is good to see....if you recall from some of the posts yesterday, the GEFS were further west with the mean ridge out in the PAC domain. The GEFS had previosuly been really hitting the GOA ridging harder almost out toward the Aleutians....now they are more in line with the EPS:

I was going to check MWN's records but strangely I cannot get anything prior to 2005 now. Really weird. Maybe someone here has a link for monthly data going back to the beginning. I was going to compare ablation season temps to find the most likely years after 1960 they may have been able to support a glacier surviving.

Yes. It could verify a little west if there's a compromise. The western ridge is what locks the trough in place...the PNA/EPO sort of link up and you can have a prolonged pattern where you keep getting reloads. There's a cutter danger if the trough axis is more over, say, Michigan versus the northeast....though you'd still have a lot of winter events even in that scenario (see January/February 2014).

MWN did have a few rogue winters where tuckermans had a glacier survive the entire ablation season. I have posted a paper on this in the past and it happened several times in the late 1800s when records began....the final time being 1926. But the paper was published in 1960 so I'm not sure if they had a glacier survive the ablation season in the 1960s/1970s which had some exceptionally cold years that would have rivaled those previous ablation seasons.

I dunno...maybe it doesn't verify because it's 11-15 days? I think that's pretty baked into these posts unless one is a total newbie here. I already mentioned it may verify a bit further west if there's a compromise between it and the GEFS.

Well if you want to get technical, probably down past our latitude considering eliminating summer would be subtracting like 4C from our temperatures....which would in turn cause a re-advance of the Laurentide ice sheet from the north (the remnants only now exist on Baffin island and a few nearby higher elevation glaciers) which would in turn probably cause global temps to fall even further with feedbacks, yadda, yadda, yadda........but yeah, I get what you're saying. We'd still probably only have glaciers on the peaks because even MWN doesn't support glaciers and their current average annual temp is 27F or so. You'd probably need it a few degrees below MWN's current temps (which would happen in your scenario at least on the peaks of NNE)

12/29/84 is the warmest December day on record for many sites (in terms of anomalies).

It's definitely anomalous for January but it happens every few years I'd say where we get a huge SE ridge bulging up and sending huge height anomalies into our region along with temps over 60F.

It's not an exact match but the western ridge axis and theme of +AO/+NAO with the low heights just extending straight down into New England are the same. Obviously we can't expect the historic snowfall to repeat but it should be a favorable pattern for some larger snow threats for our region. GEFS and GGEM ensembles are a bit west of the EPS with the ridge axis...esp GEFS (though they have been trending toward EPS) so we may see a bit of a compromise as we get closer but even that would still be a very good pattern.

EPS continues to be out of control weenie-ish in the long range. It looks a lot like 2015

The AAO (Antarctic Oscillation) is southern hemisphere....that's their version of the AO. Did you mean AO?

The 1/17-18 setup looks semi-favorable because we get some transient ATL ridging into Greenland and transient 50/50 low which helps out a bit...it could still obviously fail. The PAC is still reshuffling at that time but the WPO/EPO block is folding over which eventually realigns into a more of a PNA/EPO ridge combo.

Yeah there's a couple chances for more snow...admittedly, the closer we get to 1/20, the better...no doubt about later January looking better...but 1/17-18 is looking like a favorable period for something.