ORH_wxman

Model consensus is prettt much 2-6" outside of 128/NW of 95 including CT as well. We'll see if we can start trending the redevelopment a little bit and that could enhance the amounts.

North of pike maybe squeezes out an inch or two in SNE.

Thump looked a little better on euro tonight for weekend system. GGEM also finally became the first model to start showing the sfc redevelopment again south of us. We'll have to see if that's a trend other guidance picks up on.

18z GFS was a little better for the weekend. Def a tick colder. Prob first run in about 6 cycles that was better than the previous one. Hopefully we can start slowly but surely trending the triple point redevelopment.

Yeah...well if this keeps trending, not sure we'll have much to build off of....lol. Thump is trending weaker. Hopefully we see some trending back in the good direction. Still plenty of time as it's 108 hours out.

Yeah OP had like 4" for you...EPS prob similar. It would warm up though above freezing for a time. It wouldn't be enough to melt it off though.

About the same as the OP.

Seems hard to find...but I found this paper https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/WAF903.1 go down to "page 100" and they talk about it. Looks like they reference some other literature too.

Last night's 00z run was colder than the 12z run yesterday too....so I agree its a bit cherry-picked. But that is also an HDD weenie...they really care more about extreme cold than they do about storms and snow.

I actually really like that relaxed gradient (Canada a bit blocky) type flow around D9-11....that's how we get some of our good miller Bs like 1/12/11 and Xmas 2002...it's kind of a split flow look. Then the PNA/EPO take it up another level after that like you hinted at.

Yeah them and I think Philly is even worse....my guess is theyll score in the upcoming pattern sometime between Jan 22-Feb 5 or so.

Maybe we can get Wilmington NC ahead of NYC for seasonal snowfall on the Euro at day 8?

Euro is even a bit stronger with primary this run....not that impressed with the thump. A few good hours of snow, but prob like 2-5" for most of SNE. Maybe spot 6" northern interior. The dynamics are compromised a bit with that ridiculous primary. We want a hint of redevelopment (triple point) because that is how you get those bent back ML fronts....we don't really have that on this look. It's even a fairly tepid event for NNE because of this...maybe 5-7 deal there until you get into N ME.

Euro is pretty cold...northern SNE folks could get grab an inch or so out ofthis if that verified. Like Ray's hood to pickles to Hunchie/Chris. Maybe even down to the pike....I'm skeptical, but who knows.

Guidance isn't really showing a very good/defined triple point at the sfc....I suspect that will happen as we get closer...or this will just trend more to a full blown cutter with some front end snow. My guess is the former will happen given the analogs on this type of setup....12/3/07, 1/30/87, etc.

Models aren't doing a good job of showing it right now...because they never do at this stage....but there could be a pretty nasty CF on this for a time. Like 20F on one side and 34F on the other type stuff during the first 6 hours of the event. It's a pretty classic look actually given that the high is not in an ideal spot for the coast...so there's going to be a front inland somewhere.

Well it was always a possibility....but i agree it was probably not the most likely outcome. GFS almost looks a bit more sheared and compressed....I'm thinking that type of look is going to be like 3-6" across interior SNE (lowest amounts south, highest amounts north)....not much more than that.

I was actually going to post this yesterday (but then got distracted) in response to one of your posts because you mention it a lot...and did so again here....but yeah, check out the loss of heights down in the subtropical region in the gulf of Mexico, Florida, etc....that 570/576dm height lines have basically replaced the 582s and 588s that have dominated so far.

Jan 1913 and 1932 were basically an entire month of what the first 13 days of January 2020 have been....like a +10 to +11 for entire month....we won't repeat though...decent chance we trim the departures down to like +2 to +4 or so by end of month...except BOS you can just add 2 degrees of departure to what places like ORH/PVD put up.

Might be some liquid even in the interior but prob not a lot. Well see on the triple point development though. Guidance typically underdoes that until we get closer. I'm still leery of a stronger primary though as the pattern is not ideal. The antecedent airmass is really what is giving us a chance.

Trend this into a 6-10" event for ray to ORH and 495 belt while coast gets 2" and then rain...then I think we'll be there.

I moved the whining posts to the panic room. I was pretty liberal in leaving the ones that at least mentioned the storm.

Basically no significant changes on the 00z runs. Interior SNE still looks good for a thump. Coast prob flips pretty quick with onshore flow. Pattern still looks very good beyond the weekend threat as well. This weekend could still trend either way. There's a good high out ahead of it so if the shortwave trends to digging for oil southeast better then I think we'd turn this into a warming event as it would spawn redevelopment sooner. If the shortwave trends to shearing negative off to our northwest more, then we just keep that primary dominant and the event is far less interesting in terms of winter wx.

It's 5 days out. I'm guessing there's going to be some movement between now and verification.

Yeah probably. I remember the immediate coast getting hardly anything. You'd prob get a few inches this time. But this could obviously change a lot still. It's 5 days out. Kind of hard to believe since it's been on the models for 3-4 days already.