ORH_wxman

You can't be 100% sure of course....but we have history to guide us. Past stretches of prolific snows that lasted a couple decades were compensated for at some point....likewise, our worst putrid stretches eventually regressed back to our long term climo. It's like flipping a coin....if you flip 10 heads in a row, you still have a 50% chance on the next flip....but you can be pretty reasonable and say "we're probably going to not keeping flipping heads every time and get plenty of tails on our next 10 flips....we'll probably also get a streak of a bunch of tails too at some point".....we just don't know exactly when. The only complication is that unlike a coin, the climate does change...both anthropogenic and natural...though if you try and take into account for that, you could argue for an even steeper regression. Though on the scale of decades, we've tended to regeress toward the long term mean even during periods of fast climate change.

The NAM will probably have a run or two inside of 36 hours that dupes everyone into thinking we'll get 6-8" on a big WCB thump, and then it will go back to a more sheared mess that actually makes sense given the upper air look.

Not in any one given trial....but over the longer run things will regress to the long term averages. There's no way we're going to keep averaging like 75-80" of snow like since the early 1990s.

SE MA is due for a few seasons where they get like 25-30" and Ray to ORH is in the 80"+ range. Then again, we're all due for a ratters in a row too....interior included.

I think the lack of posts on this storm is just that it's fairly uninteresting and hasn't changed a lot. It's been like a 2-5" for literally days for most of the forum....a run here or there strays maybe an inch or two from that range, but that's it. We haven't seen solutions that give 10-12" that sometimes come with SWFEs. The lack of a really solid vort and DPVA leaves me thinking that there's no real reason to expect a big positive bust either. I'd prob go 2-4/3-5 and call it a day. An outside chance at a 6 spot for a few if that crosshair sig verifies and there's a good band for a couple hours that drops a quick 3-4".

Both the NAM and GFS have a good crosshair signature across SNE. We'll see what they show tomorrow....if it stays, then yeah...someone could get a quick 3-4" in the first 3 hours.

It looks pretty mundane in NNE too....it's almost totally uniform across the entire forum until you get to maybe central Maine where some redevelopment enhances things a bit....not counting the moose fart upslope stuff behind it of course. We know that will be there in this system. There might be one semi-enhanced band from like Mitch over to S NH/S ME. But that could be 25-30 miles either direction...who knows.

I just don't think much has changed in the past 48 hours....it's really just an advisory event and hasn't shifted in any one direction.

I'd definitely keep the range under warning criteria. Maybe go as high as 6 elevated deep interior...like 3-6 there and 2-5 everywhere else except the beaches which maybe I go 1-2....if we can maintain that vortmax a little better before it gets shredded then I could see some 5-7 type totals but right now lost guidance is not buying that idea.

I don't expect much to change on this. The shortwave gets rounded out as it passes our longtitude...so it's getting ground up. That will limit the intensity of the thump. I think if most keep expectations of around 2-5" (maybe 3-6/4-7 for NW CT/Berkshires to elevated interior N MA) then it will be a pretty reasonable event. At least most of the meaningful precip is snow on these runs off the water.

Light snow falling but not accumulating much yet. Don't expect much as radar is pretty patchy off to the west for those south of the MA/NH border and esp rt 2.

There's actually a pretty good crosshair sig on the GFS but it's still 72-84 hours out. Can't see euro omega but the temps in the 600mb range are pretty nice which is often where that initial burst of lift is. So it's possible we get some nice ratios but I'd be careful about counting on ratios this far out. I typically never forecast high ratios unless it's slam dunk and inside 36 hours or so.

James gone wild

I posted upthread that I liked that look post d6.

I agree it looks a bit pessimistic. Though I can see them staying conservative given its 84 hours out and then they can always start ramping it up tomorrow and Friday if that colder thump is looking likely. I know from my experience forecasting to clients that backpeddling is a little harder than ramping up.

Yeah fast flow through the meat grinder is likely the culprit.

That's not a bad look. It even produces a snowstorm at the end. Yeah it's above average but very blocky in Canada. Very Niño-esque.

Yeah pretty decent. Keep in mind we have to shave a couple inches off over the interior there because that snow map is including tonight/tomorrow morning. I'd like to see a little bit better DPVA slamming us from the southwest to go more than 3-5" but beggars can't be choosers...there's still time.

Euro tickling colder. That's not a terrible look. Nothing amazing but probably 3-6 for everyone off the water in SNE.

Euro is doing it too at 12z. In fact it's getting 1-2" all the way down to N CT. I'll admit I didn't think this would trend that hard south inside 36 hours. We'll see if it's enough to cause a little AM commute surprise for the pike/Rt 2 region early tomorrow...or if it's just a coating to an inch car topper.

I don't really see the MJO getting into phase 8 on current guidance. Seems to go back into the COD after phase 7. That might change of course. But I'm not surprised we don't see an MJO phase 8 look right now on guidance because it's not getting there.

Yeah I don't hate that D8-11 look at all. I like the reduced gradient with potential for storms. I think the PAC becomes more amplified again after that too. A lot of good ninos had a look somewhat similar to that for long stretches. 1958 and 1978 come to mind.

NAM trying to go low end advisory snows for maybe ORH up to hubbdave and out to Chris in greenfield.

It doesn't just prolong the cold a little bit...I'd think the more important aspect is that it will enhance the thump. You'll start getting a more defined warm front building from the sfc upward. Usually just north of it you can get some pretty intense rates for a time.

00z GGEM definitely started showing redevelopment to our south. First model that has showed this in days. My gut says we'll see more hints of this as we get closer just because of the natural baroclinic zone down there. It's gonna be very cold initially so there's going to want to be a sfc reflection to the southeast.