ORH_wxman

Ripe for a scooter melt when you're choking out 2 mile vis needles and ORH-495 belt up to Ra is ripping 1/4 mile dendrites

4 is totally reasonable...8 is gonna require some ratios or a juicier trend...which could happen BTW. I'm probably nitpicking anyway. For all we know, this will ramp up the next two cycles and then this will all be moot. But the fast moving nature of this and lack of good strong DPVA is still bothering me a little for widespread warning criteria....though the latter has subtly trended better today.

I feel like the NWS offices have gone a bit wild on this one....but maybe it works out. Ratios could make it possible...if we're like closer to 15 to 1, but I am always hesitant to count on that. Def some guidance showing the crosshair sig. We could also still subtly trend that shortwave sharper instead of getting ground up...that would juice it up a little more too.

Yeah still torching inside 128. I'm selling that. Prob more confined to immediate shore.

There's some EPS support for GGEM type solution. It's not out of the question. Keep an open mind on that d6-10 pattern though. Quite uncertain.

You might stay below freezing the whole time of these trends hold. We'll see if the euro wants to hold that CF closer to the coast now like some of these other 12z runs.

RGEM tickled slightly colder for the southern peeps dealing with some changeover issues. Secondary is a little SE and more defined.

Yeah sure...if it develops a bit faster, then we'll see a more enhanced CF form and that will focus some lower lift just on the north/northwest side of it which could give some enhanced totals by an inch or two. Scott mentioned it earlier this morning I think...but somewhere from NE MA down 128/I-95 and then back WSW near the CT shoreline could see a little enhancement if that happens.

Lets get that secondary reflection going even a little faster...that could provide a little enhanced lower level lift.

I wouldn't get caught up in like one tenth changes to the qpf either. They could be meaningless. Look at h5 and midlevels instead to see if there's any support. Like I think the bump on the rgem is a little spurious. We're seeing a slightly better h5 shortwave not getting ground up quite as quickly, but I'm not sure I'd buy like a 2 tenth increase in qpf in spots. Some of it is the models trying to align a good leading fronto band too...and that could end up 30 miles either direction. Guidance typically isn't accurate enough to nail that with any consistency.

There's a way it could work...EPS shows how. Decent high to the north which would probably be enough with that approaching system from the south. I wouldn't get excited about this look, but it's not 2011-2012 either...though it could always still trend that way...

I'm pretty skeptical of warning snows anywhere that is widespread enough for WSW but who knows. I suppose 6" might be common enough if this thump ticks up a little bit.

Nah. It's ok but the really exciting look is gone. It may come back if weeklies are right in early February. The D 6-10 range is even more precarious. It could end up with a good storm but mild and cutter or no storm wouldn't be shocking. Ensembles do look better as we go out to 11-15 but usual caveats apply.

NAM held the shortwave together a bit longer. So it's trying to give us a little bit more enhanced thump.

This is what years of blockbusters do. High expectations and lots of hyping. We will all learn to appreciate the 3-6 inchers in time again just like the late 80s and early 90s.

Lol, this is totally not true...we saw most great patterns out in advance....2013, 2015, Mar 2018, etc....they do sometimes get pushed back, and sometimes they fail to materialize altogether, but it's definitely not true that we didn't see those types of patterns until inside 7 days.

Very well could be....I actually didn't even really hate the D8-11 look....the OP was ugly, but if we are keeping a light gradient with a blocky looking Canada, then we cna score some storms in that look. The OP Euro was trying to put a gradient in Canada which would trend us more toward a true torch vs just merely above normal but still cold enough for storm chances. And yeah, the GEPS/GEFS did look a lot better. So we'll see.

I think those only go out to 240 hours. At any rate, there is all of the sudden a lot of volatility and my guess is the tropical PAC is giving guidance fits.

I actually thought the end of today's EPS was an improvement on the 00z run.

Yes....trended into more of just a decent western ridge pattern with this relaxation that comes first in the D7-10 range....though we still may score a storm threat in there....remains to be seen. This is if we go on the EPS. GEFS are still showing a really good pattern but the EPS has trended pretty hard the past two runs away from the EPO/PNA combo. There's probably a lot of struggle with the strong wave in the tropic that is causing these swings.

ORH was comfortably below average in snowfall in '15-'16 and last year. SE MA was not...either avg or a bit above. ORH did anomalously well relative to the region as a whole in 2012-2013 though.

Yeah...it's been impressive that we have maintained good snowfall totals since our last true -NAO winter in 2012-2013....though we got blasted in March 2018 with a huge NAO block too. If we start getting some -NAO La Ninas again like we had a lot of in the 1960s, 1995-1996, 2000-2001, and 2010-2011....then look out.

I liked the look previous runs, but this run is ugly...bringing much lower heights into AK. Hopefully that is just the OP being clownish beyond D6, but that would be pretty ugly.

lol

8 might be optimistic there. I think the forecast is about the same for SNE and NNE...aside from SNE coastline which would get less. Maybe enhance NNE by an inch? Two? There's nothing overly impressive in this one.