ORH_wxman

Yep. I’m not even really paying that close attention to it at day 8. I might start looking more at day 6 but even that is not very accurate. Even though forecasts have improved in the past 10 years, we’re not at the point where day 6 is all of the sudden what day 3-4 were in 2009 or 2010. Clown maps and easily accessible model runs 4 times per day has warped the weenie mind....they’ve confused quantity of information with accuracy.

The EPS have significantly improved overnight IMHO in the 11-15. They have been showing some signs but last night’s run took it up a notch with the ridging out in the PAC domain. Lets see if we can build on this and track it closer unlike the last one which vaporized about 9 days out.

I’m on that bandwagon right now. Getting better but still plenty of problems for sustained deep winter through D10-12...then maybe 2nd week of February is when we see it become a little more entrenched....but we’ve been faked out before already this year so we’ll see how this one does. Btw, this says nothing of the storm next week...that’s all about timing with 3 different shortwaves. It could end up anywhere. Hopefully we catch a break and it’s a snowier solution. At least we’ll have something closer to a seasonable airmass ahead of it....as it looks right now.

We don't need a Kocin cookbook pattern for a good storm in New England....it makes it more likely for a big one, but we get the majority of our warning criteria events as something well-timed in a flawed pattern.

It is better. I didn’t say it was great though. Lol. We have a better antecedent airmass...not a high bar to clear compared to tomorrow. There’s some western ridging. Maybe some Hudson Bay ridging too. But the airmass isn’t exceptional and the isn’t a great 50/50 type low so this would favor the interior all else equal.

Yeah you are burnt toast on an EPS mean type track....New England would prob do ok...esp interior. But it's mostly meaningless right now. The pattern isn't very good for the coast though...esp further south. Need something to change either out west or in the NAO....or just get really lucky with a needle-threader.

Pretty huggy solution if you ask me....but it's 200 hour out, so I'm not really parsing this that closely right now

I'm not sure I ever got excited for a 204 hour prog....we used to not even really look past D6-7....though maybe we'd peak just for fun at the clown range.

Ha....I was a bit skeptical it would actually track that far north....but I didn't think there was anything stopping the north trend.It was almost solely based on the confluence to the north. Here's a comparison.....check out the heights north of Maine on the Euro 4 days compared to now.....:

Yeah both of those were the "winners"....though even their ULL tracks were too far south at that time...something like over SNE and into Maine via WV and PA....this thing is actually tracking over Detroit and Toronto.

By the time the NAM could see it, the other globals had already trended pretty far north....so I don't think the NAM was exceptional at this timeframe compared to the others.

All guidance was absolutely awful....but yeah, the Euro was probably the worst since it was the furthest south.

Both sides are crappy for the foreseeable futures, though the PAC is a little less crappy in the medium range....we get a PNA ridge while the EPO stays kind of meh but better than it has been. Here's what it looks like in that D11-12 time range

We were only half-joking about the ULL going through Ottawa?

Yeah you have to be very careful about where on the ice you are. There was a pretty large pond/lake near me growing up that always had a bit of a cove section that would be iced over really early and had no running water near it....that part would be safe for skating even in the garbage winters....other parts of the lake you definitely could not be on unless it had been frigid for at least a week to 10 days....so in those bad winters, you may never be safe out there. There was also some areas that had little streams and such flowing into them and those parts were also less safe. Local knowledge makes a difference for sure.

Yeah....the things you want to look for are evidence on guidance that the PV is actually taking hits. Scott posted some good 50mb Euro maps (which unfortunately aren't widely available) that showed the PV getting very elongated and stretched out....that is a bullish signal that it's taking big hits and could split....or displace. Either one is bullish for blocking. We don't really see it though until later in the ensemble run though....like after D11-12. But if it's actually true, then we'd expect to see the arctic pattern become a lot more favorable by the 2nd week of February or so. This site has 12z Euro OP runs out to D10....not overly useful for stuff beyond 7-8 days, but if it looks like the event is getting closer, then these will become useful: https://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/winterdiagnostics/index.html You can check out some of the GFS/GEFS products here....but they aren't great IMHO https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/SSW/

Wolves do love red meat though....so hard to blame him.

Out in the longer range, the death vortex up north is taking a beating at least. Hopefully that gives more credibility to change in February.

There's like 3 shortwaves in the flow and a transient ridge out in the mountain west....this has a long ways to go before t becomes interesting. Airmass is better than this weekend but still not very deep cold so there wouldn't be a lot of wiggle room. We'll see if it's still a threat in 4 days.

Just need scooter to have a full tilt melt. Hes come close a few times. Teetering like the guy at the bar leaning against the post....but he somehow staggers to the bar for a few steps without falling down before regaining his composure and ordering another drink.

It's not a whopper or extreme pattern being advertised, so I don't see a reason to doubt it right now. Could the EPO dislodging be rushed? Yeah it might be....though our first storm threat occurs before that happens. We're going more of a PNA-driven threat with a serviceable airmass near peak cold climo. The EPO starts relaxing more after that D8-10 period....and maybe the NAO starts becoming less hostile, though I'm always more skeptical of that until it's much closer....but even a neutral NAO look would be better than the absolute dung we've had the past several weeks. This is the first 3 weeks of this month for H5 anomalies....

The euro ensembles definitely still look a lot better going into early February. No negative changes today. In fact, there's early signs of a -NAO in the 11-15...first time we've seen that in a while. But the ball really gets rolling first with the PNA ridging out west around d7-8. EPO isn't overly robust but it's no longer overly hostile by D10-11.

EPS has a signal for something that could either be 1/31 or 2/1....or even 2/2 as a second system.....multiple shortwaves in the flow. You could even see it on the OP when it tried to give us something 1/31 before that redeveloper at D10 on 2/2.

Its also definitely been rougher for the coast. ORH sits at 32.5 inches of snow right now. If you run the years, ORH airport has never finished below 60 inches of snow for the season when they have at least 32" by this date. The sample size of that list is 26 seasons since 1948.

I intentionally did not list them as it was a post to highlight the big turnaround years....you can look up the ratter years if you want. Knock yourself out http://climod2.nrcc.cornell.edu/