ORH_wxman

For those who like visuals…you can see what I mean on the H5 plot here. Stretched out TPV lobe to our north and northeast which really holds that high in by acting as a brick wall and forcing the confluence with the trough moving eastward. That look has been largely absent the last couple winters.

One thing very nice synoptically about that setup is the TPV stretch lobe to our north and northeast. It really acts as a brick wall holding in a pretty legit airmass. That’s obviously key this early in the season to realizing any significant winter threat.

Thanks man. Being a truth-seeker isn't easy on that topic....my style is def more suited for the weather side. I wouldn't dismiss Friday night so handily....I'm not expecting some huge surprise snowstorm, but there could def be a burst of moderate or even heavy snow over elevated interior with that deep ULL moving just underneath us. I think temps would mostly prohibit any accumulation (except again, higher terrain if we cna get a moderate burst or better)...but first flakes are possible for many. Could even be a nasty cold steady rain on the coastal plain for a few hours friday night. We'll see, but unstable atmosphere with a bit of inflow should always be watched a bit.

Or posting empirical-based election predictions in OT while simultaneously trying to avoid getting dogpiled. At least there’s a pattern worth tracking. More than we can say for 80% of the last two winters.

Yeah this is why I’m questioning whether we revert to a 2-3 week torch after early December. I could def see a relaxation but if that WPO/EPO is going to keep reloading, then it would be difficult to remain AN for long stretches. We’ll see though…we’ve been faked out before on some of this longer range N PAC stuff the last few winters but at least we already have the good WPO/EPO in place this time.

I like that there's no real sign of breaking down the -WPO/EPO in the extended range on ensembles. That's going to be a key on whether December can sustain some good cold and snow chances or if we just get a 7-10 day transient period from near T-day to Dec 5th or so.

Yes. I was just joking to Scott further up in the thread in when the last time we saw a good high in eastern Ontario and western Quebec was? I can’t remember one at all recently. I think maybe the Feb 2023 event but my god, it’s been like pulling teeth to get one. Meanwhile, the weather gods were tossing them out like Halloween candy in the 2000s/2010s. I remember some of those SWFEs when it looked bad a few days out and then all of the sudden inside of 96 hours, “hey that high north of CAR has really trended stronger. We might get a warning front end thump”. Recently, Quebec highs have trended over the Flemish cap.

Yeah I think we'd be happy with anything at this point....nevermind the Euro solution of threatening to break November snowfall records that were set back in the November 26-27, 1898 storm.

D8-9 EPS is definitely favorable on the synoptics....this isn't a deep full-wavelength event, but it's pretty classic for an early season redeveloper....note the relatively shallow shortwave over the center of the country and you have west-based -NAO weakness and a strong 50/50 sig. You'll need all of those this early in the season to hold the high in place otherwise you just won't be able to overcome the antecedent warmth offshore this early. What we don't have a stout western ridge, which is why this probably would come in at a bit of a shallow angle....so you'll need that confluence. But at least the synoptics are there. We'll see if it still holds in another few days.

The system is long occluded by the time that ULL moves south of us so it's gonna be favoring different areas on almost every run. I don't think there's much accumulation potential but the higher terrain near you and even down through ORH and NE CT could see a coating if they get into a heavier burst or two. But right now, it's mostly "first flakes" novelty potential here. Without an arctic airmass, it's pretty marginal....esp lower elevations. Type of thing where it;s 38F and then maybe it drops to 35F or 34F in a heavier burst with wet flakes. Seems like we get into a more true semi-arctic airmass by later next week which is why there could be a shot at something next weekend if the cards fall right.

When was the last time we saw a high in eastern Ontario/western Quebec when a system approaches us from the southwest?

Congrats @scooter on the GFS for 11/29-30

@powderfreak, looks like a decent upslope event potential this weekend. Cold airmass too coming in for Tday and beyond as well. Good news for the World Cup at Killington.

Gotta watch for some unstable soundings on late Friday night and into early Saturday. GFS actually has some nice bursts of heavy wet snow even into lower elevations of SNE. But these are the types of things you won't really be able to get a good handle on until much closer. But when it's really cold aloft and you have 8C/km ML lapse rate in a saturated sounding, doesn't take much to get a few bursts.

Yep...to totally bust the drought, we'll need a very juicy winter. Finger's crossed we get it and most of it is frozen.

Yes we will need a lot more to fill the reservoirs and lakes back up a bit, but the fire danger will be massively reduced after this event.

I'm 99% sure the first Clark's meeting was Dec 2013 right before Christmas....I think it was the 23rd.

Dec 2017 was pretty good up here as well. Really 2017, 2019, and 2020 were all solid Decembers. With the exception of 12/17/20 though, they all sucked in SE MA to be fair to Brett. But we’ve had 3 garbage Decembers in a row now so hopefully this one can break the streak.

EPO and especially WPO are looking a lot better than recent years. We’ll see if that can maintain. @Typhoon Tip and I mentioned it a few times already and we talked about it last winter too. WPO has been kind of a turd in the punchbowl recently (it has even muted some of the recent -EPO bursts) and there’s a pretty strong signal it will be more favorable to start this cold season. That doesn’t guarantee us great results but it does mean we won’t underperform the cold dumps into Canada so when things do try to move SE, they are coming from a potent source region. It’s loading the dice a bit better for us than previously.

Forgetting about next week’s system for a minute, the EPS continue to trend too toward a colder start to December (and very end of November) This is actually looking a lot colder from a hemispheric pattern perspective than even a few runs ago. We’ll see how it looks as we get closer but this would likely be an interesting pattern to follow in early December if it maintains.

Sell the clown maps hard on this type of setup. Mountains in VT/NH would do ok but lower down would struggled unless you really crank omega and this far out that’s gonna be iffy…esp with somewhat weak thermal gradients. You worry about disorganization in precip field. Plus, still a chance the whole thing ends up further north. I still think there’s a good chance for some flurries and snow showers around the ULL on the weekend though. Many have a good shot at first flakes.

Interesting that the GEFS keep trending towards this -WPO/+EPO/-NAO look to end November and start December. The +EPO sounds bad but it’s not because of the -WPO is still able to supply arctic cross-polar insert into the PJ…this is something @Typhoon Tip and I were discussing some last year…how even when we got brief bursts of favorable EPO, a staunchly positive WPO was really being a turd in the punchbowl helping so many colder patterns underperform. This time, it could help if the ensembles keep trending that way. That pattern would be fairly interesting around here I think to start December.

Even if it tracks a touch north of us it’s still a cyclonic flow with lots of clouds/snow showers/flurries. So yeah, unless it tracks way north, I’d still feel decent about many getting first flakes. I’m not talking accumulations. We’d need it tracking south of us to really talk about accumulating snow outside the upslope spots.

Decent chance of first flakes for many next weekend with that deep ULL moving overhead. Prob no accumulation but the novelty is always there on first flakes of the season. No true arctic cold in sight until you flip the EPO/WPO region (broken record the last 2-3 winters) but you’ll at least get some seasonably coldish weather for a few days when you have a ULL like that overhead.

The year is 1990. Bruce Schwoegler just issued a forecast for 3-6" of snow. You immediately flip to channel 7 to see if Harvey Leonard is on board. He's similar but slightly less....3-5 inches is his forecast. You can't believe your eyes. We might actually get enough snow to cover all the grass blades and even shovel? You quickly change the channel again to channel 5 to see if Dick Albert is matching the other 2. Instead, it's Mark Rosenthal who is filling in that night. He says you might wake up to it "snowing to beat the band" and is forecasting 4-7". You almost faint from happiness. We're back to the dark days of our childhood.