ORH_wxman

That’s an upstate NY special on GFS. Does match climo a lot better than an SNE snowstorm. Still hope it comes back SE though. Would be nice to even just get on the board with small accumulations.

Yeah that seems the most likely. Though can’t rule out something smaller embedded around the TPV.

Prob need to start a December thread but EPS not backing down on the PAC pattern. Really consistent with holding that ridge axis right over the west coast

Last December we were relying on a huge progged NAO block. Those are inherently less stable than N PAC pattern…they have a more stochastic behavior. That’s also probably why you hear a lot of Mets say “I’ll roll the dice with a great PAC look any day”…those tend to verify more than random huge NAO blocks. Of course, if we actually get a great NAO block that pins a TPV in SE Canada, we will clean up, but it’s hard to trust model progs that show that. Right now, we’re relying on an NAO block for next week as we wait for the PAC to improve further. So it’s not surprising to see these shifts in the SE Canada look that make it harder to snow here. Esp in November. I’m cautiously optimistic for the first 10 days of December given the vastly improved N PAC. It’s funny…I went back and looked at some of the progs for last December and even the ones where we had some PNA ridging trying to poke up into EPO domain, we had a vortex over the WPO domain…it was always a turd in the punchbowl lurking beneath the surface.

Esp in November. Lol Even the euro is a decent shot of snow over interior N of pike. It’s hard to snow in the CP and lowlands that early.

Ukie is a total whiff. Flat. Lot of uncertainty around that Tday system. I think one thing is more clear though…the airmass is going to be marginal. A few days ago we had a stronger push SE from TPV which made the antecedent airmass better. We don’t see that as much now. Could still change, but if we do get an event, you’d favor elevations with that airmass.

It’s a mean position…what actually makes it nice is that is a lower risk for cutters. But esp for the coast, you want the trough axis pretty close…esp in December.

That western ridge is pretty pumped in the long range…esp on the EPS. Feel like the pattern is pretty ripe for a good setup on this look…hopefully the shortwaves cooperate

It is def possible but that’s always a risk when you have arctic cold pushing well south. I’m less worried in early December though when the baroclinic zone is much stronger near the coast and also further north versus, say, mid-January or something. You can’t really predict it very well though since it’s so dependent on individual shortwaves diving into the mean trough and the models can’t see those yet.

18z Euro looks kind of interesting at 144. Antecedent airmass isn’t great but cold enough for wet snow for a chunk of SNE and NY state..esp away from coast. Ideally, we’d like to trend both that TPV push E and SE and the shortwave a bit sharper at the same time

Early December is going to have a much better antecedent airmass I think for any threats. I think the coast would struggle mightily on these Tday/Friday solutions where the storm gets close enough. Still 6-7 days out though on next week’s threat so too early to be super confident either direction. It was colder this run but also flat…but if you can drive the cold in and then trend the shortwave sharper, then we could end up with a more widespread winter wx solution.

Yeah it should help fill in the huge bare spot in snow cover over Ontario. The extended range almost looks like a cold El Nino pattern with a big Aleutian low and corresponding PNA ridge....couple with a -WPO over the top....we'll see how that actually verifies, but if it's correct, then we're going to be in a cold pattern right through mid-December at minimum....it's not exactly an unstable pattern if it sets up. I'm still skeptical of these amazing N PAC looks on model guidance, but at the very minimum, we're not dealing with overtly hostile variations that we've had over the past couple winters.

GGEM is a pretty significant system Tday night.

Nobody’s getting accumulations in this airmass outside of the highest terrain unless it absolutely rips. Gotta watch it because it’s a bit unstable with that H5 cold pool aloft but you will still need those rates to overcome the BL.

Cautiously optimistic. Haven’t seen signs of the N PAC turning to crap. If anything, it improves as we get closer. Things can still go wrong but much better hemispheric look compared to recent winters.

18z GFS would have all our ponds frozen by the first week of December. Pattern of yore.

Yeah it’s one of those scenarios where if you can rip the column with massive omega, there could be a few hours of a surprise heavy wet snow. Column needs to cool a decent amount but we know huge dynamics can do it if they pan out.

I'd still give tomorrow night a low prob of something in the hills. Some guidance has it and some doesn't and some favor different areas. Just gonna have to wait and see. Plan on nothing, and be pleasantly surprised if it's more than a few wet flakes.

Yep, and I'll take a needle threader 33-34F event if offered right now....beggars can't be choosers....esp when: 1. The last 2.5 winters have been complete dogshit 2. It's still November....trying to get a 4-8" 26F powder deal isn't all that easy in November....even during Novembers of yore. That said, at least this is the *first* threat on the front end of a favorable pattern....there's prob more in the tank here as we go into early December assuming the ensembles aren't totally off their rocker.

Pattern is def more mature by the first week of December and basic climo is rapidly working in our favor by then. There's also some signs of west coast ridging during the first week of December....I'll believe it when I see it, but if it occurs, that would also help. Still, Tday not out of question yet.

Only issue I'd like to see be avoided (assuming we get a system in the first place) is for the PV lobe to not be stretched or pushed far enough eastward....we've seen a couple different solutions since 00z last night where the true colder airmass didn't quite advect into our area prior to the system, so it ends up more marginal. That cause of it was the TPV hanging back a little bit or being just weaker in general which prevent that stronger push of high pressure. Could still snow in that setup, but it would prob be much wetter and more elevation-dependent for accumulations.

That's the type of profile where latent cooling can help a lot too. Melting all those -3C to -4C aggregates is gonna use up a lot of energy and cool the BL. But obviously you want heavy rates to maximize the cooling.

The EPO/WPO situation is why I have some cautious optimism about December right now. Impressive how it reloads and stays solidly negative on the EPS and GEFS all the way though the first week of December with no signs of breaking down. We’ll still have to worry about the trough diving down a bit too far west at times (this actually happened on the euro last night which turned our snowstorm next weekend into a front ender that changes to rain) but at least when you have the cross polar flow, you have a legit source region. Guidance also tries to start linking it up with western ridging as we go into December so maybe we can get a larger scale system when that happens.

Both were pretty cold right before the event. 2002 had a quick arctic shot a few days after the event where I think temps got near 0.

Yes. 2002 and 2003 both had events on 12/5.