ORH_wxman

Prob starts as a bit of snow there before flipping. Might end as a few flakes too.

Yeah not really a New England thing but this pattern looks amazing for the LES belt. The mountains of VT are prob gonna get a lot of leftovers too which will be good for the ski areas. You get those little vort maxes rotating around the ULL and they pick up the LES bands and they hit the west slopes if Berkshires and Greens.

Unfortunate timing that you didn’t get back to CT for 2017-18. That was a very good winter too.

Yeah last night had a couple clippers and maybe an overrunning threat in clown range and all of the sudden the vibe is better, lol. But nothing is fundamentally different at all on guidance. Think of all those systems that try to get us at D10 with anice SFWE or overrunning look or even a coastal look and end up over BUF or inland runners once we get closer…that can happen to our benefit too in this type of pattern. Suppression turns into a coastal storm (saw a lot of that in 2015). Guidance isn’t going to to be able to sample shortwaves very easily over the Siberian arctic that then come over the WPO/EPO ridge into our domain that eventually become our threats. It’s just a hard thing for models to do that far out and especially in those data-sparse regions. None of this means we’re going to get a big snow event, but it does mean that we should relax a bit and wait until we get a lot closer to the meat of the pattern before worrying about individual threats. It’s easier said than done, understandably, when the last 2 winters have been hot garbage.

Wish I was over where we go in summer on Moose Pond near Bridgeton. They are gonna get croaked I think.

It’s hard to get wire to wire sub-freezing (or close to it) cold in December. You’re usually going to have a few days of 45+ in SNE outside the elevations so I wouldn’t worry about trying to sustain the pattern all the way through new years. It’s unlikely. But an ideal manifestation would be when you do get a relaxation, it’s only back to near normal temps or just slightly AN for second half of month when climo is colder anyway.

Ton of black ice here this morning. There’s some frost/rime on a some of the bushes and grass.

We’ll always have 2011…that includes weather too.

Euro has clipper for 12/4 and the GEFS has some support there even if the OP doesn’t. Mentioned this to Ray earlier in this thread that the 12/4-12/6 period has some decent meridional flow so while a large ticket event is unlikely until post-12/6, there’s def a chance for something northern stream before that…mostly likely a clipper but if you dig it enough it can turn into a redeveloper/Miller B-east type system. Lots of cold around during that window too so ptype issues would be minimized.

Could be something in the 12/4-12/7 range too but I agree a bit after that seems a little easier. But there’s some pretty good meridional flow during that time so even though there’s some wave spacing problems on guidance, it’s clown range and you never know how shortwaves will look as we get closer.

Wrong thread.

There’s nothing to say other than the pattern is going to be cold for much of early December. That will be a nice table setting for any potential storm systems…we need pretty decent negative departures to get snowstorms in early December outside of paste jobs for elevations. So hopefully the shortwaves cooperate. I can’t say anything that is going to make the pessimists change their tune. Only the weather can do that. I’d like to see a bit more analysis in this thread though and less bickering back and forth. Fingers crossed we get some good legit threats after the first few days of the month. I think the chances are higher than climo for sure in this pattern.

N ORH county above 1000 feet def has a chance. I wouldn’t go gangbusters there yet but it’s not crazy to think they might get several inches if this breaks right. It really is too bad it’s November without an arctic airmass in place.

Gonna need some decent rates too I think for anything other than a sloppy inch or two below 1000 feet. If we can trend 925mb about 1C colder, that would be a big difference over the interior. But right now, I’m fading anything over a couple inches of slop in interior elevated SNE.

12/5 produced a lot of events in the past (2002, 2003, 2009…even 2020 had the interior elevated paste job on 12/5).

It’s been a long time since we’ve had this type of consistently BN temps showing up on ensembles…esp in December but really anytime winter since prob 2021. EPS really is hammering the cold down. GEFS not quite as hard but still BN for the foreseeable future once we get past Friday. Usually the snow chances start manifesting when we get this type of cold in December. Hopefully that happens this time as well.

For selfish reasons, you’d prob welcome some solid cold before too much snow gets laid down in the foothills. Get everything frozen up solid before riding season. Prob the best early-season cold pattern we’ve seen in years…not that the bar has been set very high the last 5 years. But consistent cold in December has been hard to come by since 2017.

12/5 period (give or take a day) still the first one to watch for larger chunk of SNE imho. You have a developing PNA ridge that increases in amplitude quite significantly between about 12/3 and 12/6…so that is a potential flag for northern stream digging down into the mean trough in eastern US. Pretty good antecedent airmass would be in place unless the pattern dramatically changes on guidance.

Weak system with bad antecedent airmass. Sell clowns big time. Esp below 1000-1200 feet. TPV got stuck almost due north of us which is not where you want it. You want it east toward the 50/50 region to get a high building in. That is the main change from some of those colder solutions 3 days ago.

Yeah the MJO would suggest nothing like we’re seeing on model guidance. There’s a pretty big PNA ridge spike shown at around D11-12 that occurs so I’m wondering if that 12/5 period give or take a day is something to watch for a larger scale system. Much more pronounced on EPS than GEFS but still there on the latter.

That WPO has been such a persistent turd and it’s amazing how positive the EPO was last winter too despite it often being progged negative or neutral. It wasn’t as positive as the WPO but that WPO always ended up bullying it so it went positive too…and solidly. Let’s hope this year is different.

I experienced one in the texas panhandle one time. Was up in Dalhart, TX and there was a very strong synoptic wind event and it was relentless. There’s no trees to stop anything out there in the high plains. Just constant battering of 40-50 and gusts way higher.

@CoastalWx Weeklies are starting to cave for 3rd week of December. Previously showing a kind of torchy pattern but it’s keeping that ridge in the west now which delays the warmup. Don’t worry, I’m sure it will flip just in time for a grinch cutter. But interesting to see nonetheless given what we see at the end of the ensembles recently.

Often our best wind events over interior SNE are backside CAA in winter/cold season. We can rip on those.

Only chance of that happening is the PV lobe pushing further SE than currently progged and then sharpening that shortwave just enough to bomb it on the coast. Theoretically plausible but very unlikely.