ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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It's a very deep MAUL too...like well over 200mb thick...so that signifcantly increases the chance of TSSN.
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DTW with the rare 1/8 SM obs KDTW 171359Z 19004KT 1/8SM R03R/2000V2800FT +SN FG VV004 00/M02 A3017 RMK AO2 TWR VIS 1 P0001 T00001017
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Most models have looked great there in the midlevels. The ideal situation is to get the thump and then it deforms overhead as the whole thing starts sliding east
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Yeah I know there's probably amounts in other parts of the valley, but we can only go with the data we have and maybe extrapolate to a reasonable distance. But it was def bugging me after you said BDL had 1.3"....surprised I missed a first order station, so I at least wanted to get that on there.
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Jerry's massive fetish RPM maps....here's 09z...12z coming out as we speak
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Updated, lol:
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Yeah I actually must have just omitted or accidentally forgot to plot BDL on there. I do remember getting a much of traces on the valley locations. A lot of them being coops that probably waited until the morning of 5/10 to measure so they may have not captured measurable that had fallen the previous evening. That's always a risk with doing maps of veyr late season events....your data is more susceptible to obs time biases.
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BOS is a lock to get at least an inch. Any ptype algorithm that has BOS as rain with a 950mb temp of like -0.5C is tossed. (I'm looking at you GFS)
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I remember the 4/26/00 event too. Terribly forecasted IIRC. Had 2-3" in ORH county. Surprise ULL. Those Lowell numbers are prob way lowballed in '87 and '77 though....but that coop I think typically only measured once per day, so that time of the year if you miss the measurement at the end, then you'll prob be measuring melting slush hours later.
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4/19/18....yeah there was some light accumulations in spots.
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5/18/02?
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Jack will prob be ORH county to maybe E berks where they don’t dryslot quickly and the deeper moisture stays for longer. You’ll do fine though.
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Might as well give Jerry his fetish maps one last time this season between now and tomorrow night... Here’s 00z:
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Overdone obviously, but ORH would be my pick for the jackpot in this outside of some random spot at 2k in the berks.
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Yeah Tblizz hanging onto snow while Kevin is dumbfounded. Lol.
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That’s a big weenie run though for most of MA.
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00z NAM is back to furnacing southern areas. Every time I think it’s finally going to stabilize....
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Man...18z GFS really weenie’d out on the developing CCB. Just saw it. Looks overdone/zonked compared to other guidance but that was some decent 3 hourly totals...prob would keep accumulating into the morning hours over ORH county in that scenario. May still have to watch for that feature. Could add on some accumulation...esp prior to about 15z when the sun angle starts getting a bit high.
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You might just be able to stay up for it...it's prob like 11pm-3am out that way.
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Yes....subtle south shift. As expected. Too far north at 12z. Looks closer to 06z again albeit more zonked on QPF. Prob not realistic on the widespread 0.75-1.0" QPF in MA/CT/RI,
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Soundings def have a massive crosshair sig on them during the initial thump....there's going to be good snow growth I think.
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Some of the 00z snow maps had last night factored in...there was several hundreths of weenie snow this morning that don't appear on the 12z totals.
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No, the Kuchera formula is actually not that complicated...it takes the max temp in the column between and if it's greater than 271K (basically 28F), the formula is ratio = 12 + 2(271K - Tmax)....so if the max temp is like 33F, you'd have ratio = 12 + 2 (271 - 274) = 12 - 6 = 6...so we should get like a 6 to 1 ratio if a Tmax of 33F....if it's 32F, then maybe like 8 to 1.
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Wonder why the Kuchie maps are even higher? They should be punishing the amounts for the sfc temps being slightly above freezing. In fact, the Kuchera algorithm starts punishing temps above 28F.
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The end date is Monday 12z....I see initialization as 00z on both maps.
