ORH_wxman

Flakes on Wednesday night/early Thursday morning?

Cranky nails it 5 weeks late?

Fixed your post

Sub-520 thicknesses 10 days into May. Ridiculous.

No more cold loading into Canada after 4/20.

Lol. Unreal. At least we can still pop 55-60 with -1 or -2 850s this time of year if it’s sunny, but good grief. Gonna be like pulling teeth to get a 70F in the first half of May aside from this weekend maybe. Where the hell was this pattern in winter? What an epic period we would have had if the last 6 weeks had happened in February/early March. Theres gonna be another snow threat I bet. Prob NNE but if there’s ever a pattern to try and get flakes down here in May, this would be it.

Yeah I think it was 22 out of 92 days.

The Euro ensemble mean 540 line moves south of BOS/ORH at 96 hours and doesn't move north again until 276 hours. Over a full week in May...basically the entire 2nd week of May, not even the first week. How screwed up is that?

I figure you will get a kick out of today's daily Euro 200 hour clown show:

There may be something to that....I was just checking over ORH's daily record low maxes (these tend to be less sensitive to changing land use than minimums) and about 22% of them during the March/April/May months are from 2000-onward. That is despite the period of record only being 20 years out of 125 (about 16%) and despite climate warming. We wouldn't expect 22% vs a 16% rate to be that weird in a static climate, but it definitely is a little suspicious in a warming climate. We'd expect later years to be underrepresented and instead it is the opposite. They are over-represented.

Cranky said the cold was going to be cut off from the CONUS after 4/20

Too early to get a good handle on the low. We need to wait until mid/late June. Jaxa (and Area) at this point in 2012 was higher than 1996 (the highest min year on record).

Gotta love the 516 thicknesses over NYC for 5/10

Yeah, I mean I could have waited until the ensembles come out, but that is less fun, lol. The ensembles have actually trended stronger with the anomaly in that area the past several cycles. I highly doubt the intensity of the OP verifies, but that is pretty cold stuff over Canada on the ensembles.

Cranky says there's no cold left in Canada after 4/20

yeah.....The problem with a mean trough over us is you just end up with too many days like today....yeah, when you get lucky and end up under high pressure, it's' a bluebird 60/32 type day...and it feels nice when you're out at peak heating. But that mixed with days like today is why we get -5 to -10 departures consistently for weeks. Your "nice days" are still average or below average. Hoping we break the streak of this weekend and pop a couple positive departures....but it looks like we go back into the shitter again after that.

Lol. Cranky kept saying that Canada cold was done after like 4/20 so we were done. Yet we somehow keep advecting in 530 thicknesses every 4-5 days.

Yeah it was nice until about 3pm. Then the overcast and marine layer hit. You know we’ve been dumpster diving when a 60F high before the marine layer comes through is a great day at the end of April.

Pileateds hang around our woods too. I don't think I've seen an oriole since we moved into our current house, though I've heard them on occasion. We saw a scarlet tanager though which was pretty cool. We've also had a Great Horned owl nesting here for 2 of the last 3 years.

As long as we're using the BDL/Hartford thread....coldest monthly max temps for April 2020 67F 1940 69F 1926 69F 1975 70F 1924 70F 1920 70F

Kevin trying to polish a pretty epic April turd this morning. Just admit this has been horrific and move on. Yeah, there's probably a couple years that may have been worse with a 6 day wheel-o-rhea, but that isn't much of a consolation. That's like saying 2002-2003 or 1993-1994 winters sucked because it wasn't as good as 2014-2015.

I remember in 2009, ORH went until late July before hitting 80F that summer (they did hit 80F in spring a few times though). That June/July 2009 combo was like living in Labrador.

I should add that BOS is going to do this as well....BOS current April 2020 max is even lower than ORH at 62F.....their previous record was 66F set in 1873, 1888, 1946, and 1989. So they are probably going to smash it by 4F.

We'll see what happens tomorrow....but it's looking increasingly like ORH is going to set their record low monthly max for April. Their high so far this month is 63F. Previous record is 65F set in 1966 and 1924. Doubt they can pull much above 60F tomorrow.

Had some pokes of sun, but it's a losing battle at the moment. Though satellite shows some promise for this afternoon. You know it's been dogshit when 49F and mostly cloudy at lunchtime at the end of April feels like a "win"....but it actually does.