ORH_wxman

GFS is probably the perfect solution for SNE just off the coast....it is winding up the ML circulations very quickly and really going to town early enough to draw in that CCB cold.

Hangs back a better CCB....that's what many will want for snow if you don't have big elevation.

NAM still pretty flat...does have a nice burst though over interior MA/CT/NW RI that would probably give a couple of sloppy inches.

Need something like the GFS which wraps up the storm much quicker. Otherwise sell the accumulations below 2k and just expect some flakes...rare in itself in May but not historic.

It's all about getting that CCB going....it taps really cold air once it does but you need to get that circulation going otherwise the low levels will stay too warm.

Euro def came SE.

Euro still locked in tracking over E MA. Chickens to Maine jack.

Yeah that radar is bark worse than bite and it’s a bit shredded. Won’t be like what euro was showing yesterday and prior. If it somehow does verify, then the euro shit the bed inside of 12 hours today, lol.

Euro was too far NW...was showing that CCB slug several runs in a row

30 miles SE or NW makes a huge difference. Don’t get married yet. Euro is king but it’s been wobbling a little too. It actually quietly shit the bed in tonight’s system inside of 36 hours.

Sorry guys. Ran the 18z NAM out of my basement. It’ll go back on 00z.

Decent chance for flakes during Saturday even if you don't get them from the main system....the instability under the ULL is going to produce a lot of convective showers that are probably going to be graupel/straight snow. Esp any heavier ones.

Today went about 30 miles SE at the last second. Still disagreement on this one. I'd favor CNE/NNE right now, but nothing is set in stone.

May '77 was prob once in 100-200 year event...this one couldn't match it even if it took the perfect track. It's not quite the type of upper air situation May 77 was with the slower moving (but rapidly intensifying) cutoff. The cold shot though is pretty historic.

Chicken choker on the Euro

I'm predicting a gradual transition from mid spring to late spring by early June

RPM is a whiff SE....lol. Ukie/GFS were also whiffs SE. Pretty big spread for <3 days out. I think the more amped solutions have the right idea, but by how much is the huge question. Even an 80/20 compromise betwene something like the NAM and the whiffs puts much of SNE into accumulating snow. It's also possible that the models are so out to lunch that even the amped solutions like the NAM and Canadian aren't far enough north and this ends up an SLK to Powderfreak snowstorm. We've seen that happen before too inside of 72 hours.

Lol...it's a 66 hour NAM....25 miles makes a massive difference.

Not much...ends as snow...maybe a coating to an inch?

NAM crushes NW MA, the chickens into Maine this run.

In ORH, there was relatively little tree damage up on winter hill, but once you were down below about 600 feet it was really noticeable. Pretty amazing actually.

Airmass is legit on the back side of the system....wouldn't be surprised to see even the coast flash to heavy snow for a brief time before it ends.

Lol. NAM is legit snowstorm for many in SNE. That’s so cold down in the 900-925 layer once the system gets going. It’s like -3C at 925mb.

Lol NAM has advisory snows for SE MA tomorrow night.