ORH_wxman

Hovering near 80F at the moment....running about 2F cooler than yesterday at this point. Still pretty muggy though.

NNE (esp Maine) blowing away the competition

Massive losses in area from the dipole pattern that just happened.....we now only trail 2012 for lowest area on this date. 2007 and 2010 (and to a lesser extent 2016 and 2019) lose huge area though over the next week, so the question is whether we can stay in the top 3 or top 5 as the weather goes to a reverse dipole over the arctic basin.

Yeah I remember you hated it like 2 years ago. Lol. If I had a pool or lived near the beach I might embrace the dews more but give me 80/55 any day. Not like the kids can’t play outdoors. My kids were outside all during this stretch of 73/40 weather too. My 4 year old cant get enough of outdoors.

Yep. I’ll even be fine with 85 if dews stay in the 50s. You can do both pool and non-water outdoor activities in that. 85/68 is useless if you aren’t at the beach or pool.

This stuff is garbage. Give me yesterday all summer.

First time I skied at Jay PEak, I understood why they get destroyed by upslope more than any area....I looked to the north and northwest into Canada and it was flat as a pancake.

AWT.....

Fozz brought the Mid-Atlantic climo with him last winter. He gets the blame. We can blame Phineas if 2020-2021 sucks.

Yeah he moved up in like late winter 06-07 (when interior MA up into NNE was on a huge rally in the 2nd half of that winter)....then he gave everyone '07-'08 and '08-'09....I think he moved back before the dud '09-'10 winter? He basically probably lived in SE NH during one of their snowiest 2.5 years on record.

80/53. We take.

Yeah maybe there....around here it has made some colder nights but the daytime highs are still driving the departures slightly positive. We haven't had any of those 52/47 type days yet with onshore flow and drizzle.

Lack of precip this month has also helped keep it above normal....we almost always have an ugly onshore linger low that keeps us in the 50s a few days....haven't had anything close to that this month.

Yeah I'm a huge fan of December snow....which is why I couldn't rank last season an F. We had pack here for like 27 out of 31 days and 27" total. That is an excellent month. Would have been better without that hideous cutter around 12/8-12/9 but at least we refreshed right after that with a 5-6 incher. I'm still waiting for a Dec 1995 though....basically where we run the table in December. Those are hard to get. All of our recent good Decembers that had big events before Xmas had black marks on them....2007, 2008, 2013, 2017, 2019...2009 was ok, but even that had the ugly cutter right after Xmas. Latitude is really important in December though....moreso than other winter months including March.

Nice. Yeah your spot is gonna have a crazy gradient from just a few miles away. You’ll even have quite a bit more than Gorham center I’d bet on many days. Berlin is a pit for snow...they might literally average half your snowfall. Prob 80-90ish but it increases quickly heading south.

The microclimate extremes didn’t occur to me until I was much older in college. I sort of knew about them in high school in my own area but I still assumed a place like BTV was far superior to the ORH hills for snow until I started driving up there sometimes during winter. There were a number of times they had bare ground or very very thin cover when I left N ORH with 6”+ OTG. That’s when I realized the retention aspect there was pretty weak because I knew they averaged about 10” more per season. Then I’d drive east into the mountains and the snow would go from almost nothing in Williston or western Richmond to being totally buried within a few miles. It was crazy. I didn’t realize microclimate gradients like that were common there.

I'm also wondering if we're finally going to change the PAC up a bit....all that heat in the eastern PAC to the north of ENSO region (like off coast of Baja and CA) is eroding more than most recent years. Still not there yet, but something to track

Owners of clorox stock?

Maybe Leominster if things go right? I feel like Gardner has no shot with their elevation. Were only like +17 or so at 850. Tough for anyone outside the real torch areas to hit 90 with those ML temps.

Yeah I’d be surprised if he was below 165-170” if we assume the current cocorahs site’s roughly 185” average is accurate based on 11 years of data (a dubious assumption)....though maybe it depends where on his property...lol. It seems like that plot of land goes from like 1575 feet near the entrance down to below 1375 at the far end toward rt 2. I think the house is around 1500? Nice. Hopefully you pull a -30 in one of the really big arctic outbreaks we get once every few years. I’d bet there’s some diamond dust fairly frequently in that area. One of my favorite phenomena.

Warmest it gets at 850 is +18C...and some models struggle to get above +16....plus SSW flow. I'd bet against much over 90F in eastern areas unless we trend a little warmer aloft or more WSW at the sfc. BDL can put up a 95 though with those numbers....they'll cook at least excuse imaginable. NNE gets near +20 at 850 so you're gonna see big numbers again up there. CAR might be the warmest in NE on Thursday, lol.

Make sure you get a thermometer set up there. The local Cocorahs doesn't do temps....I'd be curious to see how low you can go in the elevated valley between those 3k peaks to your north and the Presidentials to your south.

Time to bump the sea ice tracking for 2020....we're coming off last year's top 3 finish for both area (3rd lowest) and extent (2nd lowest). 2020 is off to a slower start than 2019 was, so it will need to catch up some more to get into contention. 2020 started off fast in May with extensive meltponding (most on record), but that trend reversed near the end of the month and early June when extensive refreezing of melt ponds caused the area to stall. We've been falling faster again recently. For those who follow this thread regularly, you know I like to track NSIDC area in late June because it is the most accurate predictor of minimum area/extent later in the season. Here is where we currently stand on area vs other years (i.e. 2019 had 250k less area than this year on this date) 2019: -250k 2018: +300k 2017: +230k 2016: -150k 2015: +90k 2014: +340k 2013: +390k 2012: -600k 2011: +120k 2010: +150k 2009: +860k 2008: +410k 2007: +10k As you can see, we're running somewhat low in the post-2007 world, but not as low as several years. You'll also note that some years like 2011 which finished very low were not standing out yet. There is still time for things to change in either direction which is why I usually start tracking closely in mid-June through the end of the month when I make a prediction based on the month-end values. There is currently a hostile pattern over the arctic for the ice which is aiding some big numbers right now, but the forecast looks to go toward a reverse dipole pattern by the end of the week and stay there all of the next week if ensemble guidance is correct....so that would likely slow down the losses. I'll update this tracker every few days until month-end....probably doing daily updates in a final few days of the month.

Yeah SDD captures the tenor of the season in terms of retention much better than max depth. Max depth is a crude way to look at it but SDD is a more complete picture.

67.5 here right now...it's actually cooler than ORH to my west....ocean influencing the eastern temps for sure.