ORH_wxman

ORH actually dropped to 90F on their next 5 min ob after the 1654z reading. They’ve since recovered back to 91F but have rotted there for about 25 min. I’d like to see 93 at 2pm for them to have a shot at 95+. This wind direction isn’t great though. It’s trying to go more WSW but I’d really like to see a period of almost due W. Their bread and butter though is WNW and NW.

Yeah for SNE you want it more westerly. 210 is actually coming off LI sound for most of CT and RI/E MA in addition to less downsloping...BDL/BAF are far enough northwest to be ok though. You can prob throw places like FIT in there too tucked up right against WaWa to the SW. NH is definitely better off. You get that good compression off Monads/ORH hills/Wapack range.

This 210 wind direction isn’t gonna get it done for daily record stuff. Even like 250-260 would be a lot better.

Point and click is 95F for ORH. That would tie the record from the beastly July ‘91 heatwave. I’m a bit skeptical though. I’d like to see the wind be more WNW at least in the morning. SW wind all day is tough to go really high there.

Yeah ORH spiking to 102 would be pretty typical of an overnight heat burst. Some of the coastal plain may breach 110.

I still think you fail to realize that dewpoint scales for sensible wx feeling we’re created off of airport obs. So when they said a dew of 63 feels muggy at an airport, that was like 68 at a PWS....once an airport reaches 68, its starting to feel oppressive because PWS would read like 73-74.

Yeah GIR is tough to achieve on a very consistent basis. Even in my really good rounds, I’d prob get like 11 or 12 out of 18...unless I was playing a cow pasture with a 68 rating. The pitching game and scrambling was the easiest way to take several strokes off my game and then on those days where I was feeling it with my driver/irons, I could score really low. If you can get some consistent coaching/lessons, then you can probably get the iron game to a very high/consistent level where your “floor” is like 80-82...but most people don’t have that kind of financial/time commitment combo available to them. Golf is a tough game, lol.

Yeah that course had like a 73.5 rating or something back then. It was frickin’ hard. I assume it’s still similar as it would be foolish to alter a RTJ course very much. Those rounds I had there were just a combo of playing almost every day and running into some flukes as well. I remember on one of the 76 rounds I holed out a bunker shot that was easily going to roll off the the green to the other bunker but it hit the pin and went in. That kind of stuff happens when you are going good. And RE: your game....sounds like you were pretty close to getting into that 6-7 handicap zone where I peaked back in by age 18-20 years. Almost all the difference is the play inside of 100 yards at that point. The pitching game and scrambling around the green is probably where almost all my improvement came from going from scores in the 82-85 range down to 76-80 range. Theres some smaller improvement in the irons and such, but so much of the scoring came from consistently getting up and down around the greens and giving yourself legit makable putts from 50-100 yards out....frequently your birdies on short par 4s and par 5s.

Chris, my official peak I think was junior year. August/September 2001. Jeff Smith and I played like 3-4 times per week at Robert Trent Jones golf course...started before classes began in August and then we played into September before the weather turned uglier. For some reason, it just all came together in a 4-5 round period (that can happen when you’re playing so much). Smith was like, “dude you need to go out for the Cornell team again...”. You know that course isn’t easy...esp from the blues which we played all the time. I did this in a 4 round stretch....79-76-77-76. And I think each round adjacent to those 4 was like an 80 or 81. I couldn’t miss. The first 76 happened kind of by accident...I had played fairly well on the front but nothing crazy...shot 41. Then on the back like 5-6 holes in, he goes “dude you’re 1 under on the back”. Ended up parring in from that point for a 41-35. I’ll prob never reach that peak again. All downhill after age 20.

Yeah I’ve played about 2 times per year since I had my first kid. Second one was born last year and only got 1 round in. To be fair, I wasn’t playing much even before that from my peak days 15-20 years ago. I was maybe getting out 3-5 times per year...except 2014 and 2015 I managed to get out a little more and my game was coming back at that point. Had several rounds in the 80-82 range. Then the first one was born in 2016.... Suffice to say, my days of a 6 handicap aren’t coming back any time soon.

Playing on Tuesday for the first time this year. Only played once last year too. Either playing Juniper Hills (Northborough) or Shining Rock (Northbridge)

You got destroyed by Scooter. Just own it man. Even if he didn’t explicitly say Friday would be below 80F, he was very skeptical of your call for 80s all week. The BDF hung on an extra 18-24 hours...you never forecasted it at all. Own the wins....but own the losses too.

That’s pretty awesome. You got 102 at BOS and it’s in the 60s up there in Maine.

Scooter 3 DIT 0? You hate to see it...

Oh and I forgot that when we got in the the room, all the decor looked straight out of like the early to mid 1970s....which now makes sense because the place opened in 1970 and hasn’t been updated since....lol

It’s off mountain rd but on the other side of the lake. Schrader Lane I think it’s called. It has an amazing view of pleasant mountain (the mountain next to Shawnee). Hilarious story about evergreen valley...first time I took Megan up to Sunday River years ago, we were doing a budget trip and found this little place called “evergreen valley inn”....like 20-25 minutes south of Sunday River. We pull up and there’s six packs of beer and a gallon of milk sitting outside in the snow staying cold and about 25 snow mobiles parked on the side of the place. The guy at the desk asks if I’m paying cash or credit, I say cash, and he writes me a paper receipt that looked like it was from 1975. I asked him what was up with the snow mobiles and such and that’s when he gave me a mini history of the place and how it used to be the main ski hotel for a former ski resort called “Evergreen Valley”. It’s now used as a popular lodging spot for riders as there’s several trails that intersect around there...and they get the occasional Sunday River skier too as a budget option not too far from the resort like we were doing that trip. We drove by the old ski lodge once it was light out the next morning...you could see the old trails still faintly visible too in the growth of the trees on the mountain. Apparently it went defunct after the 1981-1982 winter.

Yeah we’ve become addicted to that area ever since we vacationed on Moose Pond back about 4-5 years ago. We’ve returned to the same house every summer.

It’s pretty damned good there. Prob 75-90” average (from southeast to northwest) with excellent retention....that retention is the big thing. Once you get near Sebago and north or northwest, the retention is ridiculous. By the time you are up toward Brigdton, it never melts. Western Maine (and adjacent NH) is the CAD capital of New England.

Yeah you gotta use standard dev so that you are comparing apples to apples. A place like BOS has a much higher variance on their annual snowfall relative to average than Stowe does or even dendrite or ORH. Likewise, mid-Atlantic cities have an even higher variance than BOS relative to their averages. Using standard deviation adjusts for all of this. Years where BOS gets like 90”+ is probably like when Stowe (village, not mountain) gets like 175”+. (Can’t remember for sure but I recall you saying 175 was a monster number for in-town snowfall)

There is a pretty decent covariance between NNE and SNE snowfall. It’s generally quite rare for one region to get smoked for the winter while another has a ratter. There’s exceptions in each direction of course. When I line up the NNE blockbuster winters, I’m usually saying “that was a good (or great) one down here”. Though if you have to pick a region with the lowest covariance outside of N Maine (might as well be in Labrador there), it’s probably yours. We tend to have the highest covariance with the southern half of Maine and then NH....no surprise, as those areas are most likely to share huge storms with us. But even when I look at huge N VT winters, most of them were good or great here. There’s a few head scratchers like ‘98-‘99.

I think we’re up about 10% this year alone. Most of that in the past 3-4 months. Flight to exurbs is real at the moment.

The early 1950s were absolutely horrific for snow in New England. Those winters were torches too. You're gonna be like college kid who's only had a beer in high school and then does a keg stand their first party....lol. Even a ratter up there will seem great the first year or two. But once you get a real winter, then you'll start calibrating.

I think the closest I ever came to not reaching 4" was 1988-1989. We didn't reach a 4" event until 3/24/89. It was poorly forecasted too....was supposed to be all rain, but we had fat aggregates at 31F for hours late afternoon and all evening....had about 7" where I was in Holden, MA (just NW of ORH).

Chalk up another W for Scooter....two days in a row below 80F.

Yeah I do not care about local jackpots that much....they are fun, but I wouldn't sacrifice snowfall for them to occur. Like I wouldn't take a +0.5 sigma snowfall winter when many others were normal or below normal over a +1 sigma snowfall winter where say, NNE, was +1.5 sigma.