ORH_wxman

Wonder if we can suck up the hurricane making landfall in NOLA and run into the cold air affecting SE for an early September blizzard.

Yeah once in a while we get one. I think 1998 had a big event. But usually the month is really boring. Nah, we probably get a legit April snow event every 2-3 years on average...and we can get synoptic wind events still (like we had this year that caused some damage). TCs in September are a much lower frequency than April snows and wind events. April for sure has the most miserable weather though...I’ll vote for that. Lol.

There’s been some subpar ones here but definitely minority. The monster ratter was 1954-55...least snowiest winter on record at ORH. 2005-06 and 1974-75 were OK but not great...1964-65 maybe slightly better. But a lot of goodies are on the list: 2017-18 2016-17 2008-09 2000-01 1995-96 1983-84 1971-72

Sept might be the most boring weather month we have in New England...almost nothing exciting happens outside of the rare rogue TC. But it probably has some of the nicest weather of the year.

Most guidance still going for a weak La Nina....I was speculating on moderate about a month ago, but it seems we lost the easterlies and WWBs put a halt on it. But very recently, the easterlies have picked back up, so we'll see if there another late push to get things going. Weak La Nina can be very good though....some of our big ones in the past 30 years in weak La Nina have been 1995-1996, 2000-2001, 2008-2009, and 2017-2018

The reduction in extent losses was inevitable with how compact the ice had become (I made a post 5 days ago on this). However, we have had some good area losses recently, so there will be room for extent losses to pick back up if we can get another favorable pattern....for now, the reverse dipole looks to intensify over the next week, and then we'll see what happens after that.

For a long time, the summers in the late 1940s and early 1950s really stood out, but they are now getting surpassed by some of these recent summers. I was randomly looking at “summer to date” temps a couple days ago for ORH and saw that the coldest summer on record “to date” was 2009....feels like eons ago, lol. 1949 i believe is still the hottest summer on record statewide in MA but this summer may challenge it if we have a torch August.

Mosquitos are brutal up there though.

Looks like the last ob was 7/23 at 11am

LL lapse rates are kind of meh during this....hence the "underperformance"....we'd expect higher terrain to perform slightly better in the weak lapse rate environment.

Mesoanalysis has a little weenie pocket of 20C 850s over FMH to MVY/ACK....so I think your assessment is correct.

I think whatever site you are using is just converting 34C obs to Fahrenheit....but the problem with that is it is not getting the 34C ob to the nearest tenth. It doesn't differentiate from 33.8C to 34.3C and they all show up as 34C = 93.2F....the faux appearance of precision.

I don't take MADIS at face value, but I look for noticeable drift from a typical baseline. So if that station's baseline is normally, say, 1F warm....I assume that is normal and due to non-instrumental factors. But when it goes from like 1F to 3F on a steady drift, that's when it deserves attention. KBOS was a perfect example from 2018 until earlier this year...it had just a steady deterioration, so it was a red flag. Sometimes a "step change" can be because of other mesonets coming online...but other times it can be due to some big change at the airport (ala SEA-TAC)....so those require a little more caution when assuming something might be amiss.

Here's several others.....I don't see a pattern on these ones. Some of the MA ones got larger error bars starting in late summer 2019...kind of went haywire, but they don't have a pattern of discernible drift. BVY had kind of a step-change to cooler around then.

We'll have to check all the other ones and see if there's a pattern.

Posted MADIS above....I'm betting they are running about 2F too warm. Seems their normal baseline was around 1F....but they are down around 3F these days.

That is insane for 10am...esp at HYA. They are definitely on the watch list.

We usually need really good boundary conditions to perform high end heat (like widespread 95+) with 850s in the 18-19C range. It can happen of course but today seemed like it was fighting all day. Prob didn’t help that we started the day more like 15-16C according to the CHH/ALB raobs. Tomorrow will have a better initial starting point.

Seems like southern areas did ok vs expectations. Barely got to 90F here though. I was never overly impressed with the 850 temps today though. They were hovering below 20C most of today.

Everyone gets stuffed back indoors once the weather turns colder around here so it’s definitely going to come back some. But as long as people keep wearing masks when indoors in public, it’s gonna be hard to have big outbreaks.

Indoor dining has been open in all New England states for over a month (some states for 2 months). No noticeable effects. But most have rules of either 25% capacity or no more than 6 per table (MA). No bars....and people are following mask guidelines elsewhere indoors.

Dendrite’s Drumsticks.

Congrats Scandinavia

Yeah if your irons are pretty shoddy off the tee then it definitely makes sense to go with woods and just get more distance. A lot of amateurs don’t hit long irons well to begin with...so there is little point in using them at all and just stick with hybrids. My long irons are personally much straighter off the tee than woods so I’ll use them 3 or 4 times a round on a par 4. Most other holes I use a driver because my 3 wood isn’t any more accurate...maybe just marginally so. Only time I might use a 3 wood off the tee is on the occasional hole where it’s a sharp dog leg at about 240-260ish....so I still want a bit more distance than a 3 iron but I’m worried I may drive it through the fairway with my driver.

I was looking at average July max temps at ORH the other day and was trying to look at the decadal averages to see where we would go and was a little surprised at them... 1980s: 79.8 1990s: 78.9 2000s: 78.1 (!!) 2010s: 81.2 (lol)