ORH_wxman

1934 had a colder peak arctic outbreak but yeah...pretty amazing. Never thought 1934 could be surpassed.

Yeah don’t sell the min temps short that month. They were fricken cold. It just got completely overshadowed by the apocalyptic snow.

4 max temps of 90+ at ORH this summer. Thats their long term average too. That’s all you need to know about the maxes up here....it was almost all consistent high mins and above average highs with very little onshore flow or BDFs or stratiform rain events. Not impressed by the magnitude of the heat at all. Just the consistency of it. Down on the BDL tarmac it was clearly more impressive.

2016 is a tough bar to clear. Lowest temp readings at BOS and ORH since 1957. I think ORH had 7 lows below 0F in Feb 2015 which is really good for February. Peaked at -9F which ties the Jan 2011 cold shot and beats the Jan 2005 cold shot (-8F) right before the blizzard that year.

Thankfully I think ORH will fall back below 1949 before August finishes for hottest summer...cant let a summer with a weak-ass 4 days over 90F get the crown. 1949 had 17 I think. Lol.

Can you get the American chestnut to survive to maturity without the blight attack?

You'll have to explain to me what I am backpedaling on. You were the one who made a ridiculous short term prediction that will bust. Not me.

Yes....that doesn't change that you said there was no way the cool shot would trend south.

Sometimes I feel that way but then I think about how many cold Marchs and Aprils we’ve had recently...although this year March was finally a torch again but then April took a dump on our face. Its also funny, we were getting so many warm Novembers for a while but the last couple have been absolutely frigid including our coldest November day on record in 2018. Recently, February has been a torch too after a string of cold and snowy ones from 2013-2015. Going on a strictly empirical analysis, December has warmed the most in our area (about 0.5F per decade) while January (about 0.15F per decade) has warmed the least out of the winter months. If you want the one month that hasn’t warmed at all (at least quickly looking at ORH airport since it’s inception in 1947)...October is your month.

No we came down yesterday. My grandparents have a place in Yarmouth that they don’t use much anymore. We got a pretty epic sunset at grays beach last night. With the boys playing out on the sandbars while it happened. Let them stay up late. Lol.

I should go knock on Phil’s door. He’s like a mile away from here, lol.

In Yarmouth right now. Hopefully that storm hold together.

Lol

I’ve always thought there was pretty compelling evidence that the 134F wasn’t real. Its a much tougher case to say for sure it was under 130F, but I don’t think questioning the 134F is that nefarious.

Historically there have been some crazy swings in temperatures in the ice cores and sediment cores. The Holocene has actually been unusually stable compared to previous epochs.

Hopefully we keep squashing it a little more each run. We get an MCS into SNE that run.

Yeah I think the Younger Dryas event about 13,000 years ago was the most cataclysmic climate event in the past 50 or 100 thousand years....and there's some evidence is may have produced mass cooling of several degrees C in as little as a few decades.....still off by a few orders of magnitude to the movie's days or a couple weeks if we're being generous.

There was a paper that came out maybe 7 or 8 years ago that was showing what snowfall averages would be across the US by the 2030s/2040s. The numbers were laughable....using their percent reductions by region, it would put ORH somewhere in the mid 30s inch range and BOS in the low 20s. If you took all of ORH and BOS winters that were torches (say more than 2F above average)....they'd average well above those projected values. I remember at the time running the numbers...I think BOS was like around 28-29" for their top 10 warmest winters and ORH was around 48-49". Sometimes these papers just don't pass the smell test....makes you wonder how they get through peer review. But then I have to remind myself that many of these people aren't scrutinizing snowfall the way some of us sickos do...they are probably more concerned with temps, and then throw the snowfall in there to perk up the paper. But still....if you're gonna throw in snowfall, make sure your numbers look realistic. As for the midwest/Great Lakes....they are in one of the areas of the CONUS that has seen the least winter warming in the last 30 years....the upper plains/upper Rockies actually has a cooling trend since the late 80s/early 90s....the Great Lakes and upper midwest are more like flat. It is definitely a result of these more commonplace AK ridges that we've seen the past 10-15 years....they really drive the cold air south into the northern plains/rockies and lakes....New England has been on this at times but not to the extent as the midwest/plains.

There's also unknown negative feedbacks....ala Hansen et al's "Day After Tomorrow" scenario where we see a mass Northern Hemispheric cooling event via the AMOC gone haywire. My original point wasn't really to take the "realistic" worst case scenario numbers as ironclad....more just add some relative probabilistic logic to the idea that Maine would become like NYC/EWR. The worst case scenarios require some "questionable" assumptions about energy use (such as reverting to so much coal that we have a 7-fold increase from current-day usage....this despite that coal has likely already peaked globally circa early/mid 2010s)

It won't happen....even the borderline realistic worst-case warming scenarios have around 5C of warming over the next couple hundred years....a place like AUG is about 12-13F (7C) colder than EWR/NYC in the winter. There's some crazy predictions of like 6-10C on the higher end of RCP 8.5 scenarios out to 2200-2300, but none of those actually pass the smell test....mostly because RCP 8.5 itself is almost impossible to achieve based on their assumptions of energy use over the next several decades.

I want it warm in the fall. Highs of 45F in October are utterly useless. I can maybe get on board with normal temps in Sept.

Weakening on latest frame

Yeah maybe higher MCS potential.

Euro is trying to squash the torch on this run...still gets us next Thursday, but definitely more doubt in there. Hopefully it gets squashed further on future runs.