ORH_wxman

Yeah you need a really tight gradient to get snow in W MA out of an ORH track. That’s like saying a track over scooters fanny is perfect for ORH...which we know it isn’t. But occasionally there will be one that is great that hugs the coast in MA (like Dec 1996 or even 12/9/05) that slams ORH to S NH. The tilt matters a lot. Vday 2007 had the sfc low over ACK but it jackpotted E NY and VT because the mid level centers were tilted quite a bit NW. Xmas 2005 had the sfc low over interior E MA but it jackpotted CAR to north of YUL and had mostly rain in N VT because that midlevel centers were initially flooding warm air pretty far north before tightening up over ORH to PWM...but by then it was too late to really take advantage unless you were in Canada to far N Maine. Sometimes we get storms that get a large area of New England. We always mention dec 2003 but there’s also March 2001, February 1969, or even February 1978 (although Stowe prob got screwed in that while phineas and Alex got 30”+ and even Kmart cleaned up)

It’s because the “drought” isn’t a big deal up here. It’s rained plenty in the pike region the last month. Doesn’t take much to wipe out a D1 scenario here. This is nothing like the 1960s droughts because those were longer term. Several very dry years in a row.

A low tracking over ORH is a shit track for just about all of New England outside of like N Maine. Maybe N VT does good depending on how tilted it is and in a few rare cases if the storm is really tightly wound, the Berkshires or taconics might do ok.

2005-2006 was pretty cruddy, though some areas of SNE did pretty well, esp in CT....NNE not so much. I wouldn't hate that winter, but not exactly routing for it. 1985-1986 was pretty crappy too for a good chunk of New England...parts of NNE...esp VT...did well that winter, but a lot of cold/rainer/cold/rainer type pattern that year. I think we'd take almost any other winter on there....maybe not 1974-1975....esp coastal SNE, though the interior did ok.

Yeah he isn't north of BOS...he's pretty close to me....our area got smoked in the convection 10 days ago that trained.

This year is pretty much at the bottom of the solar cycle too....so if we try and filter for that amongst our remaining years, you get 1974-1975 and 2017-2018 which wasn't at the bottom but both were descending pretty close to it. Other near-solar min winters were 2008-2009, 1995-1996, and 1985-1986. Again, not much similarity between any of those.

Weak La Nina is probably the most likely...followed by cold-neutral...Going back to 1970: 2017-2018 (weak Nina) 2016-2017 (weak Nina) 2013-2014 (cold neutral) 2008-2009 (weak Nina) 2005-2006 (weak Nina) 2000-2001 (weak Nina) 1996-1997 (cold neutral) 1995-1996 (weak Nina) 1985-1986 (cold neutral) 1983-1984 (weak Nina) 1974-1975 (weak Nina) 1971-1972 (weak Nina) It seems this year is trying to trend more toward -PDO which we have had trouble attaining in recent years after the extremely deep -PDO years from 2007-2013. Don't get me wrong, this year is not like the deep -PDO years such as 2008-2009, however, it doesn't look like the 2013-2014, 1995-1996, or 1980s type years either. Could be something in-between more like 2017-2018, 2005-2006, or 2000-2001...or 1974-1975 where we had mildly -PDOs that maybe briefly popped neutral or positive for a month or so.

I wouldn't totally hate it....sucked for snowpack after New Years, but at least it had several good snow events and a couple storms >12"....finished around average snowfall.

There was a crazy gradient there...probably 15"+ about 6-7 miles south of where you are now.

Nice front range snowstorm next week down the entire length of the rockies, lol. Starts in Canada/Montana and goes right down into New Mexico.

Tribal instincts eventually infect everything. It's gotten worse over the past couple decades with the advent of biased cable news channels and internet forums/social media where everyone can retreat to their own echo chambers. It's becoming like that in where people choose to live as well. The less contact we have with people who are not exactly like us, the more we dehumanize those other people in our minds....and that's the fastest way to rationalize atrocious behavior toward other people....you view them as an evil non-human enemy....tribalism is strong.

Back broken dude....above average in September is pretty meh, esp after the first week of the month...you need a special pattern to really bring the bite of summer back. I actually said I expect a lot of above average days in the first half of the month but sell the 90s except maybe for a brief day at the tarmacs. But bring it on...I don't want cold in Sept/Oct except maybe one hard freeze in early Oct to kill the yellow jackets. Otherwise, give me the 70s/80s.

AEEKT

Once you get into the interior of the tug hill, it really goes bonkers with the snowpack...assisted by some CAD there that you don’t get further west and of course there’s extra moisture too further into the tug hill from both LES and synoptic systems. I’ve seen bare ground around Hastings or Parish after a bad thaw but there’s still 3 feet OTG once near Barnes Corners.

My wife belongs to most of the community groups around here...and they seem mostly fine and I can get why you'd want to use them for community info. But there have been some occasional vile fights on there. The one skivt2 is part of at Killington seems especially toxic though...there's gotta be another source of community info around there so you don't have to be subjected to those morons.

Skivt2 just threw her computer out the window.

Commercial real estate is a blood bath right now...I would bet dollars to donuts that's where a ton of the construction job losses are at.

Employment rate of younger adults/teens has steadily declined since peaking in the 1980s. Back then, ages 16-24 employment rate was 60%...it hovered around 58% in the 1990s and in the 2010s it's been consistently below 50% until 2017 when it finally made it back over 50% until the pandemic put a screeching halt to that trend.

Yeah the full fallout hasn't happened yet. That probably won't be felt completely until sometime next year. My guess is Q1/Q2 2021.

They still wouldn’t have broken the record i don’t think but I agree their sensor seems to be running about a degree too cold or slightly less than that. They probably are around #3 or #4 in reality.

Yeah the big amounts in Maine were all confined to the immediate coast enhanced by a CF. The larger synoptic snows were a bust...except once you got way out east in DE Maine.

Some networks backed down to like 3-5" for BOS the night prior to VD 2015. They finished with 16". That storm was a disaster on the model guidance in terms of QPF....it actually did pretty well on most of the mid-level features. We often call that storm the "Mid-level Magic Storm" because I remember we remained very bullish on that one given the non-QPF parameters. Harvey Leonard stuck to his guns pretty well in that one too despite models reducing QPF almost every run the final 24-36 hours and shoving it all up in Maine on a weird-looking WCB type frontal setup....which is what prompted the big forecasts there.

Yes.

1/27/11 was almost a whiff for SNE and some areas were in the 1-2" forecast zone which had to be rapidly changed to warning criteria.

That was the March 2013 "fire hose" storm. March 7-8, 2013....yeah, I ended up with almost 23" in that in ORH on a forecast of 4-8" or 8-12" dependng on who you looked at. NWS BOX was more aggressive than the TV mets on that one.