ORH_wxman

2020 is up to 5 now....

Looking further ahead, the 2nd half of October looks like there will be some cold shots and that is perhaps the first threat for snow in New England outside of the mountain tops. This is the kind of pattern that could produce something in the typical favored early season spots.

The ETA model was the predecessor to the NAM....they actually renamed it the NAM while it was still the ETA, but the NAM became based off of the WRF model when they discontinued the ETA in 2006-2007 season. The ETA could run hot and cold. Sometimes it just knocked events out of the park...12/9/05 was one. Jan 2005 blizzard too. However, it had some epic epic failures too including 12/30/00 and it was putrid in the Feb 2006 storm. But overall it was a solid model and it had some fairly consistent biases that you could play off of as a forecaster.

I flew into Montrose back in Jan 2016 when I did Telluride. Small airport but it was super easy getting your stuff and getting out of there. I remember one of the old posters on the now-defunct epicski forum had snowfall totals by year for each resort and there was surprisingly less reliance on El Niño in Telluride than I would have first thought. I expected it to be more like AZ Snowbowl or Taos. El Niño is def best there but they have gotten smoked in many La Ninas too...they got destroyed in ‘07-‘08 and did very well in ‘08-‘09 and ‘16-‘17.

Once you are outside of the elevated interior in SNE, the winters are not going to be wire to wire in terms of pack retention. It just doesn’t happen. Maybe once every couple of decades. So for “good winters”, it’s either a 3-4 week blitz like 2011/2015/2009/1994/1987/1978/etc or it’s a longer drawn out winter with events in every month but some thaws in between. Winters like ‘00-‘01, ‘02-‘03, ‘04-‘05, ‘13-‘14, ‘17-‘18, ‘81-‘82, ‘69-‘70, ‘71-‘72 Sometimes you get lucky and get both in the same winter like 1995-1996. That had a 4-5 week blitz, massive thaws but events in Feb/Mar/Apr as well. Or even ‘60-‘61.

I think we can still use past climate to determine how likely a future event is...especially if we have pretty good knowledge of how the ambient environment has changed. So for example, we know there has been a 7% increase in water vapor with about a 1C increase in temps, so we can adjust the precip accordingly. Ditto for things like a heat wave or cold wave. Now, obviously for really rare one-off events like the '38 hurricane, October 2011 snowstorm, etc....it becomes a little harder to quantify return frequencies in a current world vs the past. Even using 30 year snowfall averages....they do change, but it's remarkably consistent when you think about it. They might change by 20% at most for a place like BOS? And BOS aleady is a fairly "high-variance" snowfall location. Lowest I've seen BOS is like 40" and the highest is like 48" for a rolling 30 year avg.

It's exactly 250% if we use 44" as the baseline (though the '91-'20 mean might be closer to 46")

That might be true....though I’m skeptical of the claim on the easterlies since they were pretty dormant until summer after our weak El Niño broke in the spring. Maybe there’s some mild enhancement? But I don’t think it is anything like a primary driver. As for the impact...muted or not muted, they are still going to be larger on a moderate or strong la Niña vs a weak one...so it’s worth pointing out the strengthening event. We aren’t currently in a deep -PDO either like the 2007-2012 years so that will probably have at least some impact as well. To what extent? Anyone else’s guess is probably better than mine. Its hard to quantify the sensible impacts. We’ve had La Ninas that acted like El Niño’s before....ala 1995-1996. Hell, that season even had some bouts of STJ. And then we’ve had El Niños that acted like La Niña too...see 1968-1969. Who knows if the deeper phase PDO had an effect or not...I’m sure it wasn’t the only reason but you wonder since each respective season had an “out of phase” PDO look. My biggest personal question is how far poleward does the Aleutian ridge get? La Niña almost always has an Aleutian ridge and how far poleward it gets can be a large factor.

A lot of it will depend on the AO/NAO I think....esp the further south you go. Recall that 2010-2011 was a strong La Nina that peaked at -1.7C trimonthly. That is probably the gold standard for winters down in your 'hood over the past 2+ decades....so it can be good if it gets help. A potent La Nina can have a very active PJ, so if you get a little bit of blocking, it can produce a ton of miller Bs and other fun systems that go south of SNE. Obviously we want to avoid an AK pig too...if we don't avoid that, then it's game over for all of us.

This La Nina is really starting to crank. ECMWF really increased the peak of the Nina....a lot of members in the -1.5C or stronger range now. Hardly any were there in the Sept forecast...and pretty much all of them save for a couple are -1C or stronger. Easterlies look like they will only pick up as well. Waiting for the CPC T-depth anomaly to update (should be any day now)....but even the 9/30 readings were impressive. This signals a moderate basin-wide La Nina.

Well '17-'18 was pretty damned good. (96" at ORH and 60" at BOS)...and actually 2016-2017 was above avg too, just less so than 2017-2018. I think BOS was 50ish and ORH 80ish. No doubt the last two winters have sucked though for SNE...as well as the one immediately following '14-'15.

Actually looks like PYM gusted to 52 knots too.

I would say at least 9...PSF did too. The list ginxy posted said 53mph but I see a peak gust of 52 knots (60mph)

Yeah it was. There was 50 knots back up by SYR

YEah pretty much every ASOS between ALB and BOS reported >50 knots. ALB, PSF, BAF, CEF, ORH, BOS...and even that pit in OWD gusted to 50 knots. This was legit.

Wow. We just got absolutely smoked. Some huge branches down in neighbors. Def severe gusts. We lost power too.

I think it was 2014-2015 when the Euro seasonal and EuroSIPS were showing this monster EPO ridge....huge positive height anomaly over AK and the Yukon Territory, basically the perfect cold-loading location for central Canada and the northern CONUS.....and it had 2m temps torched....maybe one small area of near normal or something. I remember Scott and I making fun of it. Moral of the story was the 2m temps don't always reflect the upper air forecast. We still haven't figured out why it struggles so much with that. We were joking there was a climate change parameter in there that just paints everything red.

FWIW, I think Canada (and prob northern tier of CONUS) is way too warm on that 2m map if the H5 anomaly verifies.

Yeah you hit the huge March hard too. LR is tough to nail obviously. If you can get it pretty accurate about 60% of the time, you'll be doing very well.

To be fair, it shows warm 2m temps over us....though I agree I woudn't be scared of that H5 look. But he's pretty far south in CT...that would def be a latitude look, so there's reason to like it less the further south you are. Esp with that low height anomaly on the southern tip of Greenland and into Davis straight like 2007-2008.

Yeah the obscene torch February and then the obscene March blocking episode are unlikely to repeat. It would be cool to see the single months but that site doesn't show them.

Actually looks pretty similar to 2017-2018

2018-2019 was the first winter since 2007-2008 that didn't have a double digit storm at ORH. They only got 9.6" in the 3/4/19 storm. Pretty impressive streak of 10 winters. Of course last year they had 17" in the early December storm. They escaped 2011-2012 too because of the October storm.