ORH_wxman

That's quite a punch the PV is taking at the end of the 12z EPS....didn't show that on the 00z run. We'll have to see if that is a trend that sticks. Would probably mean colder wx down the line in November vs previous forecasts.

You must've gotten hammered in the 2/25/11 event....also 4/1/11.

The Oct 2002 and 2003 snows both happened on the 23rd coincidentally.

Yeah it's way out there, but there's some potential for somethign wintry around 10/30-10/31....low probability of course this time of the year, but there's some very cold ar lurking and a good high is present on most current guidance. Fwiw, the Euro OP cuts the system to our west, so anything is possible at this range.

I mean, I do have Groveland around 80" on my map, but you are closer to 90" on the map. They should be expected to get a little less than you anyway.

Sounds a little low to me. But not too far off. I'd prob put you closer to mid/high 80s that winter, or possibly even cracking 90" if you are being a weenie about every squall. As we know, if the coop isn't a very meticulous snow observer, then it could easily be on the low side even if they are still following the minimal guidelines. Also you are west of them so you were prob on the W side of the CF in some events where they weren't.

I wasn't the one conveying certainty, you were. It could be a ratter, but I was asking where you got the extreme confidence form that it would be.

Gradient was a tad south in '70-'71....I think BDL had 57" that winter so he probably had in the low to mid 60s in Tolland.

Yep, all 3 were true in 2010-2011.

54.5" according to my map.

He's probably secretly terrified of an '07-'08 where Ray gets like 100" and he has 50". So he's trying to make the entire region a rat.....misery loves company as the old saying goes. But honestly, this could be good for everyone too. I don't see anything definitive at the moment....which is normal in late October.

How do you know it't going to be below normal snowfall?

Area is more accurate if you want to know the precise value of surface that is covered with ice. Extent is better for things like shipping...if a region is covered with 40% ice concentration, you probably don't want to try going through it without an ice breaker. That region would be considered "covered in ice extent" even though there is open water mixed in. Area would give us a lower value because it's only 40% ice.

Lol....I usually wonder why I wasted the 5 minutes doing that instead of something more productive.

I barely look at the Euro weeklies....I can't remember the last time I looked at the CFS weeklies. I may have done it a couple times last winter.

Posted in the other thread that late November looked colder on the weeklies with western ridging....but it's week 6. Almost no skill. It does look like we warm up after the colder wx in the first few days of November.

Late November looked colder with western ridging on the weeklies....but I don't have to tell you that week 6 has almost no skill.

Moderate Nina....looks like we will continue to see the colder subsurface rise to the surface in central and eastern areas with the easterly wind bursts continuing.

Yeah Nobscot Hill is over 600 feet. Most people prob dont think anywhere in Framingham gets that high, lol.

Is that taken from nobscot hill?

For sure. One of the reasons we go to western ME so much is it’s off the beaten path somewhat. We love that vibe more than the touristy feel. I do love North Conway’s views and they have a nice restaurant scene for when we want to do that kind of thing, but we don’t want a full week of it when vacationing. So we stay 30 minutes east. And yeah, Berlin could use your dollars any time, not just during covid, LOL.

Unfortunately without the good bourbon.

LOL...I remember seeing that movie in theaters as a teenager. Anyways, I’d go into Maine before VT if I was where phin is. That western part of Maine has a very northern NH vibe as it is.

Seems like there’s no enforcement. But they could always go the RI route and start pulling cars over....but they got a ton of backlash for that and eventually stopped, so it seems unlikely other areas will start doing it. But there’s a critical difference between winter and summer. Bigger chance of spreading in the winter when people are forced indoors more. Now you wouldn’t expect it at ski resorts too much as long as they are limiting lodge capacity, but we don’t know how other places will be affected. You get a couple stories of out-of-State skiers spreading the virus in a restaurant or something, all of the sudden you could see strict enforcement measures.

LOL I love the sun angle and warm ground myths.