ORH_wxman

It's quickly collapsing SE at that point...prob changes most of SNE over to snow quickly after that frame. The detailed maps are not out yet on pivotal though so I can't see it. But even a pretty far west amped solution is going to produce some snow. We want the happy medium of amped, but not obscenely tucked west, which I'm less afraid of in this super fast pattern than I am of something hideously sheered.

The strong anti-cyclonic flow over Maine and Quebec at H85 is a good giveaway too. That is just rushing into the deepening ML center on that type of setup. Here's the next frame in case you didn't already get the idea

GGEM kind of shows what I was just discussing with Ginx and Scott. You can see the southern stream bowling ball gets more involved with the northenr stream here and by the time that happens, take a look a H85....it's over...the outcome is cemented from that point. Everything collapses SE. Thats close to what you are looking for in a snowier solution. Maybe even more wrapped up as it goes south of us, but that is the idea.

I thought rain was implied given the month....but yeah. Rain is still the most likely ptype of many.

Yeah it feels counter-intuitive at first glance to want the ULL more amped for better snow in SNE, but I think that would produce more snow ultimately than a flatter solution. Yeah, it might initially shove the precip pretty far N and NW, but as it gets squeezed, you'd see the R/S line collapse very quickly SE and probably produce a really intense area of frontogenesis over SNE before it exits.

I changed the title of the thread to make it a little clearer....I moved Ray's joke to the subtitle, lol.

Look at how cold the GFS is in the latter part of the storm. That's like -5C at 900mb.

Just like winter snow climo sans October snow.

Measurable ORH October snowfall and the subsequent winter total

Tip, I moved your post to the storm thread (that was just created)

This thing really gets the squeeze play put on it as it tries to exit stage-right....the bowling ball getting pinched by the northern shortwave matters because as this happens, it's going to want to produce some crazy frontogenesis. So we'll have to keep an eye on that if it's still looking similar as we get closer. That's why some solutions produce these really intense bands of snow for a few hours. They are ML fronto bands.

Ironically the system before 10/29/11 was also a transition rain to snow event on 10/27/11....we had about 2-3" in ORH. This looks juicier and higher ceiling though. Esp for interior elevated areas in CNE.

That airmass is legit, if the system taps into that on the backside, then it's going to snow right to the coast. It's a needle-threader for sure though....you're trying to time the shortwave so that the CCB is over the region while the high is building in. Most guidance actually shows this so there's decent agreement. It's just a precarious setup and they could lose it.

The last one got way too political. We tried it for months and it eventually got worse and worse. People couldn’t behave themselves so it stays off the wx side. Ya’ll can go discuss it on Ampol or somewhere else. I’m not a fan of censorship but this is a wx forum and we’ve always been strict about keeping politics off the wx side. The covid thread was an exception...and then it ultimately proved why we keep politics out of here.

Yeah I missed this one. But your idea reminds me of the days we did radio shows. We usually only do them for KU type threats for the mid-Atlantic but we could totally utilize zoom for some bigger New England-centric threats.

This thread is becoming too covid-centric. We got rid of the other one for a reason.

Ray try this. I think it has ukmet on there (MetOffice) https://climate.copernicus.eu/charts/c3s_seasonal/ There’s an “NCEP” option. Not sure if that is the CFS or not. Probably is since I’m not aware of another domestic seasonal model.

Yeah...great find by radarman and interesting paper but it was definitely 1994. I do remember that 1999 event...starting off absolutely frigid and then going to 50+. Almost like a different January 1994 event where we were snowing and like 7F and then 10 hours later we were 50-55F with steaming snow banks before the front put the deep freeze back on everyone later that night. I actually think you’ve mentioned that storm before Tip when you were up at Lowell.

There was actually a paper published on the January ‘94 storm that dropped the OES with sleet. It was back when Weymouth Naval Air Station still existed with obs (code KNZW I recall)...they were reporting heavy snow with sleet and under quarter mile vis. Almost the snow production was between 975-875 millibars with a max cold layer around -13C...with a thin elevated warm layer around 750mb. Wish I could find the paper. Perfect heavy snow dendrites from OES while the synoptic stuff was producing pingers. Hilarious.

The largest percent positive spike has occurred amongst the age 5-17 group in the past few weeks. So I wouldn’t be surprised if CFR is even a little lower than the summer peak....hopefully that is the case.

There’s always exceptions to the rule but you’d rather not have one. Btw i wouldn’t classify Nov 1993 as a pig month. Def huge +AO but it had ridging approaching the EPO region.

Nov 2010 def had a November pig, it was kind of an exception to the Nov pig rule. But I do recall vividly that the vortex was forecasted to break down mid-month...it ended up lasting closer to thanksgiving but it did break down before the month was over, so it never looked very bleak.

Alyeska ski area averages like 700” but they aren’t nearly in the highest spot or probably even the best spot. I’d guess there’s probably locations there that average well over 1000 inches per year but there’s nobody to record it. You’d probably die from avalanches being near those spots, lol.

Where the hell is that? Maybe the Chugash mountains or something in Alaska?

You don’t want the AK pig in mid to late November. It’s ok if it’s in the first half of month and transient. If that GEFS pattern is what we have through late month, then it’s very worrisome. Judah is right though that the EPS isn’t all that bad. It actually has a -WPO pattern.