ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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18z euro looks decent for 1-3” in a lot of SNE. Pretty similar to 12z though the fronto stuff might be even a hair better.
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All 18z runs thus far have trended better. Another tick and maybe a few spots could see low end advisory snows. As is, even just light measurable is impressive in October outside of NNE higher elevations.
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Def a nice little backside CCB/Fronto snow band for SNE this run.
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18z NAM looks more amplified through 21 hours vs 12z...we'll see if that translates to the 2nd part too.
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Lol https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/53899-november-2020-discussion/page/2/#comments
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I was just thinking the same thing...."Euro/NAM are most aggressive....getting nostalgic all of the sudden".
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Some decent fronto snows this run for SNE....nothing huge, but probably a lot of folks seeing 1-2".
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12z Euro improving some verss the 06z run.
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Yeah we need the southern piece to come back a little stronger. I wouldn't toss the towel in yet on some light accumulations, but it seems less and less likely we're not going to get the higher end potential which could have been low end warning snowfall for a chunk of the interior.
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UKMET quite a bit uglier than 00z....still tries for some light accumulations over interior SNE/CNE, but nothing like the widespread advisory snows that 00z had.
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Yeah part 2 was the source of most of the snow in all the previous runs....there's a little bit of part 1 snow way up north on more recent runs, but we really want part 2 to crank to give some legit heavy snow....that CAA you talk about also enhances the frontogensis which would drive that heavier snow.
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Yeah that's where their snow will come from....unlike a couple days ago when they were getting the heavy stuff from part 2 on some of those runs. Part 2 is getting shredded and if it produces, it will likely only be for SNE and maybe southern CNE.
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RGEM was maybe marginally better than 06z, not the more noticeable jump that the NAM had. Maybe an inch or so for elevated interior SNE....2-4/3-5 for areas like Mitch/N Berks.
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No, it would start off pretty wet even if it does cool to the upper 20s. But it might not ever get that cold either. You might only make it to like 31 or so....assuming we even have a period of steady snow.
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Yeah there might be, esp in higher terrain. I could see ORH county having some flash freeze issues if we have steady snow and 28-30F.
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Super cold stuff Friday morning...it has temps in the upper 20s here at 15z Friday...so even steady light snow is going to stick in that scenario.
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The southern bowling ball was not as shredded this run as it gained latitude....so definitely an improvement, even if the overall result is still meh. Looks like an inch or two for many though over the interior.
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Yeah this one was always a bit precarious with the potential to get shredded. I had replied to Ray two days ago that I was more concerned with that than a zonked system trying to run into the Hudson Valley. That said, this could easily come back enough to produce some significant winter sensible wx conditions. We'll just have to see if the ULL can gain some latitude without getting shredded too quickly. Obviously yesterday's guidance was allowing this more than overnight.
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FYI, the NAO turned strongly negative in the last 10 days of Nov 2010 and then broke during the 1/12/11 storm. We sustained another 3 weeks of winter after that with a largely favorable Pacific. The NAO did form another weakish block for about a week leading into the 1/26-27/11 event and then broke positive for good IIRC.
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Those 6z runs were ugly....we're gonna need a bounce back on 12z or it's probably not much snow out of this one.
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This one was more like 3.5-4 days out. Ray started it Monday morning (though we added previous posts to it from the main October thread so it looks like it was started on Sunday) Anyways. This is still a threat for a few inches.
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Yeah you get prob 4 or 5 inches this run.
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CCB/fronto stuff looks a little more robust. Still not quite what I’d want to see for widespread amounts over 5”, but a good trend. Just need that southern stream vortmax/shortwave to maintain a hair longer. It did better on this run, but we want to see that cyclonic curl in the shortwave when it is at about the latitude of ACK or thereabouts.
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18z euro coming in a little more amped than 12z.
