ORH_wxman

Isn't this essentially what places like the Hermitage Club already are? Country club setting for a ski resort. Out west, you get even bigger/more exclusive ones like Yellowstone Club. I'd hope that there are enough survivors post-covid to keep prices reasonable.

There's plenty of debate to be had on lockdown severity and the pros/cons of it....but this isn't the thread for discussing general lockdown policy....we all know where most everyone stands on it and it always goes around in circles. I think it's fine to discuss local covid-related issues in here (i.e. what our local schools are doing, local ski areas, etc, etc) but when we start going back to generalizations and policy theory/discussion, it inevitably just turns into a political discussion.

2020, the year skiing went from a middle class/upper middle class hobby to a silver spoon hobby.

This pattern definitely looks a bit like a roller coaster....Sunday could be pretty mild, esp if we get some sunshine. 60+ not out of the question? Then we go pretty damned cold for several days following with a good possibility of flurries or snow showers around on Tuesday and Tuesday night/Wed morning could be our coldest night yet. The pattern beyond that though looks interesting...it's showing up as pretty blocky but also a tendency for western troughing, so those will be opposing forces for our corner of the CONUS. Yeah at least they looked good....they aren't worth much that far out, but that was a flip from earlier runs. I'm starting to be intrigued by the blockier look on a lot of runs for the D8-12 range. That is a good sign because it wasn't that long ago that those days looked kind of ugly on guidance. So I'm hoping that it means there is a tendency to not allow an AK vortex to set up shop for any amount of time. Also, historically, it is good to have blocking in November. I know it doesn't work all the time (see last 2 years), but you'd rather have it than a death vortex for sure.

I'm hoping this will cause more people to go to some of the smaller mountains. Some of those places are nearly empty during week days, but perhaps they can pick up some extra business because larger resorts are capped. Hopefully that helps offset at least some of the losses they are going to have on the weekend.

I think many could see flakes on Tuesday....as the trough axis moves underneath us. Not a big deal but some snow showers around. Prob some minor accumulations in the usual mountain spots (Berks up to Greens and Whites)

The lodging aspect will be tough...lodging = “ski lodge” in this case. Those things usually get packed for lunch but they can’t do that this winter. I’m sure some will be trying to spread the crowds outdoors but that’s only going to go so far....we all know about those days on the mountain where the high is like 5F. But yeah, the actual skiing part is about as safe an activity as you can do. Outdoors and many people already have face coverings anyway.

I said it in the skiing thread a while back but I’m going to wait out the first few weeks and see how the ski mountains operate. Not that I usually ski on icy ribbons of death anyway in early December.... If we have a fast start though with a lot of natural snow then it will be tempting.

My wife tutors on the side and this year has been obscene...she’s having to turn down prospective clients left and right because her schedule is already too full. She’s never had this many people requesting tutoring sessions. The sessions actually work pretty well over zoom when you hook up the iPad to the laptop and use it as a “virtual paper” to write on. She got the pen for it and everything and it works like a charm. I was skeptical beforehand asking her how she would tutor virtually, but it’s been easy peasy. But yeah....business is booming in the personal tutoring world.

Yeah for some districts it’s going to be brutal. Luckily, my wife’s district was 1 to 1 (chrome books) even before covid so they didn’t have to invest in the technology. But for places that needed to invest, that’s a massive hole blown in the budget. The school administrations have shown to be conniving dipsh*ts for the most part. They are not afraid at all to throw teachers under the bus to cover for their incompetence in planning or delegating resources to this. It has made morale lower amongst the teachers which is exactly what you don’t want to be doing when their workload is drastically increased. I already didn’t have a high opinion of school administrators before this....

Most teachers are frustrated (my wife included) because they feel like the schools are not getting much additional help at all despite the increased stress on the infrastructure and scheduling. The school admin in a lot of districts have been very tone deaf and not accommodating.

10 day OP map.....caveats apply...but that isn't a bad look at all in winter. PV on the Asian side of the hemisphere but that is plenty serviceable. For November winter wx events, you probably want more PV involvement since you are fighting climo a little harder this time of the year for snow. But having that kind of blocking up in AK and the Yukon is good and would work in December.

Work from home FTW....company-issued laptop with remote sign-in for work, personal laptop sitting on the other part of my desk for weather posting.

Yeah I was semi-patronizing him if that wasn't clear enough. I think it's no secret that our subforum has always been pretty lenient and laid back about the posting content, but it doesn't mean we draw no lines. We gave the covid thread an obscenely long leash....it didn't work out.

You're welcome. Let them know there's other forms of censorship on here too...like making sure we delete porn (you preferred to call the cops in that instance I think).

Not allowing political discussion? Yes, it is definitely a form of censorship.

Yeah I wasn't trying to speak in absolutes....but there is a high degree of correlation with an AK vortex in the 2nd half of November and a crap winter. There's been exceptions....2010-2011 was one of them actually. The vortex started breaking down at the very end of the month though and it was clear on guidance for a while. We;ll see about this year...I've seen it pop on guidance several times recently only to be eliminated as we get closer to verification. Maybe this is a case of "delayed but not denied" or maybe it just never really happens. Or maybe it happens but it is not a new paradigm, but merely a transient feature for 7-10 days.

Nah, no worries....it wasn't directed at you in particular. But if you were in the previous covid thread that ran for a few months in spring and early summer, you'll notice a parallel. It's the same posters butting heads on the merits of lockdowns vs no lockdowns. Nobody is going to change their mind...and then it eventually creeps more and more political as the discussion veers to the motive of such posts rather than the posts themselves....round and round we go. The end result? Nobody changes their mind and the forum becomes more uncivil. This is why we've always had a strict "no politics" rule on the wx side....covid blurred the line. But after giving it a legit shot for months on end and even more recently to a lighter degree in this thread, it's pretty clear the arc always bends back toward the political side on this topic.

The covid discussion has a lot of interesting points, but it can't stay apolitical. I was out yesterday and catching up up just now, the convo is creeping political again. It's not too uncivil (yet), but it always eventually gets back to the same talking points. Nobody is going to change their mind RE: lockdowns from this discussion which is why I don't see the point in continuing it.

If the AK piggy locks in for late month, it's definitely concerning. We haven't seen it happen yet though and the next week or so actually features a lot of ridging up there.

Seems like there’s still a lot of sentiment for anything but a huge winter. Some are going decent and others going below average and others going full-on ratter.

Yeah I’m basically just waiting to see if they do license plate hunting or not.

Yeah it’s been trending a lot colder in the past couple days. Prob some more upslope up north too as it looks like a bit of cyclonic flow around a low in Quebec. That part could change though.

Yeah the school thing is weird after saying we can’t go outside and jog without a mask on. Now you want to send kids all into school where they cannot socially distance? Well, either it’s so serious that people can’t go into a park without their mask on, or it’s not so bad that we can stuff 30 kids into a classroom 2-3 feet apart from each other. Which one is it? We’ll see how much enforcement happens once ski season starts. If it’s virtually zero then I stay may go to Magic. It’s not hard at all for me to go by myself and not have to ever go inside. Eat lunch in the car or whatever.

Bummer, I was gonna try and hit Magic this winter. Probably not happening now. Day trip to NH on the menu.