ORH_wxman

As we get inside 6 days, the changes will matter more. They are more likely to be correct and not just stochastic variance so that’s why we want to see the deeper solutions returning pretty quick during the next couple of cycles. When we’re 180-200 hours out, the run to run changes mean very little. By the time we’re like 120-132 hours out, any significant moves are more likely to reflect reality.

Yeah it’s absolutely embarrassing the state of our old obs archives. It’s literally a bunch of text and we have trouble getting it. Does this site have them? They have a bunch of stuff but not sure if they have hourly METARs…maybe someone with more patience and time that’s I have today can search it https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/list.phtml I used to grab old AFDs from here

It trended the wrong way though which is concerning. Want to see more amplification on todays runs or the ceiling on this threat will be quite a bit lower. I’ll still take any snow, but the higher end potential is gone if you aren’t digging that shortwave down into the southern midatlantic.

06z euro looks more like GFS. Clipper type system but you’re pretty close to redeveloping that for something bigger. We need to trend this back toward digging the initial shortwave deeper and that’s how you get a higher end system

Classic….KNZW Infamous for the heavy snow from OES and sleet from synoptic precip in one of the Jan ‘94 storms.

Yeah ensembles slightly better than 12z. Hopefully we start seeing some more consensus in the next day or two.

Ensembles continue to show a pretty significant warmup between Xmas and New Years. Weeklies continue to show a rapid reload to a much colder pattern in January lasting most of the month. I’ll believe it when I see it but I do believe the reload part is real. You can see the very beginning of it at the end of the regular EPS run.

Yeah agreed. The more amplified solutions are all bombing this thing out into the 980s (and even 970s on the next frame…a couple of them due east of BOS.) I think this definitely speaks to the “higher end potential” was I just talking about to Mark. If this amplifies enough to hit us, it’s likely to be a pretty strong system. Hopefully not too strong and too far west…lol.

No that’s just one member. I posted the mean at 168 below his post.

EPS has been speeding up the second wave a bit more because it’s weaker on the first wave than a lot of other guidance. Esp the GFS suite which is slower. But regardless of whether it’s the 21st or the 22nd, we’d rather have the second wave be the main player because it has a deeper cold airmass in place and also a more poleward PNA ridge so it has higher end potential from a pure cyclogensis standpoint. The ceiling on the first wave is a lot lower.

Here’s 168. Again, can’t really ask for a lot more on a D7 prog.

Ukie looks decent at 144 too. Might want it slightly more amped but very nice look overall synoptically. Ukie always seems to either come in flatter or crazy amped in the medium range

Definite positive trends at 12z. What I wanted to see. Amplifying the 21st-22nd wave behind the first one is the ideal solution because we have a legit antecedent airmass in place. None of this garbage-0C-at-925mb crap at the onset.

GGEM looks really threatening at 144. Much more poleward ridge.

GFS too squashed this run. But not the worst spot for a week out.

06z eps only goes to 144 on this but this is a bit faster secondary development than 00z

That look would def favor eastern areas. But too far out to get that granular. It could be tracking over Scooter’s head a few days from now. Signal for a storm is there at least. Hopefully that first shortwave continues to be deemphasized which will put more focus on the 12/22 system.

EPS def still has a solid look for next weekend. Pretty classic Miller B look actually. The worry on that depiction is it gets going a little too late…esp for southwest areas, but if you dig that trough just a bit more then it’s moot.

First wave is too close to the second on the euro. Second isn’t able to tap into baroclinicity so it doesn’t produce anything. First wave does produce advisory snows over the interior though…but it’s a typical elevation slop event. If we can increase the wave spacing, then that second one would prob produce a nice little event…redevelop type. But this is parsing details at D6-8 so there’s really no use expending too much energy…but it’s something we’ll want to watch for.

Canadian tries for the 12/22 system too but comes in a bit shallower with the shortwave so it’s like a clipper/redeveloper south of New England. Lot of moving parts between 12/19-12/22.

The ridge spike around 12/22 is really strong. I feel like that is the one with the higher end potential.

I’m not even that worried about the few days after Xmas…if it ends up milder, so be it but there’s strong evidence the Aleutian low retrogrades southwest so we’d see a rebuilding of the western ridge beyond that. I’m also a little skeptical at the degree of breakdown in the first place. Guidance has been underestimating the amplitude of the ridge when we have an Aleutian low so far this month. Been a lot of volatility in the extended range these last two weeks. That’s one reason I’d also pump the brakes on the pre-Xmas storm analysis. Prob gonna see more changes on that as guidance tries to figure out the ridge amplitude and shortwaves.

May have to watch for a burst of snow on Monday with that lead shortwave. Still enough antecedent cold around on a lot of these solutions.

Always get a good laugh from this thread in the mornings.

Yeah there was no big storm on Xmas eve in 1993. But there were snow showers. We actually salvaged a white Cmas that year in ORH because of that. We got about an inch of snow with the snow showers after the 12/21/93 grinch storm had wiped out our snow pack. I don’t recall any Xmas eve storms in the 1990s except 1998 which was strictly a SE MA storm. We had nothing in ORH. Obviously 12/23/97 was close…day before Xmas eve.