ORH_wxman

Yeah the weekend threat is becoming more and more coherent on model guidance. Looks colder than the mid-week threat but still plenty of ptype issue. Might be a longer period of sleet/ice after an initial thump. But we’ll see how that trends over the next day or two.

2” in Holliston. Looks nice covering the surviving old snow.

Interestingly right after I say that, snow growth improved a lot. Prob like 50/50 on dendrites now. Looks awesome in the lights.

Really coming down but not great snow growth. It’s like heavy dandruff with an occasional dendrite mixed in. Looks like a white fog outside.

A couple of decent bands already..one going from ORH county to NE CT and another in the CT river valley

Yep. My back porch is “3 season” except when I make it 4 seasons with the Woodstove. It’s nice though because that wood stove helps heat the rest of the house too when I have it going strong so the furnace gets a bit of a breather. Keep the nat gas bill down. Thinking 1-3” here. I expect any lollis to 4 to be further west and southwest of us.

Yeah it did. I’d like to see another tick but it did give a couple of inches on the front. This isn’t a very juicy system anyway though, so I’m mostly hoping we can get a few inches and triple point the sfc low so we get a net gain. I’m not setting the bar very high on this one. But there’s def a model war. GFS doesn’t even come close to sniffing freezing over interior…even where the snow flips to sleet/ZR.

Yeah looked a bit colder. Not buying it verbatim but maybe we can tick euro a little colder and at least get a bit of snow on the front end.

Weenie flakes here for the past 10-15 min. Really tiny. Almost didn’t notice them until I was outside getting firewood and saw them very diffuse in the spotlight.

It actually has our side strengthening after the split happens. That said, I don’t necessarily need -30C 850s over our noggin.

@CoastalWx 192h now…almost inside a week now.

Euro looks like it had a little jackpot near Kevin…maybe just east

OP Euro is much colder next weekend than 00z as well…nice thump in front end with the classic bent back ML WF

Anyone who has tracked these types of events for more than a few years should know what the deal is. It’s on them if they think it’s going to be 2015.

They can also trend colder too when you have these type of airmasses in place and a high trying to hold on near Houlton…good for front enders. Hopefully the sludgy cold airmass wins out.

I think as long as people don’t expect Feb 2015 and understand there will be some messy ptype events, then most who like winter will be encouraged with what’s shown. Prob some good front enders and maybe even a legit icing event at some point…we’ll see. Sleet will be in play too of course. But seeing lots of low level arctic cold ahead of these systems is something that has been absent for several winters now. It’s one reason I’ve been fairly optimistic on this pattern since last week….low level arctic cold is hard to move and model guidance often underestimates it. So unlike all these systems the past few winters where we are trying to hold onto an antecedent airmass that has -1C at 925 and -3C at 850 (which will provide very flaccid resistance), we have these much deeper entrenched airmasses with -10C or colder. Much harder to eradicate and your “correction vector” as Tip wound say, becomes biased toward the cold side.

It spells weenie….each image is a letter. Ya’ll are blind, lol

Prob not gonna snow long enough for 5-6” jackpots. I think some narrow areas will rip for about an hour or two but the whole thing shuts off fairly quickly so that will limit the upside. So I think 3-4” lollis will do it inside a more general 1-3” swath…maybe someone gets super lucky with a 5” fluff jack…maybe Litchfield county or someone who can enhance the precip slightly on southerly flow.

Yep max is going to be in CT and maybe adjacent western RI in the southerly facing hills there I bet. I’m expecting 1-2” in eastern areas but once you get back to those more favorable spots, I could see some more 3-4” amounts.

Euro punches rain all the way into NNE but it’s after some snow/ice on the front end. A Euro/GFS compromise would prob stay below freezing there though and even prolong it in SNE. Still think this system is the ugliest out of the identifiable threats…it’s also not particularly juiced. Don’t think anyone is seeing an inch of QPF out of this one…euro struggles to get most people to half inch of QPF.

There’s actually very solid southerly lower level inflow in this event relatively speaking compared to the strength of the system. We get about 40 knots out of the south between 850-925. Someone is going to get a weenie stripe of 3-5” IMHO. The NAM has a crosshair sig too over a chunk of SNE.

Def a min on the east coast of MA it seems in this one. Central and western areas are the places that would see the higher lollies

That’s a pretty nice swath of 0.25”+ on the 06z Euro and GFS is pretty similar…even more robust. So if you’re grabbing 15 to 1 on that it’s gonna produce a lot of 3-4” amounts…and maybe even a 5 spot

I could see some 3-4” lollis easily if the snow growth is there. Good airmass for this one.

Euro still the warmest on this threat but it looks like it ticked colder at 06z with a little more snow/ice on front end and better CAD reflection at sfc. Still think the threats after this one are more favorable for winter precip but this one could easily continue to tick colder.