ORH_wxman

GEFS started showing some promise out in early December....EPS were a little uglier, but better than 12z.

Got down to 17 here. Coldest of the year so far. Several degrees colder than Halloween morning with the snow pack.

Yes. Very few rebound from a crap December. 1955-56 did. You could argue ‘71-72 as well but that one had the big Tday snowstorm over the interior before the crap December.

The arctic pattern is just utter trash in the medium range so it’s going to take a lucky break to get a good snow event. You’ll have a much better chance there than down here of course, but even NNE will need a little help this early in the year with that type of arctic.

Looks like cheap 05z high of 30F cost ORH tying record low max for the date (28F).

Yeah I’m not enough of a stratosphere expert to know what is exactly causing the excessive cold up there but maybe it’s at least partly due to the fires HM tweeted about. There was some tropical volcanic activity this year too but I didn’t think any of them were close to large enough to cause really noticeable strat interference ala El Chincon or definitely Pinatubo. Maybe it’s a combo of several things.

Not ‘95-96. We were 4-5 years displaced by that point. ‘93-94 it was probably still lingering though not as strong as ‘91-92 and ‘92-93. Don’t forget that ‘93-94 was a +AO/NAO winter. It did have a really good -EPO though for a large chunk of the middle of winter which is why it was so cold.

That wouldn’t be good because post-volcanic stratosphere tends to support a strong +AO. We saw this after Pinatubo and El Chicon.

We have a deck heater and may have a couple family members over assuming it's not too cold on T-day.

If the heights can migrate a bit north in Quebec like the weeklies show, then perhaps we could get more of a Dec 2012 deal where you have that faux blocking, but it is still somewhat effective....we had mostly crap airmasses but many were marginally cold and we did get some snow events that month....esp after 12/20.

It already there more or less by day 10....it's going to happen. It is definitely not set in stone how long it lasts though. I did not like the weeklies on Monday. That was a bad sign. If we do not see a light at the end of the tunnel on the ensembles by, say, 11/25ish, then I'd be worried.

Total snoozefest as we enter December on EPS. That is not where you want the PV.

Which really isn't defensible if a vaccine is widely available by spring. If it is not widely available until next fall, then yeah.

Yeah it's hard for me to envision people going along with status quo restrictions into summer 2021 when the weather gets nice again.....assuming we have a working vaccine that's been widely available for a couple months at that point. I think that's the main mitigating factor....if we'll have enough vaccine availability throughout spring 2021. Hopefully we do.

This is getting too political for here.......but I mean, maybe they would? These people are still going to be driven by public sentiment at the end of the day. Some people will probably want to stay in lockdown mode, but I think you will see the groundswell start to occur in the opposite direction after a certain amount of time has passed with the vaccine widely available. You're also going to have cases plummeting because of this. That's going to be a very hard tide to fight and most politicians care about one thing....their jobs. The only difficulty I can foresee with the lifting of restrictions is if the vaccine isn't available to enough people yet.

I think a certain amount of time after it has been available to everyone is the fairest route. Tracking who has taken it is a train wreck. For the sake of argument, lets say it is finally available to everyone in March (I assume high risk will have already had the option to take it before this), by June, you should have no restrictions at all. If you are still scared of the virus months later, then you can shelter away or decide to take the vaccine. If you don't take the vaccine, that's your problem, not society's.

It's because they are giving up something for doing that. Dogs are excellent explosive detectors, but they can't see if you hide a non-metal knife in your pocket like a body scanner can. I agree it's pretty silly to waste time searching for non-metal weapons, but that's the game.

Wow, that's pretty sweet.

If you think about what they are actually eliminating with body scans and shoes being taken off, it's not 9/11 type threats. Those were eliminated with cockpit door reinforcements. The "threat" they are mitigating is maybe a random wack job who tries and puts C4 in his shoe or tries to hide a non-metal knife in his pocket that metal detectors wouldn't pick up....or someone who wants to light a bottle of shampoo on fire by hiding flammable liquid in it. When you stop to think how ridiculous these are compared to the extra steps beyond just walking through the metal detector and putting your bags through x-ray machine (these were the pre-9/11 procedures), it starts to make more (or less?) sense.

Yep, we had to get my two boys done for their daycare....did it a couple weeks ago.

I remember reading that the amount of money it costs society to go through the TSA lines was something ridiculous. I'm talking lost economic activity due to the time and disincentives to fly, not just the cost of staff (which was minuscule by comparison). I'll have to find the paper, but I was thinking how much more useful it would be for that money to be spent on stuff that actually helps people.

There's a few required....polio was one...MMR is another I remember being required (and I think it still is)

I'm definitely not, but it has been normalized so we don't feel like it's a huge deal anymore. We think that hopping a flight from Chicago to Denver requires us to get body scanned and shoes taken off while standing in long security lines. 99.9% of the 9/11 risk was eliminated when they reinforced the cockpit doors.

Haven't had the pleasure of flying their first class yet....I've done it on other domestic airlines though over the years (usually getting lucky by being bumped to FC) Best economy I ever flew though was Emirates when I flew to Dubai....their economy was like first class on domestic airlines. For the 13 hour flight, you got 3 meals plus a "snack" and alcoholic beverages were free.

Jet blue is awesome....I fly them to Buffalo every year when I meet up with old college buddies for a football game (unfortunately not this year). But they are always so easy and I don't think I've had any delays with them. I did delta once or twice and they suck....got delayed 2 hours leaving BUF airport.