ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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Compromise incoming....Scooter steals western area's snow again.
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Saved in this thread for later laughs
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Hubbdave jackpot
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Yeah I'm not expecting this to actually verify, but it's a fun solution to look at.
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Lol, abslute destruction in interior SNE.
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Nuclear detonation by 78h
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Might get CNE too...it's getting squeezed a bit by 72h...we'll see if interior SNE gets in on something this run.
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This will probably be a really good run for NNE trying to extrapolate at 66h
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Oh yeah for sure...models have been an utter disaster on this storm. I was just saying wha would prob happen on the NAM solution if we could extrapolate (prob need to weenie tag ourselves for extrpolating the 84h NAM). Being able to wait until Fri or Sat to make a decision will be ideal.
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It would be good in N ME....in another frame it prob collapses the isotherms eastward. The atmosphere is basically imploding like that submersible vehicle in the movie The Abyss.
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Yeah I don't think anyone is actually taking this solution that seriously....all one has to do is look at the last 3-4 model runs of any piece of guidance to see how much flip-flopping is going on. I do agree with you that it could be too warm given that type of dynamic solution....I feel like the atmosphere is basically imploding over BID into Buzzards Bay and PYM....that prob collapses the S+ almost to BOS in that scenario....even a model like the NAM prob couldn't resolve that type of mico-nuke.
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Revenge of runnawayiceberg against all the E MA peeps whole have been stealing his snow for years.
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It is going to thread the needle for interior SNE this run. Prob a huge CCB flashing things to S+
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Yeah that type of NAO block would be better for the Mid-Atlantic than a 2015 pattern without the block. That's pretty stout though and way out in la-la land on an OP run....so probably not happening like that. But there have been a -NAO signal on the ensembles the last day or so. So something to watch.
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Stable-looking wave that puts a piece of the PV over us....one major difference I would contend here is that there is a huge NAO block there....which was not present in 2015.
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That's why we have always said 12/5 was a hail mary. Need everything to line up perfectly to get sig snow south of the NNE mountains with this horrendous airmass.
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There's still some non-event solutions....look at the Ukie and NAM. They are probably wrong, but can't be sure. I don't care if people start a thread though, it's close enough that we can give it its own space.
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Best event by far where I am was 2/5/16. I had about a foot of mashed potatoes. The snow was even wetter down in SE MA where I think they had some legit power issues from 7-8” of cement.
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Yeah a little less than OP but they are more amped than the 12z EPS.
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December 2015 was warmest on record and nearly snowless. Jan/Feb 2016 had a few fleeting moments (if you were far enough south in CT you got a decent piece of the Jan ‘16 mid-Atlantic KU)
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At least you’re prob getting good upslope behind the 12/5 system. More favorable look than the trash this current system will give.
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The 7th-8th event is probably a non-event if 12/5 phases like we’re seeing on the euro now.
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Neutral.
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No, you’re thinking of 12/29/76. 12/5-6/81 gave ORH like 10-11”. E MA was the jackpot though for sure. Just not quite the obscene gradient as the ‘76 storm.
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Yeah I expect a lot of shifts in this storm. They pretty much all suck for us (as advertised ad nauseam) due to the disgusting airmass....but I’m hoping that whatever happens it helps the pattern behind it. That prob means we want to root for the phased solution if the Euro/EPS is any indication.
