ORH_wxman

Yeah it’s meaningless if it’s only the NAM making this trend at 00z. I think that’s a given any time we view the NAM. Might give it a little more weight if the event was inside 36h.

Jesus that’s so close to a really big hit in E MA

I’d like to get things about 5-7 days closer, but there’s some signs we could get a nice looking El Niño-Esque pattern in early January. Big western ridge pumped up by a retrograding Aleutian low. It would be a nice break to load the dice in our favor going into the coldest climo of the year. I want to get the pattern closer though before getting gung ho on the idea.

I was actually thinking yesterday about how if this was going to make a move, it would prob be the 72-84h mark because that’s when the shortwave is coming onshore. Should be mostly Onshore 12z tomorrow but we’re already getting the front end of it tonight. If we get a reversion back SE tonight, then that’s a very good indicator given the better sampling…and just the fact we’re closer and the solution got worse. Both of us know from statistics and just years of experience how trends that happen closer to the event are more likely to be real.

This is the best bump we’ve seen since this thing went east days ago so if we get another at 00z then I’d watch very closely in SE MA. Obviously a big if though.

If we get another bump NW at 00z, I’d watch for real in SE MA. They only need like 50-60 miles now on some of these solutions to get into the NW side of CCB.

18z euro trying to scrape the Cape now.

I wouldn’t rule out a light event on Dec 25-26 yet. Both the euro and GFS show it.

Hopefully Ray has an update on his blog soon.

The main trough trending better isn’t enough on this threat unless it’s very strong changes…it needs to overcome the southern stream destructive interference happening. That will take the type of trend you don’t typically see inside of 100 hours. We’d need a pretty substantial positive trend at 12z for me to entertain more than 1-2”.

Hey, 18z had a pattern flip at day 15.

It could easily just be a few flurries. We’ve had plenty of model runs that show almost nothing. It could end up as a 1-3/2-4 deal too but there’s no reason to dismiss flurries or nothing. The PAC pattern could easily support a larger event. We had pretty meridional flow. But we ended up with wave spacing issues in the southern stream. That’s something you can’t see in the longer range. Individual shortwaves are hard to predict.

Yep…sandwiched in no man’s land for Friday. Big squander of a decent longwave pattern if we whiff but that’s the game sometimes. Hopefully we still pull off a few inches but I’m getting skeptical. The EPS mean is 1-2 inches across a chunk of SNE. I noticed maybe 25% of the members or so had 3”+ for at least part of SNE…so can’t rule out a lighter event but this longwave pattern had potential for something much larger so it’s disappointing either way.

Miller As have always been more precarious in New England. Sometimes they’re great and other times they are awful. Miller Bs are more common in general just because they come from northern stream redevelopers and the northern stream is far more active than the southern stream most years.

Mar '01 was more of a Miller B. Sort of hybrid system maybe. There were some decent Miller As in the 2010s too. They didn't always hit us though....Feb 5-6, 2010. Dec 26, 2010. Jan 26-27, 2011, Feb 13-14, 2014, Jan 22-23, 2016, Jan 4, 2018.

Euro looks worse than 06z....it really is a shame because it's a very solid shortwave diving SE toward the lower mid-atlantic, but there's just no ability to lift the heights downstream with the southern stream turd messing up the spacing. Without that, you're prob looking at a fairly healthy Miller B.

Every piece of guidance sans GFS is significantly better than 00z. Still needs more work though on most of these solutions. We haven’t been able to get a consistently positive trend for multiple cycles in a row though which is what this system needs. The euro also needs to come in better I think for me to really entertain this being still in play on the 00z guidance. When I say “in play”, I mean for something that’s at least 4”+….a C-2” deal isn’t what I’m discussing.

GFS was a terrible solution. GGEM is definitely a large improvement...prob advisory snowfall for interior on that.

It's the NAM, but interesting trend on the 12z run....everything further west with the main shortwave and that includes the TPV up north. If other guidance follows suit, that would help bring this thing much closer/further west.

Most of the ensembles are prob whiffs, but there is definitely a subset that are likely significant hits...you can see the spread still

EPS increased the mean QPF a decent amount so there must be some decent members in there. We really need another positive step at 12z today if we’re trying for something other than light accumulations.

It’s garbage. Maybe you get lucky and get more than an inch of slushy paste but that event is complete trash except for a narrow stripe in NNE and maybe adjacent CNE.

Correct. You can’t amplify a shortwave diving down when there’s a southern stream vort ahead of it keeping the downstream heights lower…it prevents the essential downstream ridging to occur in front of out main shortwave that is needed to create a coastal in this setup. So we either need to it speed up and get out of the way (ICON sort of showed this) or slow down enough to get captured by the northern stream. Otherwise you just get destructive interference.

GFS southern stream is a big problem that you didn’t see on the icon run. Note around hour 102 on that southern stream vort. It’s still onshore on the GFS and it’s way offshore on the icon.

Just caught up on 12z stuff. Not the trend I wanted to see, but it wasn’t fatal IMHO. Kind of more status quo. Still decent spread looking at ensemble guidance. There’s a solid chance of a modest event. The PNA ridge is so damned tall that I don’t mind a little optimism still…as in I don’t think it’s completely unfounded. But I do think you need to see some better trends going forward. Status quo won’t really cut it if we’re aiming for more than a small event.