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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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I’d like to get things about 5-7 days closer, but there’s some signs we could get a nice looking El Niño-Esque pattern in early January. Big western ridge pumped up by a retrograding Aleutian low. It would be a nice break to load the dice in our favor going into the coldest climo of the year. I want to get the pattern closer though before getting gung ho on the idea.
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I was actually thinking yesterday about how if this was going to make a move, it would prob be the 72-84h mark because that’s when the shortwave is coming onshore. Should be mostly Onshore 12z tomorrow but we’re already getting the front end of it tonight. If we get a reversion back SE tonight, then that’s a very good indicator given the better sampling…and just the fact we’re closer and the solution got worse. Both of us know from statistics and just years of experience how trends that happen closer to the event are more likely to be real.
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December 2024 - Best look to an early December pattern in many a year!
ORH_wxman replied to FXWX's topic in New England
I wouldn’t rule out a light event on Dec 25-26 yet. Both the euro and GFS show it. -
The main trough trending better isn’t enough on this threat unless it’s very strong changes…it needs to overcome the southern stream destructive interference happening. That will take the type of trend you don’t typically see inside of 100 hours. We’d need a pretty substantial positive trend at 12z for me to entertain more than 1-2”.
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It could easily just be a few flurries. We’ve had plenty of model runs that show almost nothing. It could end up as a 1-3/2-4 deal too but there’s no reason to dismiss flurries or nothing. The PAC pattern could easily support a larger event. We had pretty meridional flow. But we ended up with wave spacing issues in the southern stream. That’s something you can’t see in the longer range. Individual shortwaves are hard to predict.
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Yep…sandwiched in no man’s land for Friday. Big squander of a decent longwave pattern if we whiff but that’s the game sometimes. Hopefully we still pull off a few inches but I’m getting skeptical. The EPS mean is 1-2 inches across a chunk of SNE. I noticed maybe 25% of the members or so had 3”+ for at least part of SNE…so can’t rule out a lighter event but this longwave pattern had potential for something much larger so it’s disappointing either way.
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Euro looks worse than 06z....it really is a shame because it's a very solid shortwave diving SE toward the lower mid-atlantic, but there's just no ability to lift the heights downstream with the southern stream turd messing up the spacing. Without that, you're prob looking at a fairly healthy Miller B.
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Every piece of guidance sans GFS is significantly better than 00z. Still needs more work though on most of these solutions. We haven’t been able to get a consistently positive trend for multiple cycles in a row though which is what this system needs. The euro also needs to come in better I think for me to really entertain this being still in play on the 00z guidance. When I say “in play”, I mean for something that’s at least 4”+….a C-2” deal isn’t what I’m discussing.
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Correct. You can’t amplify a shortwave diving down when there’s a southern stream vort ahead of it keeping the downstream heights lower…it prevents the essential downstream ridging to occur in front of out main shortwave that is needed to create a coastal in this setup. So we either need to it speed up and get out of the way (ICON sort of showed this) or slow down enough to get captured by the northern stream. Otherwise you just get destructive interference.
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Just caught up on 12z stuff. Not the trend I wanted to see, but it wasn’t fatal IMHO. Kind of more status quo. Still decent spread looking at ensemble guidance. There’s a solid chance of a modest event. The PNA ridge is so damned tall that I don’t mind a little optimism still…as in I don’t think it’s completely unfounded. But I do think you need to see some better trends going forward. Status quo won’t really cut it if we’re aiming for more than a small event.