ORH_wxman

I mean, that's basically how the dryslot filled in on 12/9/05....it was like convective cells feeding into the CCB band and the whole thing just kept strengthening and expanding, lol. That's really the uncertainty in the forecast....how the "stinger" potentially develops in the late afternoon/early evening.

Here's the 30h height field, plus 30 and 36 hour RH fields....it's moving E between 30 and 36h...so metrowest may get into the good stuff for a time....but you can def see that it's prob dryslotted out to like rt 128 at 18z tomorrow.

3/30/97

Best chance for BOS area I think is evening when that stinger rotates through....hopefully it is still very intense. If it is, they could see 2-3 hours of pretty good stuff.

The airmass was a lot better in the Halloween event though.....funny we are saying that for a 12/5 storm. But yeah, once this CCB gets cranking and the storm is imploding over the Cape and just north, that is when near BOS could rip for a time. It will only happen though if were seeing huge UVVs. They may be rotting west of BOS metro for a while in late afternoon.

I think 12z is a touch more intense.

It's almost identical to 06z...it looks maybe a hair slower but the same track.

It's a stronger storm, but not necessarily west of 06z yet.

Phasing is slightly better by 24h...so this should be a hair west of 06z on the euro.

I believe it was the woodbury coop

Euro looks slightly weaker with the southern stream at 12h vs the 06z run through 12h...not a big change though.

Scooter just smashed his laptop over his snow blower.

I made a map of it years ago for SNE

I've seen the herpes be pretty awful. That said, I kind of like the non-hydrostatic models in this one as we get inside 36 hours. They are going to be able to resolve that very intense (but localized) convection that will be occurring in this bombing low.

It's interesting that it has the same band that the RGEM has at 33 hours where I was complaining about it having -1C 925temps and -3C 850 temps and keeping me rain....but the herpes has that same band as heavy snow

42h panel for the Mainers

Ukie came west, but still definitely east of guidance like the RGEM/GFS....NAM was maybe slightly west of the Ukie.

This is going to be an interesting storm to track from the pure precip rates standpoint and how it matches up with the ptype....I think there's going to be a very high correlation if I had to guess. Like the first 6-8 hours of this thing kind of slog along with moderate (to maybe low-end heavy) precip and that's when all the toaster baths are gonna happen. Then all of the sudden, those ridiculous echoes on radar rotate in and I can envision a ton of people posting that flakes are mixing in and then changing over.

There is a 0% chance you'd be saying this if you were still in Franklin county.

Never gets old....haha. My nirvana moment in that storm was while sitting in social studies class around 11am or thereabouts. The same thing happened in terms of gusts of wind when the changeover was happening. These big gusts of wind would "sweep" a blizzard of flakes across the soccer field/playground and into the window, then it would let up and go back to mostly rain. It did this for about 4-5 pulses over the span of 7-8 minutes until the final pulse permanently changed it over. We didn't get the fortune of having thunder at the changeover like you did, but we did get thunder that evening (prob around the time you changed over).

I keep watching the H5-H7 track (they are almost the same since this goes nuts so fast)....having those go over the Cape is premium for a good chunk of interior SNE and I think having them exiting out into the gulf of maine signals at least a few hours nearer to the coast around or just north of BOS.

This is going to implode inward at some point if these nuke solutions are right. The GFS will be too broad imho.

Yeah GFS is slightly more phased at 24h....should be a tick west, which will match other 12z guidance better because the 06z GFS tracked this over ACK and outside the Cape.

If we had a 12/9/05 airmass, we'd be looking at 15-20 easy where the max stripe goes...prob some 20+. This moves slower than that one.

The former....it's like a 50-55 (10^-5/S) magnitude.