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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    I told him to stay near the Derry/MHT line but he didn’t listen. I tried to tell him....
  2. ORH_wxman
    THe slower solutions have been a theme all day today.
  3. ORH_wxman
    Yeah they are really weenieish. Unless it’s premium conditions it’s usually pretty safe to take like 75% of those numbers. Still impressive of course, but a little less obscene.
  4. ORH_wxman
    Nice ORH airport jack there.
  5. ORH_wxman
    I wouldn’t worry much there on small ticks given your orographically favorable location on coastals. If I was west of the whites like over toward Littleton I would probably start sweating the ticks east more. It’s easier for them to go from like 12” to 3” than your area since they rely on the midlevels a lot more.
  6. ORH_wxman
    Looks like 18z euro tickled east. Nothing huge. It’s a little slower again too.
  7. ORH_wxman
    Yeah I’d probably take the over on 1” at ORH.
  8. ORH_wxman
    Give us some good ARW posts...preferably the 03z run after you’ve finished half a bottle of scotch and all the 00z models are giving Jerry a stinger CCB worth 6-10”. Need some 2015 nostalgia.
  9. ORH_wxman
    Yeah about 17” in the Dec 1-3 storm last year. Then that was it. Lol
  10. ORH_wxman
    Peddlers Daughter? I used to go there sometimes back in the day.
  11. ORH_wxman
    Yeah it’s going to take crazy dynamics....which the models show admittedly, but I always get a little nervous on similar setups where you are “waiting” for the cold.
  12. ORH_wxman
    Yeah Reggie tickled east but it’s still a furnace at the surface. Not sure what it’s doing there.
  13. ORH_wxman
    Union Station right there.
  14. ORH_wxman
    Yeah a lot of MAULish soundings showing up.
  15. ORH_wxman
    I'd think you'll probably at least get a couple inches there at the end. Potential is there for more, but it all depends on how fast this whole thing explodes off to our east and exactly where it tracks too...along if there is a semi-stall as it maxes out and H5 reaches its peak height falls....you may have to watch for some pretty big wind gusts there too as it goes nuts....SE areas have more potential for that.
  16. ORH_wxman
    Here's ORH on the 3km NAM at the same time....you can see the lift lines up a bit better. So they'd probably be maximizing dendrites here.
  17. ORH_wxman
    Yeah....on the 3km NAM, you are close but just below the crosshair.....the bars on the left are omega. I marked max omega with an "x" and then you match it up with the temp profile to the right....you can see it's just below the bext SGZ, but it's still like -10C so that's gonna be pretty decent,....and you still have good lift above the max lift region. Ideally the max lift would be a touch higher, but that will still be pretty solid.
  18. ORH_wxman
    This one might be even worse paste....the only question is if you get as much snow as that one....it's not implausible It's a huge weenie run for you...you get hammered by the CCB/deform in the evening as it slows down in the Gulf of Maine just NE of the Cape.
  19. ORH_wxman
    BOS gets a nice bone thrown to it around 5-9pm....pretty intense stinger on the CCB. This run slows down a little vs 12z as its tracking across the Cape and northeast which helps the CCB really go to town over E MA than some of the other guidance.
  20. ORH_wxman
    Welcome....I don't think this is too similar to the Mar '18 storms....maybe the closest match would have been the Mar 7-8 storm which had all the power outages. But this storm is going to be even warmer at the onset, so there's going to be a long period of rain before any changeover....esp in SE MA. If you are in upper SE MA like near Foxoborough, you'll change over a bit earlier than everyone else down there and could grab several inches.
  21. ORH_wxman
    It’s def gonna be slow once you are like inside of 495ish and def 128 I think. Heck, even ORH might take a little while with a lot of rain during the morning. If ORH is ripping snow by 10-11am, that will be a good sign for prob the 128-495 belt. If the 128 BOS suburbs are ripping by 18-20z then that is a good sign for BOS to potentially grab advisory type snows. The window for BOS is prob like 5pm to 10pm or something like that with a stinger tail on the CCB.
  22. ORH_wxman
    I remember we were like "good thing the wind turned more northerly and cooled it into the upper 20s for the second half of the storm"....otherwise it might have flattened the whole forest.
  23. ORH_wxman
    Oh yeah, if I was making an official forecast, I'd prob go like 10-20 or something....keep the range a little bit wide. I'm always leery of the last second tickle east on these compact systems.
  24. ORH_wxman
    Unless this shifts east, I'd be really surprised if he doesn't crack 15"....that wind direction is good there. NE and then N to eventually NW. Plus he won't have to "waste" any qpf on rain.
  25. ORH_wxman
    Ask Ekster about trees snapping behind his house after like 2-3" of glop partway into the 1/14/08 storm in Attleboro.....it was like 2am and he's saying shotguns blasts are going off behind his house from like 2" of waterlogged cement, LOL.
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