ORH_wxman

Maybe an inch or two on the NAM for Monday in most of SNE. Possibly a little higher down near south coast if they can accumulate efficiently. I’m still pretty skeptical about that threat for much more than a C-1” but not impossible to pick up more if some pretty nice fronto can get going for 3-4 hours.

Uncertainty on GEFS disproportionately to the north side. Id be surprised if it didn’t come north.

102h on EPS

06z EPS are maybe a shade more amped than 00z through 96h

Euro was an outlier last storm, it is not this time. The GFS suite is now the outlier (except the new parallel which is quite amped).

06z only goes out to 90 hours. But it looks like 00z at that point, maybe a hair slower as Chris mentioned many posts back. The 06z EPS is coming now out and we’ll be able to see the storm as those go out to 144.

Pony express that sucker right to BOX.

Amazing how different the GFS and GEFS are from the other guidance. Don’t want to totally toss guidance out at 4-4.5 days out, but it’s hard to think they are right.

NAO on cpc calf is like -1 for the event. It’s not your massive -3 SD block from 2010 or 2011 but it’s definitely a -NAO. The 50/50 low is exceptionally strong so that sort of make the block “act” stronger than it really is on a temporary basis. It’s not creating a traffic jam slowing the flow down to a crawl though. The 50/50 low is still moving and the storm steadily moves out instead of rotting for 36 hours.

00z icon is crazy amped. Getting big banding into dendrite land. Ukie running late..it was pretty flat at 12z and was hoping to see if it trended north at all at 00z, but I’m not waiting up for it any longer. Euro can wait 4+ days out.

Seemed like the mean position of the trough was getting kicked east a lot faster on the 00z run.

There is the required GFS choke job if we’re going to get a big storm. It seems to puke on itself in almost every one. Usually a lot closer to the event than this though.

That is an UGLY GFS suite tonight. But we’ll see if it’s supported or not by other guidance. GGEM so far says no....84h NAM (if you want to count that) didn’t support it either.

Ray smoking cirrus this run. Lol This thing got kicked east so fast compared to the prior runs.

I don’t think Monday makes a big difference. Regardless, this is a philly special this run.

This run won’t be as amped as 18z. Can already tell by 78h.

My guess is it probably doesn’t beat climo...or if it does, just barely maybe due to some minor skill a month out in longwave patterns.

Yep. Not a single run from them I’ve seen that wanted to bring that sucker northwest. Ukie too.

RGEM still not biting on Monday.

If I was at PSU in UNV and over to IPT I’d be feeling pretty good.

12z Reggie wasn’t on board either. Kind of skeptical of that threat but who knows. Sometimes a sneaky band on northern edge could produce a couple inches.

Yeah the gradient was insane. Just the perfect storm of conditions to create it. That was the storm where I first learned that the CRV was not as good for snow as Worcester. I had always assumed they were just as good or even better because they were further west. But when I found out they hardly had anything in that storm, I started paying attention more to the totals out there going forward and it surprised me how often they had less. I wasn’t acutely aware yet of how relative terrain worked.

Only acceptable at a first order site now. Spotter/coop is your max depth during the storm unless it’s longer than 24h then you can clear. I think that’s what it is now...I feel like it changes a lot, lol.

It was actually a good defense by him...he said something like “that measurement in Wilmington is old school. The spotters have recently been advised to not clear every 6 hours but the top airport sites still do. The measurement is just like you’d see at an airport.” Im paraphrasing there but he basically was talking about how it was kind of arbitrary that spotter and coop measurements all of the sudden shouldn’t clear every 6 hours. Now advised just to take peak depth on the snowboard in a 24 hour period. You can clear after 24h.