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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    You look like you're gonna get some really good snow growth for a time in the ML goodies.
  2. ORH_wxman
  3. ORH_wxman
    Waited until the final run before the storm. That's a good look though in all seriousness....good CCB action tomorrow AM...really cranking for your hood too.
  4. ORH_wxman
    The problem with the algorithm is that even if the max lift is below the DGZ, it is still saturated above that up to like -10 or -11C....that's not even close to being sleet. You're gonna get seeder-feeder easily. If the air went dry above the -5C layer, then maybe it could be sleet....but even then, we are SNE and stick out into the ocean, so we have a lot of salt nuclei available and ice crystals can form with salt nuclei at much warmer temps.
  5. ORH_wxman
    Yeah I don't think it would do a ton back as far west asbyou are, but it could add enhancement in the form of extra frictional convergence in eastern areas tomorrow AM....just something to watch.
  6. ORH_wxman
    It looks like the GFS is tapping some of the convection moisture into the conveyor belts better....it is notable in E MA/RI this run. Some of the guidance (including the GFS) is developing a bit of a lower-midlevel firehose from the east tomorrow morning....like 300 mile fetch at 40-50 knots)
  7. ORH_wxman
    I think it will be slightly east of 128....but the CF won't be stationary very long, it's going to collapse SE pretty quickly after about 10z.
  8. ORH_wxman
    I actually just did it
  9. ORH_wxman
    Figured I'd start this up....snow won't start in our forum until this evening (perhaps as early as 4-5pm in far SW CT)
  10. ORH_wxman
    It did do the weaker QPF thing again on the front end, lol. Though not quite as big a dropoff as previous off hour runs.
  11. ORH_wxman
    06z rpm (09z is still running)
  12. ORH_wxman
    At least you will return back to a good pack in NH. Might pick up some decent snow out of this one after it looking like a clean whiff a couple days ago.
  13. ORH_wxman
    That’s pretty weenie-ish considering it’s not done yet at 12z. Could prob tack several more inches on. Esp out east.
  14. ORH_wxman
    One thing that is a continued trend at 00z which started at 18z is the conveyors are looking better organized. It looked that way on the NAM and also on the rgem.
  15. ORH_wxman
    Here’s the final RPM weenie map for Jerry
  16. ORH_wxman
    Yeah Cory...3k often really jacks up coastals probably due to latent heat feedback on convection pumping heights up.
  17. ORH_wxman
    The scooter convection getting entrained a little? Kind of looks like t this run. That is ridiculous over your hood around 06z-09z
  18. ORH_wxman
    NAM looks a shade SE of 18z so far through 24h
  19. ORH_wxman
    That’s like a perfect track for a lot of SNE. Hopefully there isn’t too much exhaust and the CCB and WCB are more linked together than some guidance shows.
  20. ORH_wxman
    Yeah the cutoff line was near ginxy.
  21. ORH_wxman
    I think one of my favorite Harvey broadcasts was the day before the January 2015 blizzard. He just totally weenie’d out on the air and said something like “These are the types of storms we live for as meteorologists.” You could hear the excitement in his voice. That’s when I was thinking “he could totally do this another ten years. He still has the passion”
  22. ORH_wxman
    Yeah that was his first coup...he’d only been on the job less than a year and then he was the boldest for the ‘78 blizzard forecast....he was right and then the rest is history. I hardly ever missed a forecast from him in the winter when I was in elementary school in the late 1980s and early 1990s.
  23. ORH_wxman
    Off hour QPF Queen run again. So weird how the off hours on euro have done this every time in this storm. It actually looks like the CCB is a bit more organized this run though for the second half of the storm regardless of the QPF maps.
  24. ORH_wxman
    18z euro looks a tick more amped than 12z through 24h
  25. ORH_wxman
    Jerry RPM fetish 21z run came SE. pretty darn good run for most of SNE and CNE
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