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ORH_wxman

Moderator Meteorologist
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. Man, mid cape is getting hammered And outer cape too
  2. I think that’s a pretty good bet there now. At the very minimum, it’s hard to see anything less than 2” falling there and these later model runs are definitely giving a lot more upside if things break right.
  3. NAM has some really good snow growth on the south coast predawn and early morning tomorrow. So if they can get into some decent rates, they could fluff their way to low end warning.
  4. Looks like ICON and Reggie nudged a little north too.
  5. Yeah the NAM popped a bit late but really looked good down there.
  6. Slowing it down is prob actually good because it gives it time to buckle a bit…we don’t want it blowing up completely after our longitude. If it can be allowed to buckle a bit and blow up further west, then the warning-level goods could scrape the south coast and Cape
  7. Hrrr really hammers the Cape and maybe parts of adjacent SE MA with legit fronto banding.
  8. When you loop the ensembles, the ridge axis never makes it here. That could be ripe for a good overrunning or SWFE
  9. Surprised to see the good trends overnight after the early flaccidness of the 00z runs. I think some of these runs are extremely close to giving the south coast a borderline warning event. Hopefully we can grab a couple inches up to BOS-ORH…still a bit skeptical for the pike region but it’s plausible at least now.
  10. No help on trends from RGEM or ICON. We’re prob toast up here for anything more than C-1”. South coast to Cape still has a chance at something more interesting.
  11. 17 years ago today…hard to believe. Almost all of this fell at about 31F
  12. NAM looks like it regressed slightly from 18z. It’s definitely been fairly consistently paltry.
  13. GEFS continuing the semi-interesting look going into Xmas Eve/Xmas. It’s obviously not your ideal coastal storm pattern but we’ve seen some interesting winter wx systems on looks like the below…overrunning snow/SWFE/potential ice…something to watch…you get a ripple or vort energy being shot across the center of the CONUS and it runs into that brick wall north of New England
  14. 18z euro brought the lighter QPF a bit north but trimmed back slightly south coast and Cape. Mostly just noise though.
  15. We’ll need slight nudges north almost every cycle from here on out to get solid advisory amounts more than 25 miles north of the south coast. Your area might not need quite as many nudges.
  16. Rgem looked a little skimpier but pretty close to 12z. Icon came north like the NAM did so that was the two most suppressed models at 12z coming north and the juiciest one slightly nudging S (or at least less QPF)…so there is some model convergence going on.
  17. South coast is really close to a big hit there. The system as a whole was more organized.
  18. Only out to 20 hours, but 18z NAM prob gonna join the rest of guidance…not quite as suppressed with heights over GL/Northeast as 12z run. Not a total shock as the NAM was one of the most suppressed runs at 12z.
  19. Probably assuming the cutter is real. Still some disagreement but I’d be shocked if we didn’t get at least one very mild day. Sunday’s event is just for aesthetics for a few days…we’re gonna need something in the 12/22-12/25 range to get the White Xmas…and it’s possible we could get that…ensembles have been coming around to the idea of overrunning/SWFE potential when looking at the H5 anomalies heading into Christmas Eve.
  20. I think outside of the NAM (which is prob safe to ignore for now…maybe by 00z it starts be more useful), the 12z suite was enough to at least give a 1-3” floor for the south coast/Cape. Hopefully we can inch this a little further north.
  21. Yeah 12z euro gives most of New England a nice event on Xmas eve (maybe starting overnight 12/23)…high end advisory and then frigid Xmas day.
  22. Yeah could be a C-1” deal. Wish we’d get a 2-4” clipper for once.
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