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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    What did HVN get in the 1/21/12 storm? I remember an intense band on the south coast while the rest of us got mostly crap advisory amounts.
  2. ORH_wxman
    Trying to show a weenie fronto band further north this run too into S VT/S NH.
  3. ORH_wxman
    Slowly sinking south. We got to 31 but then now back to 28.5…but the real cold tuck is a little north just north of Sudbury and between 495 and 128 where it’s dropping into the low/mid 20s. Should try to push a little more in the next couple hours before weakening.
  4. ORH_wxman
    Scooter is on tilt. He’s pulling out the Kevin reverse psychology or getting taken to the woodshed so many times since 2022 has turned him into Tblizz. Once he grabs 8-10 on the weekend he will be back to his normal self.
  5. ORH_wxman
    Yeah let’s rip 4 feet in February and then go March 2018 except not bust on two storms.
  6. ORH_wxman
    I remember the NAM used to show whiffs in 2007-08 on SWFEs when it was more than 48h out. Then it would amp up and get in line quickly once we were around 36h to go. GFS usually performed very well in SWFE back then but lousy in coastals.
  7. ORH_wxman
    Esp in eastern and southeastern areas....so you'd prob add more to those regions versus elsewhere.
  8. ORH_wxman
    @CoastalWx and @40/70 Benchmark, 50mb split complete by D5 now. Looks like a lock. Wonder if we can prolong the blocking longer than weeklies think due to this.
  9. ORH_wxman
    It did bump north...still on the southern envelope but not as egregious as 12z. Synoptically, it actually has a really nice midlevel look from about the pike up into NH border region even though its not totally reflected on QPF.
  10. ORH_wxman
    Looks like NAM will come north at least some on this run based on 48h....not that it's worth much yet.
  11. ORH_wxman
    1.1" of complete garbage in Holliston....started like dry cement....now its like half frozen wet cement. Temp has actually creeped up to 30.5F here. But might get a little cold tuck here in the next 3-5 hours. Closer to BOS might have to really watch for little mini-flash freeze. The HRRR shows it really well sloshing that Merrimack valley air in the low 20s back SSE.
  12. ORH_wxman
    Early Feb 1994 and late Feb/early Mar 1960 are similar. The latter had a monster KU at the end of the pattern. I would say the pattern next week is most similar to 1994 with the SE ridge flexing, but it morphs more like 1960 in the week after that as the NAO/AO block really imposes its will.
  13. ORH_wxman
    This was the EPS mean 24h QPF for this weekend....not a giant system, but that would be very solid...likely low end warning for much of the area in SNE.
  14. ORH_wxman
    It's definitely one of the most favorable patterns since 2015 (not that the bar has been set very high since that winter...maybe Mar 2018 would contend too)....but it's not really like 2015 itself. Different type of favorable pattern. 2015 was almost purely Pacific driven....it did have an occasional weak block in the Atlantic, but overall it was positive NAO. This is going to be a -NAO linking up with a -EPO ridge with a negative PNA and forming basically a north pole block.
  15. ORH_wxman
    Agreed....EPS mean still has around 0,75" QPF all snow for BOS...def a little more amped than the OP run. Still wouldn't be surprised at a tick north inside of 48 hours given the vort track....assuming it doesn't severely attenuate, but there's not been a sign of that happening on guidance.
  16. ORH_wxman
    OP Euro has threats every 3 days or so out to the end of the run. Not really a surprise given the pattern funneling everything toward us, but good to see it consistently showing up almost every run.
  17. ORH_wxman
    He was prob comparing to 06z EPS which was def south of 00z.
  18. ORH_wxman
    Ptype prob a bigger worry in the tristate area with vort tracking through BUF/ALB. It's prob good this is a touch south right now because I could see some north ticks here in the next day or two.
  19. ORH_wxman
    CT is prob the jackpot this run. But pike region looks very good too.
  20. ORH_wxman
    GGEM is ridiculous for next week in SNE. Solid moderate hit for Tuesday and then a major hit for Thursday.
  21. ORH_wxman
    Fast flow. You don’t get lingering storms…on the coast it might prolong a bit with the 925-850 flow trying to enhance things and almost an IVT look as it departs. But otherwise it’s a quick hitter. Best chance for prolonged snow is maybe we can get some prolonged overrunning next week for a time. But often it ends up focusing into a narrower window.
  22. ORH_wxman
    It’s almost very fine pixie dust here rather than your classic loud pingers. Stuff out there is like dry cement consistency.
  23. ORH_wxman
    Finally some good snow growth in this band but we'll prob lose it in a few min according to radar.
  24. ORH_wxman
    The only risk of a southward whiff would be if we saw this rapidly attenuate....but that doesn't appear to be the case on this event unlike today's.
  25. ORH_wxman
    This is some of the worst snow growth...maybe about 3/4" of very dense snow. Can't imagine we have better than 8 to 1 despite very cold temps.
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