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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    12z Euro tickled colder again.
  2. ORH_wxman
    The midlevels are trending a little colder than I thought they would a few days ago for sure.
  3. ORH_wxman
    Figure I should throw in the hemispheric chart for the same timeframe as my CONUS chart
  4. ORH_wxman
    Yeah the flow is definitely slowing down. But I'm just making a note that the big davis strait block isn't present yet....this one is being slowed by an iceland block further downstream and sometimes there's less "wiggle room" so to speak on those.
  5. ORH_wxman
    How do we know this isn't going to try to run into BUF yet? Right now, it's safe, but it wouldn't take much downstream to let this ride pretty far west. That's a pretty sick shortwave in the midwest already neg tilted
  6. ORH_wxman
    Ukie doesn't look bad at first glance....can't see thermals yet, but prob cold enough for most...at least away from water
  7. ORH_wxman
    Yeah I looked at the H5 and then saw the QPF and was thinking "I highly doubt it...".....lol
  8. ORH_wxman
    GFS has a miller B threat for 1/7-1/8....GGEM had this last night as well although wide right.
  9. ORH_wxman
    No idea, but they update quickly, lol. They literally are the EXACT same graphics as when I started looking at them in 2000 or 2001. They might have been already like that for a few years prior.
  10. ORH_wxman
    v16 is pretty damned cold actually....colder than the RGEM down this way.
  11. ORH_wxman
    SNE crush job on the GGEM.
  12. ORH_wxman
    GFS finally starting to get precip into New England for the 1/4 threat. Light snow event for SNE this run.
  13. ORH_wxman
    Yeah ad the question is how much colder does it trend and if it does, is there enough QPF to make it matter?
  14. ORH_wxman
    Colder than 06z GFS....but yeah, there's no real WAA thump of QPF. It's really weak overrunning crap.
  15. ORH_wxman
    Pictures of advisory snowfall draped on the trees from Holliston to Methuen while 33F and rain in Tolland? Neighbors spot Kevin in his front yard beating the crap out of his computer office-space style with a baseball bat in his raincoat.
  16. ORH_wxman
    It did well in the Dec 16-17 storm.
  17. ORH_wxman
    Cold 12z RGEM run....has advisory snows almost to the pike. Really tight cutoff though...virtually zero snow south of the pike. Still not buying it yet, but may need to watch. That run was pretty much all snow from CON northward.
  18. ORH_wxman
    Yeah you prob don't want a 2015-esque PAC with that block....though we could use it slightly better than it is. It's downright horrific so the cold is pretty marginal, it's enough for snow threats though. It would be nice to insert a little more CP airmass into the pattern....if only to freeze up the water bars and ponds/lakes quicker. Something like a Jan 2011 Pacific....it wasn't obscenely cold that month, but consistent below avg.
  19. ORH_wxman
    Yeah his jackpot fetish will peek out if he has one of the higher totals in SNE....he'll be all over it if he rips 3" in a few hours while ORH is IP/ZR and Kevin is 33F rain.
  20. ORH_wxman
    If antecedent airmass aloft was like 2-3C colder, then it would be perfect.
  21. ORH_wxman
    If the Davis Strait block sets up like we've seen on the Euro and other guidance at times, then it's a decent snow pattern. It isn't cold at all, but it's enough to get plenty of snow threats because virtually any disturbance in the flow is going to run into the block and be forced underneath it unless there's some crazy phasing.
  22. ORH_wxman
    The rapidly developing secondary cold tucks the sfc behind it....so yeah, I don't think we're getting 55F on Sunday.
  23. ORH_wxman
    Look on the bright side....you prob just saw the worst cutter you'll see in the Dec 15-Mar 15 period you will see up there for at least a couple decades....lol.
  24. ORH_wxman
    Pike region may sleet bomb for a time....though Euro/Ukie are a bit colder and has a quick burst of mod/heavy snow for a couple hours. Kind of skeptical of the snow though unless we see another tick colder aloft.
  25. ORH_wxman
    Who cares about the damage....the snow pack melting is what really hurt in that storm.
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