ORH_wxman

It’s already come out on the cruddy maps. It’s well east of 12z. I’m still having trouble reconciling it aloft though.

12z run

A couple reasons....the models often focus on the sfc baroclinic zone which starts well SE of the ULL....but typically, the ULL will "tug" it northwest with time....in this case, they may be keying on little piece of energy embedded in the flow ahead of the main vortmax or convection which doesn't allow it to get yanked NW. The second reason is the models often underdo the actual vortmax strength in my experience. It will get stronger as we approach verification. They seem to weaken or damp them out too quickly. That said, the E models could be right. I'm not totally dismissing them. I'm just being skeptical of them.

Yeah I'm definitely not sold on these near-whiffs. I'm not telling people to expect these obscene amounts, but that baroclinic leaf is likely to be further NW than many show unless we see changes aloft.

Maybe, but i think some of these globals are allowing the baroclinicity to escape too quickly.

V16 GFS is a bit late to the party too. Not gonna get it done for anything higher than advisory stuff except for downeast.

Pounding huge aggregates in this heavy band....can hear some pingers mixed in too, but it's prob 80-90% snow at the moment.

Kind of amazing how differently models are handling the evolution of the upper air low even 48-60 hours out.

Sleet line trying to press northeast though it's struggling a bit southwest of ORH

Too bad we can't see a few more panels of the 3km NAM...that was about to be a real weenie solution for E MA into Maine I think.

Absolutely ripping. PRob half an inch down. Too bad it won't last all that much longer...looks nice.

Weird. BOX dualpol on weathertap isn’t updating. Must be their site.

Already busted down south. ORH getting blitzed at the moment.

Of course dual pol goes down at box at a great time. No update since 8:23 (regular base reflectivity is still updating)

Banter y’all.

Yeah the euro slowly getting better. You can see how close this comes to a really big hit and I’d expect a bigger solution anyway even if the upper air didn’t change.

This first one you posted did. He’s in Methuen now not Wilmington. It’s not worth parsing over the NAM run anyway but he’d do quite well imho even if he didn’t jackpot that run. He might not get 12”+ but probably at least 8-10.

One of the few storms you would’ve done noticeably better in Methuen than Wilmington.

For Kevin it could easily be an advisory 3-6” event if there’s no earlier capture...he’s interior and elevated enough that it will snow with the residual WAA stuff on the front end. This airmass isn’t as bad as Dec 5th...there’s at least some dry dewpoint drain from that high to the north. If closer to the coast with little elevation then I’d want the rates to pound more.

Not necessarily. There’s plenty of storms I’ll worry more about a scraper or whiff than an amped solution. This is definitely not one of them despite seeing several weak SE solutions on the euro.

Doesn’t have to move NW to get a more tucked track. Just look at 18z NAM. You just need a more defined vortmax...ULL track and vortmax track are already plenty far enough NW for a hugger type solution. It’s just a matter of capturing that sfc baroclinicity early enough.

I think he was asking from our point of view further south.

Yes.

Jerry's turn for the jackpot? Just wait one run if you don't like it.