ORH_wxman

Other way around, lol.....That winter was great and then turned to garbage in mid-January for 2-3 weeks. Then it revived in Feb/Mar/Apr.

Still on the ensembles....06z GFS actually had a scraper. You wouldn't favor anything hitting at this time range, but it's definitely still showing up as possible.

WHats going on in windham county? We need Ginxy to drive north a few minutes and report to us. That looks quite intense actually

If there's one time the fabled SSW will actually help us for once, it's this February. The longer range guidance really wants to start building the Aleutian ridge up and that is usually kind of crappy for us in La Nina February unless we have a -AO/NAO. But who knows, this year has acted way more like an El Nino than a La Nina so far, and every time we expect it to change, it doesn't.

Here's the loop....you can see the western ridge amplifying 3 different times....it does slowly retrograde west each "cycle".

And beyond....that is a powderkeg look. That western ridge goes nuclear. Meridional flow.

D10 has what looks like a developing miller B threat....I had told Ray a few days ago that I thought we could have a better chance at a higher end system (like borderline HECS or better) after mid-month when the northern stream becomes more dominant...and Miller Bs are more common in northern stream dominant patterns. So while D10 is clown range, that kind of look should be more common going into the second half of the month.

ORH obliterator this run....but good to see a storm there. Details don't matter.

Yeah that was well beyond my 4 week period 1/7-2/2....but that was a mixed bag storm down here....decent amount of marginal ZR in the ORH hills with like 1-2" of snow on each side of the changeover. 2/27 was actually an overperforming clipper for a small zone too. Megan was in N Chelmsford back then and I was up there and about 7 or 8 inches of snow in 4-5 hours fell.

Yep....I cannot expect to get lucky with a train of like 5 warning criteria storms in 4 weeks even with a 2011 pattern. Many other great patterns whiffed for a while before producing....2013 comes to mind. We had like a January 2005 analog going there for 2 weeks in late January 2013 but then everyone on the forum melted down and threw tantrums because we weren't getting 4-6" with every shortwave. Then finally 2/8/13 happened. 2003 was another good example...esp for the coastal plain. After the 1/3-4/03 storm, which largely skunked the CP, we had a great pattern for literally a full month with very little to show for it, then all of the sudden all hell broke loose in February. Then sometimes you just never really cash in like January 1985 or late Jan/Feb 2010.

Pretty snowy period for New England....BOS specifically had around 3 feet of snow in the 4-5 weeks period from 12/31 to early February. Not as epic as 2011, but a very good period. 2009 was really cold though, I wouldn't expect the cold to match that month.

We'll probably get a legit cold shot in here in the 2nd half of the month assuming the longwave pattern is close to correct on guidance....surrounding any cold shot I would think temps would be more close to seasonable than they have been. But the next 8-10 days look pretty mild relatively speaking. Particularly the further north you go.

People should be signing up for this look. 4 weeks of rage in 2011: 4 weeks of rage in 2009: Some similarities....2009 was displaced a little north with the ATL ridging, but 2011 is a pretty close match. Both had the western ridge displaced just offshore.

Tropical tidbits has the EPS out to 10 days for free. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2021010412&fh=0 Ecmwf.int has the weeklies for free but the interface looks like it was designed with the same technology as Excite Bike. But here’s the link anyway, you can get the idea. https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/extended-anomaly-z500?base_time=202101040000&projection=opencharts_global&valid_time=202101110000

2010 had obscenely early leaf out. I remember even in ORH we were almost totally out by 4/10-4/12 or so. It might have been ahead of even 2012 which had the epic week-straight of 70s and 80s in March, however, 2012 turned kind of seasonably chilly again in early April which may have slowed some of the progress started in late March. 2010 was popping 70s and even 80s like nothing in early April.

They look the same for the most part. Been pretty consistent actually. Week 3 is the peak weenie pattern but it looks good through the end of the month and then it goes to more classic La Nina February. Though keep in mind by that point we're in week 5/6 which have little skill. Here's week 3.

Yeah the pattern is conductive for threats the whole time, it just gets better and better as the run goes on....so even though we may have a legit threat for Jan 11-12....the hemispheric pattern for Jan 15 or Jan 18 looks better than the pattern for Jan 12th.

Yeah that is getting real weenie-ish past D10....before that happens though, might get a real threat D8.

Day 5 threat is probably gone unless there is a large scale shift. Day 7-8 is definitely still viable.

Tip got his wish vanquishing the hadley-geopotential gradient.

haha....it was poking fun at his penchant for posting maps more relevant to NYC than to New England in the New England subforum.

There's one more panel for SE New England at 144....I'm banning for life you the next time you forget.

It was definitely a weird storm....I was fairly bullish on widespread advisory until about 12z yesterday for reasons I had mentioned more than enough times in this thread, though maybe 00z the night before I started to have serious doubts. It obviously produced to our west and often, like you said, that can propagate eastward somewhat even when models are insisting defeat. So there was a chance we'd still get 2-4" or something. I managed 2" but I was a fairly isolated lucky spot. When you go back and examine the upper air, it becomes noticeable on the really late runs (like inside of 24h) that the inability to pop downstream ridging actually starts to turn the lakes trough from a negative tilt to a slightly positive tilt by the time the trough axis gets to about ALB-PHL longitude....and that's usually not a good thing. It disrupts the mid-level forcing. Previous runs had been trying to maintain a little more neutral. This speaks to the lack of "curl" in the H5 heights underneath or SE of New England.

More like didn't propagate eastward. I'll consider it a win to get 2 inches though considering some areas got barely a dusting.

Yeah the stuff in S NY and NE PA was supposed to cross SNE originally until the flow got all mucked up at the last second....but you can see how the midlevel goodies really produced back there hundreds of miles away from the surface coastal low out at sea.