ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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2017 and 2018....2019 never got that warm.
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1/18 and 1/20-21 are the two shortwaves I'd watch at the moment.
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Yes, though you tend to get more of them when the NAO is going INTO the negative phase. But 1/12/11 was when the big NAO block early that month was breaking down. Ditto Feb 2006 and Blizzard of '96 off the top of my head.
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I have a feeling it's going to get pretty active given the look....good news for NNE (and hopefully here in SNE) as latter January and February are less prone to cutters, so a lot of the precip will probably be snow/frozen. We'll see if we can get back on track. A lot will probably depend on if we can keep a good arctic pattern deeper into February.
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Brees looks cooked too...so much dinking and dunking now. But he still has amazing weapons so they can still go places.
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Long nights still and really only 6-8 hours of each day is above freezing most days and not by a lot with low dewpoints keeping wetbulb below freezing. West side of BOS there is prob getting 5-7F colder than Logan at night too. Not ideal for building ice, but it will consistently grow/thicken in that type of environment.
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Feb 5-6 was a great SWFE that stayed all snow pike northward. Feb 13-14 was a Miller A that was kind of cruddy inside of 128 but west of there it was excellent....had about a foot in that one. Couple other solid events on 2/17 and an advisory scraper on 2/15. ORH actually had 41.5" that month. I wouldn't expect a repeat but there's potential obviously because when you bend back the PJ like that, it tends to be pretty active rather than crushing everything.
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Pattern at the end of ensemble runs reminds me of Feb '14 quite a bit...maybe better NAO and SE ridge trying to flex more....opposing forces there.
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Reverse psychology.
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Couple of potential S/Ws behind that. One for like 1/18 and another for 1/20. Of course, shortwaves can disappear and show up more than 3-4 days out so that caveat applies. People are sick of hearing it, but that’s a great look. We didn’t cash in on the “decent” pattern which stinks (unless we see a miracle inside of 5 days here), but now we reload into a great pattern after 1/16ish.
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Reverse psychology.
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He’s always yearned for winters of yore....he’s getting a taste of them. It’s like a milder version of the 1980s/early 1990s
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We’re also less than 11 months.
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Reverse psychology.
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I actually don’t even hate that look on the D15 eps...nice cross polar going there and a -NAO. It would be very active. Id still rather have the big ridging out west because our biggest storms happen that way.
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WTF how much snow did Madrid get? Is that like a 1 in 200 year storm for them?
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That would be kind of funny actually if the pattern broke down very quickly after the 20th and we still hadn’t gotten anything. Epic melts. At least the -NAO is still around on that with a -WPO. Maybe I’ll take my chances with PJ slamming the PAC with a -NAO over this crap. Go Feb ‘69.
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Solid Ray melt. I get it though. Boring as hell on model guidance right now. Euro deciding to throw a cutter in there is a good topper too. Clown range or not. Prob best to just watch football all weekend and then check back in Monday to see if things have changed for later next week.
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Definite shift on guidance for next week. The follow up wave is coming in quite potent so there may be a threat on 1/14 if thats real. GFS and GGEM both showed this shift. Ukie was a little more muted. Anyways, something maybe to watch. We’ll see what Euro does.
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I actually still have snow cover in shaded spots from Sunday night. But it’s been like the same thing every day. Highs in upper 30s and lows in the mid 20s.
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Lack of baroclinicity can definitely be a detriment to storm development. Storms love to form on boundaries and we've had a very weak temp gradient between NNE and the lower mid-atlantic during much of the past 2 weeks.
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GGEM is trying for 1/12-13 again...scraper.
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