ORH_wxman

Could easily get nothing through Vday.

When was the last time we got screwed in an overrunning pattern?

We've like 5 of them too in the past 2 weeks...I've been outside several times on those days and said to myself "if I didn't know any better, I'd think snow might be coming".

Same for ORH....1988-1989 through 1991-1992 was the only time.

Eh, you get a lot of snow in April there which is part of the seasonal climo. You could easily put up a couple 40-spots in Feb/Mar and then add another 15-20 on the margins (end of Jan plus whatever falls April and beyond)

is a b*tch

Yeah and for those who don't like the term "luck"....it was unfortunate "unpredictable shortwave chaos" in an otherwise half-decent longwave pattern.

Yeah the PAC improvement was always mid-month, but usually when we have a good -NAO and kind of a cruddy PAC, the active firehose will spray a system or two into that block and give us an event. But in the 2021 version, we almost ended up with too many shortwaves and couldn't get anything to become dominant and solidify....and the single shortwave that did got crushed just enough to screw us (1/3-1/4).....kind of a bad break, but it happens. As we've preached, how many good breaks have we gotten in the past 15 years? LOL. But maybe we make up for it in the next 2-3 weeks with a big one.

No it hasn't....the somewhat more favorable pattern developed shortly after New Years....we narrowly missed a good storm on 1/3-1/4 and there were a couple other shots around 1/12 and 1/14 but we couldn't get the shortwaves to line up. It's true that the pattern was always going to improve as the month wore on, but we definitely could have scored something in New England before then in the 1/3-1/14 period. Them's the breaks.

I wouldn’t say never. Often times it’s “delayed but not denied” as referenced in here by some of us when we make fun of the melts in January 2015 and 2013. But you are right that often the best storms or even the start of a good snow run sneaks up on people. I’ve seen people obsess over day 8 or 9 threats and then something sneaks up inside of 4 days and gives us warning criteria snowfall.

Those won’t get implemented until next season I don’t think. They calculate them this year but all the data has to go through QC I’d assume before they finalize it.

There’s a lot of that type of mentality though when we’ve gone a while without snow. Everyone starts looking for the perfect pattern. Then everyone assumes once the ideal pattern breaks down, it means it is hostile and cannot produce snowstorms. That’s a false assumption but easy to fall into when there’s been a snow drought.

Yeah it’s simmering under the surface of the happy-go-lucky Currier and Ives persona. You can tell he really needs this QPF base-builder. This is a sneaky important system. If it doesn’t really pan out he may swan dive out of the gondola with no warning.

I think I cracked into the 40s on Jan 2nd....since then all the highs have been between 31-39. Lows have been a little more variable...a couple times we snuck to 18-19F but mostly lows are in the 25F range. About as stale and dull of a pattern as you can get.....though it makes sense if you dive deeper. We've just been stuck under the NAO blocking and an unfavorable PAC. Usually we would get a shortwave to develop into it and shake up the monotony with a decent snow event at least once in a 10-12 day period, but that hasn't happened. It's unfortunate as we didn't have a lack of shortwaves....they just never aligned correctly and we had a bunch of destructive interference. So we're left with this. Hopefully the increased baroclinicity will make it easier to pop something. Hell, even a couple of 2-4" clippers mixed in would be nice at this point.

Man, if we can lift 1/16 out of here just a little faster, that 1/18 shortwave has been looking better each run. The wave spacing issues though need to improve. EPS also likes 1/21-1/22 potentially.

With that EPO sig, I'd bet we see one or two arctic outbreaks over the next 3 weeks....they won't be our higher end outbreaks since the main PV is on the other side of the globe, but it wouldn't surprise me if we muster some double digits departures for a few days in one of them.

Dec '03 had a 40"+ report in Farmington Maine that Tamarack likes to call out as likely bogus.

I'd prob pick somewhere near Kezar Lake in Maine (between Bridgton and Bethel)...pretty close to skiing (less than 30 min to Sunday River/Shawnee and maybe 45 to wildcat) but also close to civilization and really nice in the summer too. I also love Rangeley area but damn it's far up there and I think you lose a couple weeks of summer compared to further south. Rangeley is more of a place I think I'd have a vacation home vs trying to live there year-round.

12/23 ice event was 2017....2 days before the 12/25 snow. That was a great December back in the interior. We had pack laid down on 12/9 and never lost it until the mid-January 2018 torch.

Hard to imagine we don't get a good system or two out of that in the final 2 weeks of the month. But stranger things have happened.

It’s definitely the lack of huge torch days that is making it seem chillier than it has been. A +6 day isn’t that weird by itself. Most wont notice it. Esp if it is screwed warmer on the low temp. But when you get like 10 days straight of them it sneakily adds up to a pretty damned warm period.

Coastline shape and especially the mountainous terrain. You can get blocked flow like you hear about powderfreak talk about sometimes up in the greens. Only the mountain elevations are higher in japan so the flow becomes blocked easier. When that happens, it creates extra low level convergence to the west of them.

Either that or TB is due for regression (in a positive sense) against them. But the odds are with NO. Since NFL-AFL merger in 1970, it looks like divisional foes where one team swept the other in the regular season met again in the playoffs 21 times. Of those 21 times, the team who swept the regular season went 14-7. Ironically, New Orleans is the last team to do it. They did it to the Panthers in 2017.

Kind of funny that some of the all time great months or periods were preceded by a month-plus of pure dead ratter weather. Jan '69 was absolutely horrific. We already know how the month preceding 1/24/15 went. Jan 1967 was utter dogshit after a good Dec '66. Pre-boxing day was 3-4 weeks worth of melts that we hadn't gotten shit despite a great pattern setting in after T-day. We already know about Jan 2013. Anyways, that doesn't mean this time will follow in those footsteps, but you can't complain about the look. I'll roll the dice any day on it.

Late Dec 2010/early Jan 2011 had the Aleutian/EPO ridging with a big -NAO. Then we trended to more western ridging the 2nd half of Jan 2011.